ATL: IRMA - Models

[BucMan2]

Hello Everyone-

I am going to ask the same question that I asked about the UKM model , does the NAVGEM have any validity

Craig

[gatorcane]

12Z HWRF shifts more SW:

[Steve]

That's the NAVGEM, not the NAM. But you're still right.
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HMON about to landfall at 66 hours (which would be 1am Sunday). It's a hair SW of the 06Z run where it's hitting Biscayne Park vs. Key Biscayne on the North side of the Bay.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=222

[SEASON_CANCELED]

Hello Everyone-

I am going to ask the same question that I asked about the UKM model , does the NAVGEM have any validity

Craig

see my post above. rarely. but others are more qualified to answer

[Steve]

Hello Everyone-

I am going to ask the same question that I asked about the UKM model , does the NAVGEM have any validity

Craig

Not much. It's something to look at. It has wild swings and can be biased East or West on different runs. You wouldn't bet your life on it, but it does have some statistical skill as they all do.

[SEASON_CANCELED]

That's the NAVGEM, not the NAM. But you're still right.
------------------------------------
HMON about to landfall at 66 hours (which would be 1am Sunday). It's a hair SW of the 06Z run where it's hitting Biscayne Park vs. Key Biscayne on the North side of the Bay.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=222

I thought NAVGEM and NAM were pretty close in coding but i learn something new or am corrected every summer

[Blinhart]

The NHC has their storm-surge maps up for Irma in the graphics section.

Direct link to the model's inundation map:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphic ... n#contents

I looked at that map and unless I am reading it wrong I don't see any surges 3 feet and greater north of South Miami... which means the highest expected from the areas north of South Miami up the coast through Sunday 5 pm could be up to, but not exceeding 6 feet.. I'm assuming 6 feet is a lot of surge for the greater Miami area.. I was thinking it might be possible up to the 9 foot range .. not that familiar with the potential surge affects on the SE coast of FL at this level, South Miami and areas south, levels were classified at up to 9 feet and greater as the max..... 6 feet with significant wave action would still do tremendous damage however for all the low lying structures, and I'm assuming there are a plethora of them... SW FL coastal areas show up to 9 feet and greater and that includes parts of Everglades city Chokoloskee, the area below is the Everglades...

The surge will be going up much more, I think that is for just 72 hours from when it was issued. By Saturday morning the map will probably be showing a lot of areas under 9 feet of water.

[USTropics]

Hello Everyone-

I am going to ask the same question that I asked about the UKM model , does the NAVGEM have any validity

Craig

Below is how the models have performed so far with IRMA in relation to positional error (note the NGX is the NAVGEM and has not performed particularly well):


Model bias at 72, 96, and 120 hours:

[Steve]

HMON now stays ashore in FL a little longer (Biscayne Park - WPB/Jupiter) so it's coming into line with the other models swinging from East toward West.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=369

HWRF is out to 48 hours and notably SW of the prior 2 runs
00Z - 23.50N 77.75W
06Z - 23.90N 77.95W
12Z - 23.40N 78.25W
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=313

[Soonercane]

This looks like a Floyd-clone to me, don't see how a storm can hit Florida from that trajectory.

[miamijaaz]

So GFS, HMON, CMC, NAVGEM and HWRF (still running, but west so far) all have shifted west at 72 hrs, in varying degrees. The Euro run is going to be interesting.

[Steve]

That's the NAVGEM, not the NAM. But you're still right.
------------------------------------
HMON about to landfall at 66 hours (which would be 1am Sunday). It's a hair SW of the 06Z run where it's hitting Biscayne Park vs. Key Biscayne on the North side of the Bay.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=222

I thought NAVGEM and NAM were pretty close in coding but i learn something new or am corrected every summer

NAVGEM replaced the old Navy Nogaps which was usually entertaining but rarely on point.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

This looks like a Floyd-clone to me, don't see how a storm can hit Florida from that trajectory.

Floyd-track is possible, but there's examples of storms with this kind of trajectory still hitting Florida. Hurricane Donna, for example.

[JPmia]

Anyone know how good or anything about this model?

 https://twitter.com/danleonard_wx/status/905841507214688256

[petit_bois]

yuck..no way. Fortunately its related to the NAM I can only recall on one hand how times that thing panned out in the last 10 years[/quote]

NAM had the jump on Katrina 3 days out... 1st to suggest landfall west of Florida panhandle. If my memory serves me right.

[AutoPenalti]

Anyone know how good or anything about this model?

 https://twitter.com/danleonard_wx/status/905841507214688256

It's an experimental model, but that is definitely worse case scenario.

[NFLnut]

This looks like a Floyd-clone to me, don't see how a storm can hit Florida from that trajectory.

Floyd-track is possible, but there's examples of storms with this kind of trajectory still hitting Florida. Hurricane Donna, for example.

Also looking eerily similar to a Matthew sequel, at least once it scoops up just parallel to the east coast of Florida. Question is: how close does it come inland or rake the coast, which was the same concern with Matthew. The GFS would be just fine with me.

Where is the Euro output? I thought it would be trickling out by now.

[Steve]

HWRF very close to landfall in SE FL at 66 hours and southwest of the last run that kept it offshore at 06Z.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0712&fh=66

HMON about to 2nd landfall just across the FL/GA Border at 90 hours
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=284

[Frank P]

The NHC has their storm-surge maps up for Irma in the graphics section.

Direct link to the model's inundation map:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphic ... n#contents

I looked at that map and unless I am reading it wrong I don't see any surges 3 feet and greater north of South Miami... which means the highest expected from the areas north of South Miami up the coast through Sunday 5 pm could be up to, but not exceeding 6 feet.. I'm assuming 6 feet is a lot of surge for the greater Miami area.. I was thinking it might be possible up to the 9 foot range .. not that familiar with the potential surge affects on the SE coast of FL at this level, South Miami and areas south, levels were classified at up to 9 feet and greater as the max..... 6 feet with significant wave action would still do tremendous damage however for all the low lying structures, and I'm assuming there are a plethora of them... SW FL coastal areas show up to 9 feet and greater and that includes parts of Everglades city Chokoloskee, the area below is the Everglades...

The surge will be going up much more, I think that is for just 72 hours from when it was issued. By Saturday morning the map will probably be showing a lot of areas under 9 feet of water.

Per the NHC surge map
NHC Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map
Hurricane IRMA (2017) Advisory 34
From 11 AM EDT THURSDAY September 07 to 05 PM EDT SUNDAY September 10

[SEASON_CANCELED]

yuck..no way. Fortunately its related to the NAM I can only recall on one hand how times that thing panned out in the last 10 years

NAM had the jump on Katrina 3 days out... 1st to suggest landfall west of Florida panhandle. If my memory serves me right.[/quote]

Interesting. I vaguely remember a single model being an outlier but this was a long time ago. All model I remember had it curving between Pensacola and Tampa after the straights but the cone kept shifting.