ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[hurricaneCW]

I hope people don't relax because she's weakening at the moment. It may seem like good news but guidance shows her exploding in the straits even after a prolonged stay around Cuba (via Euro).

In fact both the gfs and Euro have trended even stronger before the Florida landfall.

[bob rulz]

The core of Irma appears to still be intact based on IR. If this can make it just a little bit more offshore, I would be surprised if it didn't explosively intensify again.

[Aric Dunn]

recon is likely going to find a much weaker hurricane..

[Sciencerocks]

000
URNT15 KNHC 090747
AF307 2611A IRMA HDOB 15 20170909
073730 2454N 08034W 6970 03153 0043 +103 +068 056043 044 036 003 00
073800 2454N 08032W 6968 03156 0038 +110 +051 056045 046 035 003 00
073830 2454N 08031W 6972 03149 0034 +108 +062 053045 048 030 001 01
073900 2454N 08029W 6973 03149 0052 +106 +077 057048 050 029 001 00
073930 2454N 08027W 6963 03161 0045 +116 +099 057049 050 029 001 03
074000 2453N 08026W 6962 03161 0034 +105 +075 055048 051 /// /// 03
074030 2451N 08026W 6960 03162 0044 +096 +086 051049 050 025 000 01
074100 2449N 08026W 6979 03137 0036 +102 +081 053049 053 026 000 03
074130 2447N 08027W 6964 03158 0036 +098 +089 053047 048 027 000 05
074200 2445N 08026W 6968 03148 0047 +099 //// 053046 048 034 001 01
074230 2444N 08026W 6961 03160 0069 +095 //// 055043 044 035 007 05
074300 2442N 08025W 6957 03159 0079 +081 //// 064043 046 033 006 01
074330 2441N 08024W 6967 03145 //// +070 //// 069042 043 035 005 01
074400 2440N 08022W 6966 03143 //// +086 //// 074044 045 032 002 01
074430 2440N 08021W 6969 03134 //// +088 //// 079046 047 031 001 01
074500 2439N 08019W 6967 03132 //// +085 //// 080048 048 031 001 01
074530 2438N 08018W 6967 03133 0027 +088 +084 078049 049 033 001 05
074600 2438N 08017W 6970 03128 0027 +089 +087 077047 049 035 001 00
074630 2437N 08015W 6965 03136 //// +085 //// 076048 048 035 000 05
074700 2436N 08014W 6969 03127 //// +081 //// 077050 050 035 001 01
$$

[TeamPlayersBlue]

The core of Irma appears to still be intact based on IR. If this can make it just a little bit more offshore, I would be surprised if it didn't explosively intensify again.

Well, lets hope this doesnt happen.

The NW side of the eyewall is starting to look ragged. Its currently weakening big time. Not just land, but the mountains have everything to do with this as well, great news so far. If it continues to hang around Cuba, great news for FL folks.

[joey]

recon is likely going to find a much weaker hurricane..

sure doesnt look like a cat 4 now maybe a 2 high end imo

[Aric Dunn]

The Eye on IR is beginning to really collapse. radar still showing a decent donut.. but its not very deep. it definately still has the potnetial to deepen much more if gets a little more offhsore..

[Kat5]

Starting to dry up on WV.

[bob rulz]

The core of Irma appears to still be intact based on IR. If this can make it just a little bit more offshore, I would be surprised if it didn't explosively intensify again.

Well, lets hope this doesnt happen.

The NW side of the eyewall is starting to look ragged. Its currently weakening big time. Not just land, but the mountains have everything to do with this as well, great news so far. If it continues to hang around Cuba, great news for FL folks.

There are no mountains in this part of Cuba.

It has weakened, yes, but I don't think it's as much as some of you guys are saying. I would still guess 135-145mph.

Also, convection seems to have wrapped back around the southern side of the eye in the last few frames. NW eyewall looks weak, but I would be surprised if recon found the eyewall open.

Any comments about Irma being done are -removed-, plain and simple.

[Sciencerocks]

000
URNT15 KNHC 090757
AF307 2611A IRMA HDOB 16 20170909
074730 2436N 08012W 6967 03126 //// +081 //// 079051 052 036 001 01
074800 2435N 08011W 6967 03125 //// +080 //// 078052 053 035 002 01
074830 2434N 08010W 6967 03125 //// +078 //// 080054 054 036 001 01
074900 2434N 08008W 6967 03122 //// +080 //// 081053 054 036 000 01
074930 2433N 08007W 6969 03119 0024 +083 +081 079052 053 036 001 01
075000 2432N 08005W 6967 03121 0022 +086 +081 079052 052 038 001 00
075030 2431N 08004W 6967 03121 0019 +090 +079 080053 054 038 000 00
075100 2431N 08003W 6967 03122 0019 +088 +081 079053 054 038 000 00
075130 2430N 08001W 6966 03122 //// +086 //// 077051 052 038 001 01
075200 2429N 08000W 6967 03122 0018 +091 +081 076052 053 040 000 00
075230 2429N 07958W 6969 03120 0012 +094 +077 075054 055 038 001 03
075300 2428N 07957W 6967 03120 0010 +095 +075 073057 057 037 000 00
075330 2427N 07956W 6967 03117 0005 +097 +070 074058 059 037 000 00
075400 2427N 07954W 6967 03116 0003 +098 +068 074060 061 037 000 00
075430 2426N 07953W 6966 03117 0003 +100 +065 076062 062 038 000 00
075500 2425N 07952W 6967 03115 0002 +100 +062 075061 062 038 000 00
075530 2425N 07950W 6969 03114 0002 +100 +062 074060 060 039 000 00
075600 2424N 07949W 6967 03116 0000 +100 +061 075061 061 039 000 03
075630 2423N 07948W 6966 03116 9997 +101 +065 075059 060 039 000 00
075700 2423N 07946W 6967 03114 9993 +104 +069 076058 059 038 000 03
$$
;

[NDG]

Wow, the whole west coast of FL would have to be evacuated if the latest Euro is right, can that be done in less than 36 hrs?
I feel bad for all the east coast evacuees that went to Tampa thinking they were going to be safer there.

