ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[storm_in_a_teacup]

I remember Ike's traverse of Cuba as well. In case anyone forgot, this is what the "weakened" Ike did to the barrier islands in Texas. This was estimated at 12 feet of surge and Cat 2.

Only 12? I thought Ike had storm surges of 20+ feet.

I dont know what everyone else is thinking when they see that picture.. but everytime I see it .. I always what the heck that house what made out of .....

Must have had those bittering agents they put in Nintendo Switch cartridges, so Ike didn't want to swallow it.

[Aric Dunn]

This advise is spot on, IMO. It may be too late to get stuck on the highway, but do your best to get into a strong building away from the storm surge. The trip up US 19 to Tallahassee that normally takes around 4-5 hours took some friends 11.5 hours Friday. Many gas stations are still out of gas as well. They are replenishing as best they can, but it will not happen fast enough to get everyone out.

I have lived in the same home in Tampa Bay for 30+ years and have always known if "the big one" came I would need to be out far before anyone told me to leave, based on my location, neighborhood and the quality of the construction. Our first stop for Irma is Tallahassee and it looks like it may be where we stay put as traffic routes are bumper to bumper even at 3am.

Get your final provisions, get to the safest place you can, and hang in there! This is not Harvey - it is Irma, both horrific, but very different storms.

The thing is, I am well inland from the immediate shoreline, and the peak surge would need to be twenty-six feet to reach me. However, I am in an apartment complex that lacks shutters, though the walls feel and seem sturdy. I am at a loss as to what to do, given that there is no place to attach shutters, and regulations in this setting are likely in place (though I'm unsure). I am a simple person who likes to live simply, so I try not to make preparations too complicated, but in this case the track shifted farther west and on shorter notice than I anticipated. Yes, I knew I was in the cone and had prepared accordingly for the hurricane season, but the evolving situation with this storm has been difficult. Now I am trying to determine my best course of action to protect myself...

so most second story apartment complex's are wood framed while the first floor is concrete ( why ? idk money ? ) so if your in an complex you know is before 1992.. I suggest leaving. after that .. well thats up to you.. you should have at least a shelter nearby that you can go to.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

I love seeing the storm get choked off a bit here. Great news. That NW quadrant and the storm as a whole has lost ALOT of deep convection. Great news so far as it continues to remain near/ on the coast as well.Lets hope the pressures continue to rise in the storm, maybe we can get lucky and have the core disrupted too. This will set the storm back hours and ours for when the time comes for RI.

[Sciencerocks]

000
URNT15 KNHC 090727
AF307 2611A IRMA HDOB 13 20170909
071730 2533N 08151W 4094 07430 0411 -130 -241 019016 016 025 000 03
071800 2531N 08148W 4103 07412 0410 -130 -363 021015 015 025 000 00
071830 2529N 08146W 4098 07423 0410 -135 -417 022015 016 024 000 00
071900 2528N 08144W 4102 07412 0409 -135 -375 034016 016 025 000 00
071930 2526N 08142W 4097 07426 0410 -135 -419 042015 016 023 000 03
072000 2524N 08140W 4099 07417 0407 -126 -329 027017 017 023 000 03
072030 2523N 08138W 4098 07423 0409 -125 -282 025018 019 024 000 00
072100 2521N 08136W 4098 07419 0409 -125 -352 028019 019 024 000 00
072130 2519N 08133W 4101 07413 0407 -126 -391 030019 020 024 000 00
072200 2518N 08131W 4099 07415 0407 -125 -381 026019 019 024 000 03
072230 2516N 08129W 4151 07329 0409 -115 -356 023018 018 025 000 00
072300 2514N 08127W 4281 07099 0396 -111 -196 042021 022 024 000 03
072330 2512N 08125W 4431 06831 0376 -094 -139 038021 023 023 000 00
072400 2511N 08123W 4585 06566 0358 -080 -100 040022 023 022 000 00
072430 2509N 08121W 4752 06285 0339 -067 -158 040025 028 021 000 00
072500 2508N 08119W 4927 06003 0321 -052 -124 045026 028 021 000 00
072530 2507N 08116W 5110 05715 0304 -037 -082 045031 032 023 000 00
072600 2506N 08114W 5296 05431 0285 -026 -088 042032 033 023 000 00
072630 2505N 08112W 5478 05162 0268 -012 -032 047033 035 025 000 00
072700 2504N 08110W 5650 04913 0087 -002 -005 055035 036 025 001 00
$$
;

[Steve]

:roll:

 https://twitter.com/weatherchannel/status/906339796003573761

Why the eye roll for the truth? Every motion west as long as it's greater than south for the next day or so brings it closer to Florida.

