ATL: FOUR - Remnants - Discussion

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Re: ATL: FOUR - Remnants - Discussion

#921 Postby tailgater » Mon Jul 10, 2017 7:53 am

850 vorticity is really lacking any definition
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8vorZ.GIF time sensitive.
But the best low level convergence has been in a few days
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8convZ.GIF
still should get a 20/ 30 percent chance of redevelopment IMHO.
Last edited by tailgater on Mon Jul 10, 2017 8:20 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: FOUR - Remnants - Discussion

#922 Postby AtlanticWind » Mon Jul 10, 2017 7:56 am

Aric Dunn wrote:
AtlanticWind wrote:Have to say would be very surprised if this does not get a mention at 2pm TWO


lol... technically it should be around 75 percent with a recon on it way...

Right now I'll take recognition that it exists :)
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Re: ATL: FOUR - Remnants - Discussion

#923 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Jul 10, 2017 7:59 am

ooopps looks like they cut the satellite feeds.. I guess they dont want anyone to see it now.

j/k my nasa sat pages wont update for the last 30 in for some reason..
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Re: ATL: FOUR - Remnants - Discussion

#924 Postby GCANE » Mon Jul 10, 2017 8:01 am

UL Divergence rapidly strengthening.

Can tell looking at the tops of the thuderstorms firing along the wave axis.
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Re: ATL: FOUR - Remnants - Discussion

#925 Postby AtlanticWind » Mon Jul 10, 2017 8:02 am

This should be an invest,as it could affect the bahamas in a couple of days
Last edited by AtlanticWind on Mon Jul 10, 2017 8:03 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: FOUR - Remnants - Discussion

#926 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Jul 10, 2017 8:02 am

GCANE wrote:UL Divergence rapidly strengthening.

Can tell looking at the tops of the thuderstorms firing along the wave axis.


yeah its well on its way now.. by the time they mention it and send recon we might have a strengthening moderate TS lol

its happened a few time.
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Re: ATL: FOUR - Remnants - Discussion

#927 Postby tolakram » Mon Jul 10, 2017 8:06 am

SLIDER view

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=full_disk&x=15669&y=6199&z=5&im=12&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=1&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&s=rammb-slider
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Re: ATL: FOUR - Remnants - Discussion

#928 Postby GCANE » Mon Jul 10, 2017 8:07 am

Aric Dunn wrote:
GCANE wrote:UL Divergence rapidly strengthening.

Can tell looking at the tops of the thuderstorms firing along the wave axis.


yeah its well on its way now.. by the time they mention it and send recon we might have a strengthening moderate TS lol

its happened a few time.


Its really cranking now. Those 3 VHTs this morning I believed did the trick.
The high helicity they have at the surface is able to couple the mid-level vort down to the surface.
Its kind of like having three hand mixers going in a bucket of swirling water.
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Re: ATL: FOUR - Remnants - Discussion

#929 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Jul 10, 2017 8:09 am

well this should be enough...

see a number of westerly ish barbs. lower half cut off though..

https://manati.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/win ... 9_noaa.png
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Re: ATL: FOUR - Remnants - Discussion

#930 Postby AtlanticWind » Mon Jul 10, 2017 8:11 am

Aric Dunn wrote:well this should be enough...

see a number of westerly ish barbs. lower half cut off though..

https://manati.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/windsat_images/wdsp_cur/zooms_noaa/WMBas19_noaa.png

Not getting the image
Last edited by tolakram on Mon Jul 10, 2017 8:12 am, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: changed image embed to URL link
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Re: ATL: FOUR - Remnants - Discussion

#931 Postby tolakram » Mon Jul 10, 2017 8:11 am

Longer IR loop

Convection has not been persistent for that long IMO. If it continues maybe a mention, or maybe a special update.

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=full_disk&x=15669&y=6199&z=4&im=42&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=14&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&s=rammb-slider
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Re: ATL: FOUR - Remnants - Discussion

#932 Postby GCANE » Mon Jul 10, 2017 8:12 am

Aric Dunn wrote:well this should be enough...

see a number of westerly ish barbs. lower half cut off though..


IMHO, they should be tasking recon on this.
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Re: ATL: FOUR - Remnants - Discussion

#933 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Jul 10, 2017 8:14 am

AtlanticWind wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:well this should be enough...

see a number of westerly ish barbs. lower half cut off though..

https://manati.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/windsat_images/wdsp_cur/zooms_noaa/WMBas19_noaa.png

Not getting the image


was from yesterday evening... nevermind.. still showed what looks like a closed circ yesterday


http://images.remss.com/graphics/windsc ... 9692359773
Last edited by tolakram on Mon Jul 10, 2017 8:19 am, edited 2 times in total.
Reason: removed direct image link, please upload to an image hosting site first
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Re: ATL: FOUR - Remnants - Discussion

#934 Postby RL3AO » Mon Jul 10, 2017 8:15 am

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/884399403343253504


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Re: ATL: FOUR - Remnants - Discussion

#935 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Jul 10, 2017 8:16 am

RL3AO wrote:https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/884399403343253504


he didn't look at satellite this morning lol
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Re: ATL: FOUR - Remnants - Discussion

#936 Postby gfsperpendicular » Mon Jul 10, 2017 8:21 am

RL3AO wrote:https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/884399403343253504


Unless I read it wrong, that means 04L has between 70 and 80% chances of development. How is that grim :?:
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Re: ATL: FOUR - Remnants - Discussion

#937 Postby GCANE » Mon Jul 10, 2017 8:22 am

Just my opinon, but judging by its current momentum and the CONUS trough possibly being stationary or pushing a little north, it looks like it has its eye on the Straits of Florida.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... anim=html5
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Re: ATL: FOUR - Remnants - Discussion

#938 Postby RL3AO » Mon Jul 10, 2017 8:24 am

He said the wave off Africa looks grim but to keep eye on TD 4
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Re: ATL: FOUR - Remnants - Discussion

#939 Postby GCANE » Mon Jul 10, 2017 8:28 am

gfsperpendicular wrote:
RL3AO wrote:


Unless I read it wrong, that means 04L has between 70 and 80% chances of development. How is that grim :?:


I think he is referring to the current wave NHC THC is talking about that just came off Africa.

Eventhough Ex TD4 is technically in the defined MDR area.
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Re: ATL: FOUR - Remnants - Discussion

#940 Postby TheStormExpert » Mon Jul 10, 2017 8:31 am

 https://twitter.com/tropicaltidbits/status/884402888893763584


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