ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[bamajammer4eva]

Eye becoming weakly visible on radar from over 200 miles out

[NDG]

Irma definitely taking a hit but the core is still hanging in there.

[johngaltfla]

Wow, the whole west coast of FL would have to be evacuated if the latest Euro is right, can that be done in less than 36 hrs?
I feel bad for all the east coast evacuees that went to Tampa thinking they were going to be safer there.

Too late to evac today. I'm riding it out. Have to now.

I hope you are not close to a body of water, the surge could be disastrous.

Surge forecast for our area is bad for the barrier islands (Siesta, Manasota, Longboat Keys, etc.) but not for my area. We only get major surge in a typical SW to NE storm of Cat 3 or higher. For those of you who went to Siesta Key Beach this past year, hope you enjoyed it. It will be gone with either Euro or GFS verifying.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

aprox 40min ago looked ahead of the forecast.Plenty of deep convention on the S side.

[joey]

nice nnw jump there just now could the turn come early than expected

[Kat5]

nice nnw jump there just now could the turn come early than expected

Not sure where you are getting that idea.

Seems West to me.

[txrok]

Was this even taken into consideration when making evacuation calls? Was the whole state issued a voluntary evacuation?
Hasn't the cone been over the full state at most times, for awhile now?
Even John Q. knows that hurricanes are not predictable.
What will she do next?
Guess we'll find out.

Wow, the whole west coast of FL would have to be evacuated if the latest Euro is right, can that be done in less than 36 hrs?
I feel bad for all the east coast evacuees that went to Tampa thinking they were going to be safer there.

Too late to evac today. I'm riding it out. Have to now.

I hope you are not close to a body of water, the surge could be disastrous.

[Sciencerocks]

000
URNT15 KNHC 090827
AF307 2611A IRMA HDOB 19 20170909
081730 2333N 07912W 6966 03032 //// +099 //// 080073 075 063 000 01
081800 2331N 07911W 6970 03022 //// +100 //// 081074 075 064 000 01
081830 2330N 07910W 6964 03027 //// +098 //// 077077 079 063 001 01
081900 2328N 07910W 6967 03017 //// +104 //// 076074 075 064 001 01
081930 2327N 07909W 6969 03013 //// +100 //// 078076 077 064 000 05
082000 2325N 07909W 6968 03008 //// +101 //// 081081 081 062 001 01
082030 2324N 07908W 6965 03008 //// +100 //// 080083 083 063 001 01
082100 2322N 07908W 6967 03003 //// +102 //// 078081 083 063 002 01
082130 2321N 07907W 6969 02993 //// +100 //// 077081 081 064 002 01
082200 2319N 07906W 6967 02995 9865 +104 //// 078081 082 065 003 01
082230 2318N 07906W 6969 02986 9863 +105 //// 081082 083 065 004 01
082300 2316N 07905W 6968 02978 //// +095 //// 079086 087 067 004 01
082330 2315N 07905W 6967 02974 //// +096 //// 083083 086 068 002 01
082400 2314N 07904W 6967 02967 9823 +111 //// 081084 086 065 002 01
082430 2312N 07904W 6967 02966 9827 +123 +123 080082 083 065 006 00
082500 2311N 07903W 6965 02955 9816 +118 +118 080079 082 070 009 00
082530 2309N 07903W 6967 02950 9810 +120 +120 081082 083 072 007 00
082600 2308N 07902W 6967 02939 9804 +121 +121 079082 082 073 007 00
082630 2306N 07902W 6967 02935 9798 +122 //// 077081 085 074 007 01
082700 2305N 07901W 6967 02927 9782 +109 //// 077080 081 076 004 01
$$
;

[wxmann_91]

The core of Irma appears to still be intact based on IR. If this can make it just a little bit more offshore, I would be surprised if it didn't explosively intensify again.

Well, lets hope this doesnt happen.

The NW side of the eyewall is starting to look ragged. Its currently weakening big time. Not just land, but the mountains have everything to do with this as well, great news so far. If it continues to hang around Cuba, great news for FL folks.

There are no mountains in this part of Cuba.

It has weakened, yes, but I don't think it's as much as some of you guys are saying. I would still guess 135-145mph.

Also, convection seems to have wrapped back around the southern side of the eye in the last few frames. NW eyewall looks weak, but I would be surprised if recon found the eyewall open.

Any comments about Irma being done are -removed-, plain and simple.

All this talk of Irma being done are silly. That said, it should emerge from Cuba as a Cat 2-3. Land is no joke for tropical cyclones.

The problem is, depending on how intact the core is, it could restrengthen a category after emerging. And the weakening will do nothing for the storm surge. Or the massive wind field.

[bamajammer4eva]

[img]https://s26.postimg.org/cbaeunqi1/Selection_030.png
aprox 40min ago looked ahead of the forecast.Plenty of deep convention on the S side.

Looks like the western eyewall is taking quite a beating there. Good news maybe??

[NDG]

Not sure if anybody mentioned but this is what the Euro is forecasting in wind gusts for the west coast of FL.

Naples: 160+ mph
Ft Myers: 150+ mph
Port Charlotte: 150+ mph
Sarasota: 120-130 mph (maybe a little higher on the eastern side of the County)
Tampa/St Pete: 100-120 mph
Lakeland area: 120-130 mph (eastern side of the eyewall)

Hopefully this will make some people evacuate to their nearest evacuation center if they feel unsafe in their homes or live by a surge prone body of water.

[northjaxpro]

Eye wall still looks relatively decent after grazing along the north coast of Cuba. The northwest eye wall s deformed currently, but the rest is still over water.

[NDG]

Too late to evac today. I'm riding it out. Have to now.