Not sure why those winds are forecasted to be stronger farther away from the center? It's been a long day at work so just ignore my ignorance.

No. It was my bad. I mentioned it in the models thread that I missed their extreme wind speeds in the graphic. I thought you were commenting on the track. Sorry about that.

[Aric Dunn]

That southern eyewall is going to have to get off the coast if this is going to deepen anymore...

if it does not it likely wont have enough time to rebuild its core.

if it maintians present motion the last 3 hours it will not be following the 00z Euro it will be far enough offshore and for a longer period of time..

we dont want wobbles to the right..

[brghteys1216]

That southern eyewall is going to have to get off the coast if this is going to deepen anymore...

if it does not it likely wont have enough time to rebuild its core.

if it maintians present motion the last 3 hours it will not be following the 00z Euro it will be far enough offshore and for a longer period of time..

we dont want wobbles to the right..

What implications would this have in track closer to FL?

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

Whilst the hurricane has more than it's toes still over water i'm not expecting much weakening.

[Sciencerocks]

000
URNT15 KNHC 090737
AF307 2611A IRMA HDOB 14 20170909
072730 2503N 08108W 5828 04664 0098 +008 -003 059029 033 023 001 00
072800 2502N 08106W 6025 04394 0099 +024 +006 051030 031 024 000 00
072830 2501N 08104W 6246 04100 0099 +042 +031 045027 028 024 000 00
072900 2500N 08102W 6468 03813 0101 +057 +047 048033 034 025 000 00
072930 2459N 08100W 6685 03532 0095 +070 +059 052035 036 024 000 00
073000 2458N 08058W 6893 03278 0090 +086 +073 057037 037 024 000 00
073030 2457N 08057W 6978 03166 0075 +097 +067 057037 038 024 000 00
073100 2456N 08055W 6958 03186 0071 +096 +060 060037 038 025 000 00
073130 2456N 08053W 6965 03175 0067 +100 +062 056038 038 027 001 00
073200 2456N 08052W 6971 03170 0068 +100 +062 058039 040 026 002 00
073230 2455N 08050W 6969 03171 0067 +100 +061 060041 041 030 002 00
073300 2455N 08048W 6969 03171 0071 +095 +065 063042 043 030 003 00
073330 2455N 08047W 6967 03171 0067 +096 +065 062044 044 038 002 03
073400 2455N 08045W 6969 03170 0066 +096 +060 063043 044 035 001 00
073430 2455N 08044W 6963 03176 0068 +095 +060 063042 042 028 001 03
073500 2454N 08042W 6967 03170 0066 +095 +058 065042 042 082 013 03
073530 2454N 08040W 6966 03170 0067 +095 +063 062041 041 045 001 03
073600 2454N 08039W 6970 03161 0062 +094 +067 060040 041 082 005 03
073630 2454N 08037W 6966 03164 0064 +090 +071 060040 041 025 000 00
073700 2454N 08035W 6966 03161 0058 +093 +070 058039 040 036 003 00
$$
;

[Aric Dunn]

That southern eyewall is going to have to get off the coast if this is going to deepen anymore...

if it does not it likely wont have enough time to rebuild its core.

if it maintians present motion the last 3 hours it will not be following the 00z Euro it will be far enough offshore and for a longer period of time..

we dont want wobbles to the right..

closer ? its going to make landfall in florida..


What implications would this have in track closer to FL?

[Kat5]

Hunters are in.

[brghteys1216]

Well aware of that. But I mean, in terms of landfall area. Would it happen sooner, more south, and more east?

