ATL: IRMA - Models

[wxman57]

Where is the GFS on these charts?

It's called AVNO on those charts. Not sure why, something historical no doubt.

Here's some abbreviations.

http://derecho.math.uwm.edu/models/models.html

AVN is what the American model was called prior to the GFS. It stood for the Aviation model. Before that, it was the MRF.

[NDG]

72 hours, EC Is coming up toward SW tip of FL showing 927mb on the low resolution version near Marathon Key and the Everglades. . It might be a hair far west, so just as I expect the Eastern tracks to move a little farther west, EC may nudge 20-25 miles or so back west.

The Euro has 150 mph wind gusts over Homestead & 125 mph wind gusts over Miami, it will still be a problem for Miami Dade if this run is correct.

[p1nheadlarry]

96 hours up near Gainesville, FL. It doesn't look like this run of the European will go offshore. The two hits will be the keys and mainland of Florida.

I was out of the NHC cone for six hours, maybe they put it back over me lol

[p1nheadlarry]

Euro barely saves Miami the worst but spreads the misery out over the whole state. Not sure which is better.

Economically, agricultural losses would be astounding on this run

[Sanibel]

If there a way to post the Euro track between these 24 hour chunks?


All evacuation routes on this Euro run are in to the storm...

[HurricaneFrances04]

If there a way to post the Euro track between these 24 hour chunks?

weather.us shows 3 hour increments.

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/fl ... 1500z.html

[tolakram]

12z run

[bella_may]

12z run

Has that northwest turn always been there? Or am I crazy?

[NDG]

The Euro forecasts wind gusts in the 90-100 mph range for the Orlando area, 110 mph gusts for east central coastal FL.

[gtalum]

One tiny positive is that this run really drops the wind speed quickly as it travels up the state.

[Steve]

wxGuy1,

Thanks for making me feel old with those throwback references to the MRF and AVN!
----------------
EC Tracks toward the AL/GA Border southwest of Atlanta between Atlanta and Birmingham. What I get from that is the High coming down from Canada is forcing it pretty far west but farther south than the other models because it is farther west to begin with.

[opticsguy]

What a meteogram.
http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten ... t=1&mean=1

[psyclone]

That EURO run is terrifying for folks farther west and is well west of the official track. The 5 pm update from the NHC will be crucial as we will be able to see how much credence they put in it. I'm going to yield to them and see what they say. Needless to say it gave me palpitations.

[tolakram]

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/905859917776654336



Ryan Maue ✔ @RyanMaue
European model wind gust swathe covers Florida peninsula in hurricane force wind gusts ... #Irma continues up I-75 thru Georgia.
2:26 PM - Sep 7, 2017

[Patrick99]

72 hours, EC Is coming up toward SW tip of FL showing 927mb on the low resolution version near Marathon Key and the Everglades. . It might be a hair far west, so just as I expect the Eastern tracks to move a little farther west, EC may nudge 20-25 miles or so back west.

The Euro has 150 mph wind gusts over Homestead & 125 mph wind gusts over Miami, it will still be a problem for Miami Dade if this run is correct.

A big problem, yes, but maybe a few more roofs would stay on if that track verified. Will take what I *might* be able to get at this point.

[ava_ati]

Wow, I expected small shifts to the west putting Jacksonville under the gun but I didn't expect a huge shift from the Euro putting Jacksonville on the NE quadrant of the eye wall.

[skufful]

12z run

Wondering how this model verifies with the NHC? I am up in Beaufort, SC and have been in the crosshairs for sometime now.

[Steve]

72 hours, EC Is coming up toward SW tip of FL showing 927mb on the low resolution version near Marathon Key and the Everglades. . It might be a hair far west, so just as I expect the Eastern tracks to move a little farther west, EC may nudge 20-25 miles or so back east (edit).

The Euro has 150 mph wind gusts over Homestead & 125 mph wind gusts over Miami, it will still be a problem for Miami Dade if this run is correct.

! meant Euro would nudge 20-25 miles back EAST. Yeah, I agree. Miami/Miami Gardens/Homestead/Kendall - all that seeing a minimum of Cat 3 conditions even with the EC as far west as it was. I expect it to move back a little though unless it's onto something nothing else has latched onto yet. I'm not taking the NAVGEM seriously. EC continues toward Memphis.

JMA is almost a clone of the European track-wise but starts off a little father east in South Florida. In my mind, its 12Z run has the most legitimate track so far.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=221

[tolakram]

Not model related but he's got experience as far as where to go.

 https://twitter.com/iCyclone/status/905857049426362369




Josh Morgerman ✔ @iCyclone
2 pm. 12Z GFS ticked W, Euro dodged way W. So I'm goin' for SE FL solution. In Jupiter, heading S on FL Tnpk. N-bound traffic heavy. #IRMA
2:15 PM - Sep 7, 2017

[SEASON_CANCELED]

florida west coast is 12 years overdue for a major