ATL: IRMA - Models

[Vdogg]

Hello Everyone-

I am going to ask the same question that I asked about the UKM model , does the NAVGEM have any validity

Craig

Below is how the models have performed so far with IRMA in relation to positional error (note the NGX is the NAVGEM and has not performed particularly well):


Model bias at 72, 96, and 120 hours:

Where is the GFS on these charts?

[Powellrm]

I remember seeing the UKMET had Irma dipping down south into Cuba before the turn. I believe its the last model that shows that southern land interaction I believe? The UKMET has been solid thus far.

[Michele B]

HWRF landfall in Miami-Dade County at 72 hrs. Significant west shift. I think that's the first landfall the HRWF has shown in Miami-Dade for at least a couple of days.

Edit: Run looks strikingly similar to NHC forecast.

According to graphic on previous page (p. 450, I think?), HWRF has performed among the best.

[Steve]

.. and one of the worst on record for SEFL due to all the construction that has occurred since 1992.

Yes. But building codes were MAJOR upped after Andrew, especially in SE Florida. Unfortunately, I think we will be putting those revised codes to the test.

For sure. Andrew revolutionized fixes for buildings. And those wind codes and strapping techniques have spread into many hurricane prone areas. However, there are tens of thousands of more structures and about 2 million more people in greater Miami than there were in the early 1990's. There are also thousands of mobile homes as well. I don't think much of the residential construction will be unscathed with sustained winds into the 130's. It think a lot of the fixes will help through Cat 1's and even some Cat 2's. But Cat 4/5 will demolish much of what is in its path. Also, look at the model and NHC tracks for Irma vs. what we had for Andrew. Andrew was a kind of smaller buzzsaw storm that booked it across S. FL and Alligator Alley. The other side wasn't very populous then either. Irma looks to be larger, close to the same strength and affect greater Miami in a completely different way than Andrew did (N/S or NNE/SSW vs. E/W). There's a lot more real estate on the NHC's track.

ECMWF should be initializing any minute.

[CaptinCrunch]

Yes, best case is for Irma to shift further west. But is Irma strong enough to beat back the low over the Arklatx to continue on a more WNW movement or will the low hold steady and force the Irma up the center of Florida

[ronjon]

Actually Gator its a big shift - run it in the MSLP anomoly mode and track the low pressure.

[chris_fit]

12Z EURO Running - INIT

[LarryWx]

Consistent with the other 12Z models, the 12Z Euro is slightly SW of its 0Z run at hour 24.

[tgenius]

Is this the beginning of the West shift just like Katrina??? I hope I'm not correct, but I'm afraid I might be this time again.

If the storm comes in through west coast then suburban areas in Miami and ft lauderdale would get the dirty side and possible even the eyewall. The end of the peninsula is only about 100 miles across, with a 50 mile eye, you can see that wouldn't be necessarily the best for SFL

[gatorcane]

12Z Euro slightly SW of GFS at hour 24:

[Steve]

Is this the beginning of the West shift just like Katrina??? I hope I'm not correct, but I'm afraid I might be this time again.

You have to take a deep breath. Landfall anywhere in the NC Gulf i's not going to happen. It's probably low 80's, brilliant sunshine and almost no humidity here today. The ship to the NC Gulf sailed last week. It's okay to be nervous, but you have to be realistic too.

As for HWRF, it follows what the HMON does and goes into south Georgia for second landfall. They have trended west of many of the models for 2nd landfall, particularly the ones that brought it into South Carolina. Some models never get back offshore, but these two do briefly from Jupiter to Jacksonville but not appreciably offshore. Here is HWRF with the eyewall across Jacksonville Beach/Atlantic Beach/Fernandina and Amelia Island.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=246

[SEASON_CANCELED]

I would lose my mind if this hung around another 72 hours with an uncertain forecast.

[NFLnut]

Is this the beginning of the West shift just like Katrina??? I hope I'm not correct, but I'm afraid I might be this time again.

Not. Going. To. Louisiana.

[gatorcane]

12Z Euro 48 hours:

[miamijaaz]

That's significantly more south, isn't it? Maybe the UKmet is on to something.

[Steve]

ECMWF at 48 hours is slightly southwest of the 00Z run and a little closer to the North Cuban coast. Could be headed for the Keys before the turn north or will come up in the next forecast point (72 hours).

[ava_ati]

I remember seeing the UKMET had Irma dipping down south into Cuba before the turn. I believe its the last model that shows that southern land interaction I believe? The UKMET has been solid thus far.

UKMET nailed the track up the east coast of Florida

[Raebie]

Uh, is that significantly further south?

[NFLnut]

That's significantly more south, isn't it? Maybe the UKmet is on to something.

Not "significant."

[chris_fit]

That's significantly more south, isn't it? Maybe the UKmet is on to something.

Not "significant."

Significantly S of the GFS. Not Significantly S of the last Euro run.