ATL: HARVEY - Models

[NDG]

At this point near the border looks to be a good consensus, don't forget that most of the worst wx will be to the north and east of the coc.

[stormreader]

just depends where it comes off the Yucatan, Ridge is breaking, so the north component is there. remember 4-5 days away still

Big key there. It could reorganize and develop a center further north than anticipated, giving it that extra impetus to go that much further north. Sweating it out the last couple of days (still sweating---cause it could take that more westerly course), but I think the US landfall is becoming more likely. And watch for the unexpected. Utlimate direction and intensity, not a done deal by any means.

[Nimbus]

lots of convection but where is it going to close off?
Usually occurs near the northern part of the wave Apex.

[Alyono]

FWIW, and likely not much, new 12Z NAM dissipates the system in the northern Gulf due to very strong southerly shear

[Thetxhurricanemaster]

FWIW, and likely not much, new 12Z NAM dissipates the system in the northern Gulf due to very strong southerly shear

This is very unlikely and the NAM struggles with BOC systems

[Stormcenter]

Do you have graphics for that run? Thanks is advance.

FWIW, and likely not much, new 12Z NAM dissipates the system in the northern Gulf due to very strong southerly shear

[stormlover2013]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... s=0&ypos=0

[Thetxhurricanemaster]

Do you have graphics for that run? Thanks is advance.

FWIW, and likely not much, new 12Z NAM dissipates the system in the northern Gulf due to very strong southerly shear

The NAM doesn't develop it at all it never closes off and the NAM is a terrible model

[Stormcenter]

Not as farfetched as some may think as to that possible track. IMO

FWIW, and likely not much, new 12Z NAM dissipates the system in the northern Gulf due to very strong southerly shear

[Steve]

FWIW, and likely not much, new 12Z NAM dissipates the system in the northern Gulf due to very strong southerly shear

This is very unlikely and the NAM struggles with BOC systems

Agreed. It would be a coup as it's been bringing the circulation north for runs since yesterday. But Harvey's remnants are too far south for the NAM to be useful in my opinion.

[Thetxhurricanemaster]

FWIW, and likely not much, new 12Z NAM dissipates the system in the northern Gulf due to very strong southerly shear

This is very unlikely and the NAM struggles with BOC systems

Agreed. It would be a coup as it's been bringing the circulation north for runs since yesterday. But Harvey's remnants are too far south for the NAM to be useful in my opinion.

Yeah the NAM is terrible below 25N it keeps shifting west yesterday it showed the energy heading for LA which now it shifted to a sheared mess near Galveston

[stormreader]

Now looking at most recent pic. Large area of disorganized t-storms and much further north than the expected coordinates for the "center" or where the center was projected to be right now, off of Belize. This activity will cross the Yucatan, and I think there is an excellent chance that reorganization in the GOM will occur in connection with this more northward activity. Think that may induce a more northward trajectory than many might expect.

[Steve]

Now looking at most recent pic. Large area of disorganized t-storms and much further north than the expected coordinates for the "center" or where the center was projected to be right now, off of Belize. This activity will cross the Yucatan, and I think there is an excellent chance that reorganization in the GOM will occur in connection with this more northward activity. Think that may induce a more northward trajectory than many might expect.

I'd be surprised though not shocked if it came up closer to SE Texas than the mid S TX Coast. It's certainly possible, and any delay or stall along the way could mean a more northerly track later. In any event, some of the models bring this up after landfall into the Hill Country, SE TX and then Piney Woods. So there might be sufficient interruption for interior Texans toward the weekend.

[stormlover2013]

I am going to go on a limb now this will be a TEXAS landfall, now where we won't know till wed!!

[msp]

12z GFS not much changed from 6z GFS, maybe slightly south. Looks like track into area just south of Brownsville

[Alyono]

new GFS a bit weaker. The upper high is displaced to the east. Still near the border

Will be watching the trends today. I would not be surprised if the hurricane chances decrease through the day

[gatorcane]

12z GFS not much changed from 6z GFS, maybe slightly south. Looks like track into area just south of Brownsville

Slight west shift and slightly weaker:

[stormlover2013]

JMA at 72 hours
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=170

[perk]

Now looking at most recent pic. Large area of disorganized t-storms and much further north than the expected coordinates for the "center" or where the center was projected to be right now, off of Belize. This activity will cross the Yucatan, and I think there is an excellent chance that reorganization in the GOM will occur in connection with this more northward activity. Think that may induce a more northward trajectory than many might expect.

I'd be surprised though not shocked if it came up closer to SE Texas than the mid S TX Coast. It's certainly possible, and any delay or stall along the way could mean a more northerly track later. In any event, some of the models bring this up after landfall into the Hill Country, SE TX and then Piney Woods. So there might be sufficient interruption for interior Texans toward the weekend.

I totally agree,but we seem to be in the minority.

[Alyono]

CMC again a little south of La Pesca at 982mb