ATL: IRMA - Models

[otowntiger]

The 12z Euro gives me more confidence about the NHC being pretty close to correct. Near worst case scenario for Miami.

Agreed- it's almost like an anchor keeping the official track from shifting east. It is kinda counteracting some of the tugs to the east but not weighty enough to pull it back west at all in my opinion.

[northjaxpro]

Now I hope that Morgan & Morgan sues all those TV Stations that were making it sound like the models were going to keep trending east making people think that FL was in the all clear

Yeah, Irma is going a bit farther west and now in this latest EURO run. This is just my worst fear if it comes to verify. This is really terrible here with this trend now! Yeah, the Donna analog will really be highlighted if this EURO run verifies like this.

[skufful]

Can anyone explain why the westward shift with the models? Is it just a weaker shortwave diving in from the Lower & Mid-MS Valley and a stronger Bermuda/Azores high or what seems to be driving this change?

Look at post 9132 on page 457. I was provided a most excellent explanation.

[otowntiger]

Now I hope that Morgan & Morgan sues all those TV Stations that were making it sound like the models were going to keep trending east making people think that FL was in the all clear

Yeah, Irma is going a bit farther west and now in this latest EURO run. This is just my worst fear if it comes to verify. This is really terrible here with this trend now!

yep- if that Euro run verifies(huge 'if') it could bring 100+ mph winds to Just about the whole peninsula.

[txwatcher91]

For whatever reason I've noticed the 06z and 12z runs seem to shift west while the 18z and 00z have been shifting east. Anyone else notice this and have any idea why? FWIW, the latest NAM is back north and a little weaker with the ridge so it wouldn't surprise me to see 18z models shift back east again. Despite these adjustments we are at the point where the storm will hit Florida; the question is which side and how far inland? We may not know that until the turn occurs.

Also, Irma is a little north of the forecast points so far today.

[Pughetime12]

For whatever reason I've noticed the 06z and 12z runs seem to shift west while the 18z and 00z have been shifting east. Anyone else notice this and have any idea why? FWIW, the latest NAM is back north and a little weaker with the ridge so it wouldn't surprise me to see 18z models shift back east again. Despite these adjustments we are at the point where the storm will hit Florida; the question is which side and how far inland? We may not know that until the turn occurs.

Also, Irma is a little north of the forecast points so far today.

I noticed that as well, seems like just before bed and when I wake up I see it shift east and then west during the day....very stressful. If Irma continues north of forecast points, what impact would that have?

[Steve]

For whatever reason I've noticed the 06z and 12z runs seem to shift west while the 18z and 00z have been shifting east. Anyone else notice this and have any idea why? FWIW, the latest NAM is back north and a little weaker with the ridge so it wouldn't surprise me to see 18z models shift back east again. Despite these adjustments we are at the point where the storm will hit Florida; the question is which side and how far inland? We may not know that until the turn occurs.

Also, Irma is a little north of the forecast points so far today.

Seems a little faster at 45 hours than the last run. Same trajectory though just from a point a little farther north of the Cuban coast. As for the forecast points, someone posted on the discussion thread that a few were south of actual, and someone else chimed back that it was smoothing out back west (stair stepping was guessed at). I haven't made much time for the discussion thread because this one has been a beast.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=571

[Pughetime12]

For whatever reason I've noticed the 06z and 12z runs seem to shift west while the 18z and 00z have been shifting east. Anyone else notice this and have any idea why? FWIW, the latest NAM is back north and a little weaker with the ridge so it wouldn't surprise me to see 18z models shift back east again. Despite these adjustments we are at the point where the storm will hit Florida; the question is which side and how far inland? We may not know that until the turn occurs.

Also, Irma is a little north of the forecast points so far today.

Seems a little faster at 45 hours than the last run. Same trajectory though just from a point a little farther north of the Cuban coast. As for the forecast points, someone posted on the discussion thread that a few were south of actual, and someone else chimed back that it was smoothing out back west (stair stepping was guessed at). I haven't made much time for the discussion thread because this one has been a beast.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=571

looks east of where 12z was

[skufful]

Decent shift west NHC 5 Pm

[txwatcher91]

For whatever reason I've noticed the 06z and 12z runs seem to shift west while the 18z and 00z have been shifting east. Anyone else notice this and have any idea why? FWIW, the latest NAM is back north and a little weaker with the ridge so it wouldn't surprise me to see 18z models shift back east again. Despite these adjustments we are at the point where the storm will hit Florida; the question is which side and how far inland? We may not know that until the turn occurs.