I hope you are not close to a body of water, the surge could be disastrous.

Surge forecast for our area is bad for the barrier islands (Siesta, Manasota, Longboat Keys, etc.) but not for my area. We only get major surge in a typical SW to NE storm of Cat 3 or higher. For those of you who went to Siesta Key Beach this past year, hope you enjoyed it. It will be gone with either Euro or GFS verifying.

Just keep a look out the new surge forecast now that the track has been shifted a little more to the west, even more with the Euro shifting more west.

[Sciencerocks]

000
URNT15 KNHC 090837
AF307 2611A IRMA HDOB 20 20170909
082730 2303N 07900W 6968 02919 9769 +117 //// 076083 085 076 004 01
082800 2302N 07900W 6971 02903 9772 +111 //// 075085 086 077 005 01
082830 2300N 07859W 6965 02905 9741 +119 //// 078090 093 077 004 01
082900 2259N 07859W 6970 02880 9735 +120 //// 078095 095 078 005 01
082930 2257N 07858W 6966 02877 9715 +121 +121 076096 097 082 007 00
083000 2256N 07858W 6969 02865 9718 +115 //// 075098 099 084 007 01
083030 2254N 07857W 6967 02852 //// +102 //// 074101 102 082 004 01
083100 2253N 07857W 6966 02834 9683 +108 //// 075105 107 086 005 01
083130 2251N 07856W 6968 02814 9648 +111 //// 074109 110 087 007 01
083200 2250N 07855W 6967 02799 9639 +119 +118 073111 111 087 007 00
083230 2249N 07855W 6964 02784 9626 +122 +122 069110 112 092 013 00
083300 2247N 07854W 6965 02757 9602 +132 +132 071106 109 091 014 00
083330 2246N 07854W 6969 02725 9562 +140 +140 067091 105 096 012 00
083400 2244N 07853W 6971 02699 9531 +128 //// 064094 096 103 005 01
083430 2242N 07853W 6963 02680 //// +135 //// 063099 100 104 003 01
083500 2241N 07852W 6965 02648 9447 +145 //// 063100 101 100 008 01
083530 2239N 07851W 6963 02615 9427 +145 //// 061079 100 087 012 05
083600 2237N 07851W 6970 02591 //// +157 //// 061055 067 071 003 05
083630 2236N 07850W 6970 02573 //// +155 //// 075032 044 037 001 05
083700 2234N 07849W 6962 02575 //// +144 //// 081022 028 029 002 05

[AdamFirst]

Looking like the eye will clear the barrier islands in a few hours on its current trajectory.

[HurricaneRyan]

What should my Dad and half-sis expect in Wachee Weeki? That's in Hernando County.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

[img]https://s26.postimg.org/cbaeunqi1/Selection_030.png
aprox 40min ago looked ahead of the forecast.Plenty of deep convention on the S side.

Looks like the western eyewall is taking quite a beating there. Good news maybe??

TBH i would not be surprised at all too see the eyewall fill in and cane organise a new pin-eye structure.

[Sciencerocks]

000
URNT15 KNHC 090847
AF307 2611A IRMA HDOB 21 20170909
083730 2233N 07848W 6963 02568 //// +155 //// 073016 019 026 000 01
083800 2231N 07848W 6962 02557 //// +154 //// 061011 015 034 001 05
083830 2229N 07847W 6966 02559 //// +156 //// 042004 008 014 000 05
083900 2228N 07846W 6969 02558 //// +155 //// 267006 008 012 001 05
083930 2226N 07845W 6968 02561 //// +154 //// 244016 021 025 003 01
084000 2225N 07843W 6966 02579 //// +151 //// 231034 044 027 003 05
084030 2224N 07841W 6967 02581 9372 +148 //// 226058 063 060 005 01
084100 2224N 07839W 6969 02603 9393 +153 //// 220073 080 074 008 01
084130 2224N 07837W 6967 02630 9425 +152 +152 214095 101 084 006 00
084200 2224N 07835W 6979 02647 9463 +147 //// 209101 102 098 011 01
084230 2224N 07832W 6966 02697 9497 +144 +144 204097 099 101 010 00
084300 2224N 07830W 6960 02734 9542 +141 //// 205098 102 096 011 01
084330 2223N 07829W 6980 02734 9592 +131 //// 204100 102 090 014 01
084400 2222N 07827W 6966 02773 9606 +138 +138 203099 102 091 012 00
084430 2222N 07826W 6963 02787 9616 +127 //// 205097 098 087 007 01
084500 2221N 07826W 6963 02815 9648 +137 +137 207095 098 086 012 00
084530 2219N 07825W 6984 02807 9686 +128 +128 203096 097 085 013 00
084600 2219N 07824W 6972 02833 9712 +109 //// 201098 099 077 012 05
084630 2218N 07822W 6962 02863 9736 +100 //// 202097 098 074 012 01
084700 2217N 07821W 6963 02875 9750 +109 +109 201094 097 073 012 03
$$
;

[Extratropical94]

Extrapolated pressure in the upper 930s. Winds only support 105 knots so far.

[johngaltfla]

I hope you are not close to a body of water, the surge could be disastrous.

Surge forecast for our area is bad for the barrier islands (Siesta, Manasota, Longboat Keys, etc.) but not for my area. We only get major surge in a typical SW to NE storm of Cat 3 or higher. For those of you who went to Siesta Key Beach this past year, hope you enjoyed it. It will be gone with either Euro or GFS verifying.

Just keep a look out the new surge forecast now that the track has been shifted a little more to the west, even more with the Euro shifting more west.

We're good. The people to the West of me and near coastal Charlotte county? Not so much.