That southern eyewall is going to have to get off the coast if this is going to deepen anymore...

if it does not it likely wont have enough time to rebuild its core.

if it maintians present motion the last 3 hours it will not be following the 00z Euro it will be far enough offshore and for a longer period of time..

we dont want wobbles to the right..

closer ? its going to make landfall in florida..


What implications would this have in track closer to FL?

[Aric Dunn]

Whilst the hurricane has more than it's toes still over water i'm not expecting much weakening.

the majority of the inflow from the entire south side is obscured its going to weaken no matter what unless it can get that southern eyewall offshore even just a little bit.

[Hurrilurker]

That southern eyewall is going to have to get off the coast if this is going to deepen anymore...

NHC is forecasting for the eye to stay on the shoreline for a long time, all the way until it's due south of the tip of Florida. Which makes it especially puzzling why they're also forecasting it to essentially maintain it's strength throughout that time. I guess maybe the land interaction could be offset be warmer water temps, moister air, lower shear, etc.

[Aric Dunn]

That southern eyewall is going to have to get off the coast if this is going to deepen anymore...

if it does not it likely wont have enough time to rebuild its core.

if it maintians present motion the last 3 hours it will not be following the 00z Euro it will be far enough offshore and for a longer period of time..

we dont want wobbles to the right..

What implications would this have in track closer to FL?

closer ? its going to make landfall in florida..

[brghteys1216]

Aric, you've already said that lol. What I mean is, what sort of difference would it make being more north? Would that mean a further east, more south landfall than current NHC track shows?

[artist]

Well, sitting here in St. Petersburg, I am likely to experience the inner core of a bona fide major hurricane for the first time. Back in 2005 Wilma produced peak winds of about sixty knots (seventy mph) in Boca Raton, with gusts to about eighty-five knots (one hundred mph). Now I am looking at gusts up to 110 knots (125 mph) and sustained winds pushing the upper limits of Category-1 status. I am in evacuation Zone D. Assuming the system were to track along and parallel the coast from Naples to St. Petersburg, similar to what the European model depicts as of 00:00 UTC, what would the storm surge be in St. Petersburg?

STORM SURGE
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Life-threatening storm surge possible
- Peak Storm Surge Inundation: The potential for 3-5 feet
above ground somewhere within surge prone areas
- Window of concern: Begins early Sunday afternoon


As of right now from your forecast office-
http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.p ... n=-82.6388

[artist]

Well, sitting here in St. Petersburg, I am likely to experience the inner core of a bona fide major hurricane for the first time. Back in 2005 Wilma produced peak winds of about sixty knots (seventy mph) in Boca Raton, with gusts to about eighty-five knots (one hundred mph). Now I am looking at gusts up to 110 knots (125 mph) and sustained winds pushing the upper limits of Category-1 status. I am in evacuation Zone D. Assuming the system were to track along and parallel the coast from Naples to St. Petersburg, similar to what the European model depicts as of 00:00 UTC, what would the storm surge be in St. Petersburg?

STORM SURGE
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Life-threatening storm surge possible
- Peak Storm Surge Inundation: The potential for 3-5 feet
above ground somewhere within surge prone areas
- Window of concern: Begins early Sunday afternoon


As of right now from your forecast office-
http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.p ... n=-82.6388

And remember waves on top of that

[Kat5]

That southern eyewall is going to have to get off the coast if this is going to deepen anymore...

if it does not it likely wont have enough time to rebuild its core.

if it maintians present motion the last 3 hours it will not be following the 00z Euro it will be far enough offshore and for a longer period of time..

we dont want wobbles to the right..

What implications would this have in track closer to FL?

Landfall in FL is unavoidable at this point, question how far west will it continue to go. No indications of a more northerly heading but the models are predicting that to occur tonight. The WV loop shows that "weakness" slowly closing up. Chances for Panhandle landfall have increased rapidly imo.

[Aric Dunn]

Aric, you've already said that lol. What I mean is, what sort of difference would it make being more north? Would that mean a further east, more south landfall than current NHC track shows?

sorry I hit the wrong button.. lol I was just talking about very slight jog just far enough offshore for intensity. the track would not change all that much.. only thing everyone needs to watch is for those wobbles. miami to key west are in play still for eywall action..