Also, Irma is a little north of the forecast points so far today.

Seems a little faster at 45 hours than the last run. Same trajectory though just from a point a little farther north of the Cuban coast. As for the forecast points, someone posted on the discussion thread that a few were south of actual, and someone else chimed back that it was smoothing out back west (stair stepping was guessed at). I haven't made much time for the discussion thread because this one has been a beast.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=571

Yeah we will have to keep an eye out (no pun intended) to see if it continues going N of the forecast points. The latest plot on the NHC page has it a good bit north of the forecast point, I'm not sure how many miles it is though. Far enough north and this will feel the weakness developing a little quicker, and also interact with the trough a bit more. A faster motion will also help with that which is why the 18z NAM is probably a little bit north this run.

[Pughetime12]

For whatever reason I've noticed the 06z and 12z runs seem to shift west while the 18z and 00z have been shifting east. Anyone else notice this and have any idea why? FWIW, the latest NAM is back north and a little weaker with the ridge so it wouldn't surprise me to see 18z models shift back east again. Despite these adjustments we are at the point where the storm will hit Florida; the question is which side and how far inland? We may not know that until the turn occurs.

Also, Irma is a little north of the forecast points so far today.

Seems a little faster at 45 hours than the last run. Same trajectory though just from a point a little farther north of the Cuban coast. As for the forecast points, someone posted on the discussion thread that a few were south of actual, and someone else chimed back that it was smoothing out back west (stair stepping was guessed at). I haven't made much time for the discussion thread because this one has been a beast.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=571

Yeah we will have to keep an eye out (no pun intended) to see if it continues going N of the forecast points. The latest plot on the NHC page has it a good bit north of the forecast point, I'm not sure how many miles it is though. Far enough north and this will feel the weakness developing a little quicker, and also interact with the trough a bit more. A faster motion will also help with that which is why the 18z NAM is probably a little bit north this run.

Would it going more north and interacting with the trough more push it more W or E? Sorry for the questions, you sniffed out the GFS East shift early a couple of days ago and Euro followed suit as did the NHC...so you seem like you are on top of it!

[gatorcane]

NAM shifts slightly east:

[MetroMike]

Cant get the latest graphic for 5pm someone?

[txwatcher91]

Seems a little faster at 45 hours than the last run. Same trajectory though just from a point a little farther north of the Cuban coast. As for the forecast points, someone posted on the discussion thread that a few were south of actual, and someone else chimed back that it was smoothing out back west (stair stepping was guessed at). I haven't made much time for the discussion thread because this one has been a beast.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=571

Yeah we will have to keep an eye out (no pun intended) to see if it continues going N of the forecast points. The latest plot on the NHC page has it a good bit north of the forecast point, I'm not sure how many miles it is though. Far enough north and this will feel the weakness developing a little quicker, and also interact with the trough a bit more. A faster motion will also help with that which is why the 18z NAM is probably a little bit north this run.

Would it going more north and interacting the trough more push it more W or E? Sorry for the questions, you sniffed out the GFS East Shift early a couple of days ago and Euro followed suit as did the NHC...so you seem like you are on top of it!

In this situation the trough is located over the Northeast US and would help to pull Irma north. If Irma is slower and/or further south as the trough exits, then there will be less of a "pull" to the north and you get a western scenario like the Euro showed today. If Irma is a little faster and further north it will be pulled to the north a little more and also accelerate as it does so. That's why when you compare the 12z NAM with the 18z NAM you find the 18z run is much faster by the end of the run and further east/north. The runs of the GFS and Euro that show a similar track also interact with the trough more and move Irma quicker. IMO, the bullseye is going to be Miami for this one as I see it getting pulled north into the weakness a little quicker than some models indicate, but all of Florida needs to be prepared as nothing is certain regarding exact landfall location.