[toto]

TWC said a western track will take Irma over warmer Gulf waters for a longer period of time.
We know what that means.
.

[bob rulz]

I'm using this link to track the current IR presentation:
http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?pa ... -200-0-100

Latest frame still suggests that the structure of the core is intact as a red ring still wraps all the way around the eye and the eye still appears fairly symmetricala. It's also approaching that notch in the coast that I think will probably lift the southern eyewall off the coast. Of course, if it continues hugging the coast of Cuba this closely beyond that, then it could be the closest thing to a saving grace Florida gets, though I would be very very hesitant to count on anything until it's making landfall. The Florida Straits are still a bathtub.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

The core of Irma appears to still be intact based on IR. If this can make it just a little bit more offshore, I would be surprised if it didn't explosively intensify again.

Well, lets hope this doesnt happen.

The NW side of the eyewall is starting to look ragged. Its currently weakening big time. Not just land, but the mountains have everything to do with this as well, great news so far. If it continues to hang around Cuba, great news for FL folks.

There are no mountains in this part of Cuba.

It has weakened, yes, but I don't think it's as much as some of you guys are saying. I would still guess 135-145mph.

Also, convection seems to have wrapped back around the southern side of the eye in the last few frames. NW eyewall looks weak, but I would be surprised if recon found the eyewall open.

Any comments about Irma being done are -removed-, plain and simple.

Mountains dont have to be directly near or around the eye to have an effect on the entire hurricane. It can still disrupt Irma, leaving shockwaves through the entire system. I wouldnt call the commetns -removed-, the storm has weakened. Should see a pressure fall with recon soon. Lets hope it continues.

[Steve]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=100

NAM 06Z rolling in. It's about bedtime. It's a bit south in Cuba from the 00Z run at 13 hours and continues to run the coast at least through 19 hours where I'm leaving it. NAM was one of the models pulling into Cuba after UK lifted out at 12Z. Looks like an overall big trend west yesterday which should extend the anxiety for a while. Seems about equal chances of a somewhat interrupted Cat 3 coming up farther NW on the FL coast and a strong 4-5 coming up a bit farther east. Lots of the sub 920mb models had this going toward the straits via the Bahamas and not this far south into Cuba and therefore Irma was able to maintain Cat 5 (or at least 4). I figured we'd know what's up tomorrow, but if other models follow this trend who knows? Weaker hit Tampa North, stronger hit Tampa South or Big hit on the Keys and Southern Peninsula?
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=100

[bob rulz]

Well, lets hope this doesnt happen.

The NW side of the eyewall is starting to look ragged. Its currently weakening big time. Not just land, but the mountains have everything to do with this as well, great news so far. If it continues to hang around Cuba, great news for FL folks.

There are no mountains in this part of Cuba.

It has weakened, yes, but I don't think it's as much as some of you guys are saying. I would still guess 135-145mph.

Also, convection seems to have wrapped back around the southern side of the eye in the last few frames. NW eyewall looks weak, but I would be surprised if recon found the eyewall open.

Any comments about Irma being done are -removed-, plain and simple.

Mountains dont have to be directly near or around the eye to have an effect on the entire hurricane. It can still disrupt Irma, leaving shockwaves through the entire system. I wouldnt call the commetns -removed-, the storm has weakened. Should see a pressure fall with recon soon. Lets hope it continues.

I am not saying that pointing out the current obvious weakening of Irma is -removed-. I am saying that saying this is "good news" for Florida is -removed- because it's far too early to make such a judgment.

As for mountains, true, they don't have to be right next to the storm to have an impact, but I don't think there are major mountains close enough right now to have a significant effect. This is likely just normal land-induced weakening, caused by a disruption of the southern outflow.

[Steve H.]

I don't agree. I believe she is making the NW move now, and she isn't much weaker. Once she makes some distance off the Cuban coast she will ramp up again pretty rapidly IMO.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

[johngaltfla]

The Eye on IR is beginning to really collapse. radar still showing a decent donut.. but its not very deep. it definately still has the potnetial to deepen much more if gets a little more offhsore..

Also looks like it might have jogged from 22N to 22.5N in the last 3-4 hours. But I'll wait for recon...

[johngaltfla]

Wow, the whole west coast of FL would have to be evacuated if the latest Euro is right, can that be done in less than 36 hrs?
I feel bad for all the east coast evacuees that went to Tampa thinking they were going to be safer there.

Too late to evac today. I'm riding it out. Have to now.

[NDG]

Wow, the whole west coast of FL would have to be evacuated if the latest Euro is right, can that be done in less than 36 hrs?
I feel bad for all the east coast evacuees that went to Tampa thinking they were going to be safer there.

Too late to evac today. I'm riding it out. Have to now.

I hope you are not close to a body of water, the surge could be disastrous.