ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[sponger]

Waiting to tomorrow to decide to board up here in North Florida. Wind estimates are getting to the higher end of what I am comfortable with. Hopefully she stays West enough to spare SE FL US the worse but being so big, we need a little more room. NHC track does take it over relatively thinly populated areas once North of Orlando but SW FL will get rocked.

[supercane4867]

It appears Irma is bouncing off the coast.

[Aric Dunn]

What the heck is happening to Irma's west side? The whole W eyewall collapsed in like an hour.

the entire Southern part of the circ has had its infow obstructed. if it can get far enough offshore so that at least its southern eyewall is offshore than it will likely come back as long as it does not stay so close to land too long.

which is a good thing if it does.

[joey]

It appears Irma is bouncing off the coast.

nice shot thanks now what nw turn trying to come in play

[sponger]

[quote="supercane4867"]It appears Irma is bouncing off the coast.

Yep, not nearly as much land interaction as we hoped but Cuba seems to be doing its job based on the most recent IR loop.

[Aric Dunn]

pressure is up to probably in the 930's per recon.. Land is definitiely taking its toll pretty quick.

[Zarniwoop]

Might just be me, but she's not looking so good in that last frame.

[Alyono]

15,000-35,000 remain in the FL Keys per the latest estimate, even though many many more have left. This is per Rep. Carlos Curbelo on NBC 6 in Miami. This is a worrying figure based on the latest track from the NHC.

There ain't no cure for stupid.

A cat 5 hurricane could do the trick.

Seriously, though, after the director of the NHC point-blank says survivability is not possible in the Keys, what more incentive do people need to leave? If the Keys gets the devastation predicted and thousands of people die (which would be horrific), I would assume that people would take the NHC/NWS's warnings more seriously the next time they say, "GET OUT NOW!"

can there not be a forced evacuation if there is a state of emergency?

[Aric Dunn]

highest winds in the strongest quad..
050330 2224N 07739W 6967 02833 9716 +105 //// 156121 123 088 030 01
050400 2223N 07741W 6953 02831 9686 +114 +114 159121 124 093 040 00

[Zarniwoop]

I just can't fathom how she's going to hold together.

Guess that's why nobody asks me.

[RachelAnna]

My 90 year old grandparents are staying in Venice. Their building can withstand cat 3 winds but the further west it goes the more nervous I am getting. Ugh.

[KyleEverett]

While everyone gets excited about the weakening here, remember, she has a whole 12 hours after she begins to move away from Cuba before she even reaches the Keys which won't hinder the storm. As warm as the waters are, that is more than enough time for a storm of this caliber to spin back up with perfect outflow.

[craptacular]

HDOBs from most recent pass through center. Wait for VDM to confirm, but approximate center definitely much further north than previous 3 fixes.

URNT15 KNHC 090514
AF308 2411A IRMA HDOB 54 20170909
050430 2222N 07742W 6978 02782 9655 +120 +120 161112 118 101 043 00
050500 2222N 07744W 6966 02778 9632 +123 +123 162110 112 105 034 00
050530 2221N 07745W 6965 02759 9612 +126 +126 164113 114 110 031 03
050600 2221N 07746W 6970 02730 9587 +128 +128 166112 113 /// /// 03
050630 2220N 07747W 6975 02702 9557 +130 +130 169111 114 /// /// 03
050700 2219N 07749W 6962 02691 9523 +129 //// 167104 109 /// /// 05
050730 2219N 07750W 6972 02646 9486 +134 +134 170097 102 139 060 03
050800 2219N 07752W 6965 02621 9444 +138 +138 170085 094 135 024 00
050830 2218N 07753W 6963 02606 9400 +144 //// 172070 082 123 018 05
050900 2218N 07755W 6972 02577 9365 +150 //// 167060 064 074 005 01
050930 2218N 07757W 6970 02559 //// +147 //// 164051 058 054 004 05
051000 2217N 07759W 6970 02546 //// +148 //// 162038 047 041 004 05
051030 2217N 07801W 6967 02543 //// +155 //// 156021 034 021 003 01
051100 2216N 07803W 6969 02537 //// +161 //// 127010 015 021 003 05
051130 2215N 07804W 6967 02540 //// +155 //// 078005 008 008 002 05
051200 2214N 07806W 6963 02548 //// +150 //// 013006 007 014 001 05
051230 2213N 07808W 6970 02545 //// +154 //// 010007 008 /// /// 05
051300 2214N 07809W 6962 02556 //// +157 //// 040012 014 /// /// 05
051330 2215N 07811W 6970 02549 9329 +173 //// 047019 021 /// /// 05
051400 2216N 07813W 6967 02560 9335 +175 //// 044028 032 010 006 01
$$

[FLpanhandle91]

highest winds in the strongest quad..
050330 2224N 07739W 6967 02833 9716 +105 //// 156121 123 088 030 01
050400 2223N 07741W 6953 02831 9686 +114 +114 159121 124 093 040 00

050800 2219N 07752W 6965 02621 9444 +138 +138 170085 094 135 024 00

[Aric Dunn]

highest winds in the strongest quad..
050330 2224N 07739W 6967 02833 9716 +105 //// 156121 123 088 030 01
050400 2223N 07741W 6953 02831 9686 +114 +114 159121 124 093 040 00

050800 2219N 07752W 6965 02621 9444 +138 +138 170085 094 135 024 00

its partially over land.. SFMR over land does not work.. try and match those coords with a location on the map.. is it over land ?

[JarrodB]

Still looking healthy on the Cuba radar, but only 40 mins of data.
http://www.met.inf.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB0=PLANTILLAS&TB1=RADAR&TB2=../Radar/04Camaguey/cmwMAXw01a.gif

Not a cat 5 anymore in my opinion. Tough to guess the motion, looks WNW to me

[ronyan]

highest winds in the strongest quad..
050330 2224N 07739W 6967 02833 9716 +105 //// 156121 123 088 030 01
050400 2223N 07741W 6953 02831 9686 +114 +114 159121 124 093 040 00

050800 2219N 07752W 6965 02621 9444 +138 +138 170085 094 135 024 00

its partially over land.. SFMR over land does not work.. try and match those coords with a location on the map.. is it over land ?

Negative. 10 miles out to sea.

[Steve]

While everyone gets excited about the weakening here, remember, she has a whole 12 hours after she begins to move away from Cuba before she even reaches the Keys which won't hinder the storm. As warm as the waters are, that is more than enough time for a storm of this caliber to spin back up with perfect outflow.

Way more than 12 hours. Look at GFS 36H valid 7pm Sunday
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=300

[FLpanhandle91]

highest winds in the strongest quad..
050330 2224N 07739W 6967 02833 9716 +105 //// 156121 123 088 030 01
050400 2223N 07741W 6953 02831 9686 +114 +114 159121 124 093 040 00

050800 2219N 07752W 6965 02621 9444 +138 +138 170085 094 135 024 00

its partially over land.. SFMR over land does not work.. try and match those coords with a location on the map.. is it over land ?

Appears to be just off of the coast by a few miles.

[FLpanhandle91]

050800 2219N 07752W 6965 02621 9444 +138 +138 170085 094 135 024 00

its partially over land.. SFMR over land does not work.. try and match those coords with a location on the map.. is it over land ?

Appears to be just off of the coast by a few miles.