[seaswing]

For whatever reason I've noticed the 06z and 12z runs seem to shift west while the 18z and 00z have been shifting east. Anyone else notice this and have any idea why? FWIW, the latest NAM is back north and a little weaker with the ridge so it wouldn't surprise me to see 18z models shift back east again. Despite these adjustments we are at the point where the storm will hit Florida; the question is which side and how far inland? We may not know that until the turn occurs.

Also, Irma is a little north of the forecast points so far today.

I noticed that as well, seems like just before bed and when I wake up I see it shift east and then west during the day....very stressful. If Irma continues north of forecast points, what impact would that have?

This is whats called the "Wobble" for years I have watched these storms do this over and over. They will do it many times in a 24 hr period. Try not to pay too much attention to them unless/until it trends. That's why the Hurricane Center doesn't change the forecast everytime a Wobble occurs. It will just drive you crazy.

[Pughetime12]

Yeah we will have to keep an eye out (no pun intended) to see if it continues going N of the forecast points. The latest plot on the NHC page has it a good bit north of the forecast point, I'm not sure how many miles it is though. Far enough north and this will feel the weakness developing a little quicker, and also interact with the trough a bit more. A faster motion will also help with that which is why the 18z NAM is probably a little bit north this run.

Would it going more north and interacting the trough more push it more W or E? Sorry for the questions, you sniffed out the GFS East Shift early a couple of days ago and Euro followed suit as did the NHC...so you seem like you are on top of it!

In this situation the trough is located over the Northeast US and would help to pull Irma north. If Irma is slower and/or further south as the trough exits, then there will be less of a "pull" to the north and you get a western scenario like the Euro showed today. If Irma is a little faster and further north it will be pulled to the north a little more and also accelerate as it does so. That's why when you compare the 12z NAM with the 18z NAM you find the 18z run is much faster by the end of the run and further east/north. The runs of the GFS and Euro that show a similar track also interact with the trough more and move Irma quicker. IMO, the bullseye is going to be Miami for this one as I see it getting pulled north into the weakness a little quicker than some models indicate, but all of Florida needs to be prepared as nothing is certain regarding exact landfall location.

Thanks for the explanation! If it pulls north sooner, would that NW shift that happens in GA/SC happen sooner?

[txwatcher91]

Would it going more north and interacting the trough more push it more W or E? Sorry for the questions, you sniffed out the GFS East Shift early a couple of days ago and Euro followed suit as did the NHC...so you seem like you are on top of it!

In this situation the trough is located over the Northeast US and would help to pull Irma north. If Irma is slower and/or further south as the trough exits, then there will be less of a "pull" to the north and you get a western scenario like the Euro showed today. If Irma is a little faster and further north it will be pulled to the north a little more and also accelerate as it does so. That's why when you compare the 12z NAM with the 18z NAM you find the 18z run is much faster by the end of the run and further east/north. The runs of the GFS and Euro that show a similar track also interact with the trough more and move Irma quicker. IMO, the bullseye is going to be Miami for this one as I see it getting pulled north into the weakness a little quicker than some models indicate, but all of Florida needs to be prepared as nothing is certain regarding exact landfall location.

Thanks for the explanation! If it pulls north sooner, would that NW shift that happens in GA/SC happen sooner?

If it gets pulled north sooner then it would actually have more time to go over the open waters before being pulled back NW by the shortwave dropping down from the Midwest. The SC/GA line looks like the consensus landfall point if this does actually take the eastern route whereas a slower/south one like the Euro/UK gives you the west or central FL track. Both are possible and all depend on the interaction with the trough and forward speed of Irma. The fact she's tracking N of her forecast points still is one sign that the eastern solution MIGHT occur, but still too early to know.

[tolakram]

[chargurl]

Hey all!
When posting the GIF's of projections, could you expand to include Carolinas and Georgia? I am in Northeast Georgia, and would like to see more of what impacts we could feel. We have trees fall here, on a sunny day.

Thank you!!

[forecasterjack]

Noticeable shift west in Irma's track forecast today. Compare last 4 runs of ECMWF EPS for free via menus: 

https://weather.us/cyclone-tracks/euro/ ... 2-240.html