ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Radar shows that the ECMWF definitely is way too far southwest with its track over Cuba. Has it further south by this point.

[johngaltfla]

listen to caneman...the system is in a very favorable area ot intensify, doesnt mean it will but intensity forecasting is extremely difficult..they are having a tough enough time figuring out the ridge let alone what happens with the core dynamics...everyone on the west coast prepare for a major just like we did on the east coast


good luck to west coast peeps...nbc6 miami just showed a very large tree down in miami..maybe those were 60 mph winds in that feeder band that sent that tree on top of the house

Indeed those bands are hundreds of miles long and can contain meso's will spin up a tornado or waterspout in the tails. That's not doom and gloom its fact.

definitely, we had a feeder band from a gulf storm over 10 years ago that took out power to 250k residents in sofla..it was really a one feeder band event...keep the shutters up and the generators ready in se florida..one coconut is all it takes so dont open the shutters especially later tonight and tomorrow

It's going to be a longer night when the larger bands hit and the onshore winds start pushing water into Biscayne Bay. Good luck to you guys over there as I have the feeling by Sunday 5-6 pm I shall be without power and internet...

[WeatherGuesser]

If you have Google Earth, you can see the size relative to FL. Very little of the state will escape at least some effects.

[GeneratorPower]

According to IR satellite right now there is a fantastic core with fantastic clearly visible eye. It passed north of the NHC forecast point by about 10 mikes and is completely offshore right now. It's going to continue to skirt the Cuban islands but there is little or no chance of a significantly disrupted Irma. The question is how much does it strengthen in the Straits.

Inland yes. In Zone D safe and sound. Shuttered to the max. Worried about my business though. It's a strong commercial building but the bay door is wimpy. We reinforced it greatly but still concerned. I've never dealt with a major like this.
GP, I hope you're inland. Fort Myers is going to get the next beating it looks like. Good luck to ya!

[KWT]

Radar shows that the ECMWF definitely is way too far southwest with its track over Cuba. Has it further south by this point.

yeah it does look to the north of those forecasts. I suspect the eye is literally wobbling along the coast at the moment. Not going to be going hugely inland and if it does carry on this WNW track for much longer then it isn't going to go inland enough for the eye to be totally inland- in other words, probably no serious deterioration of the inner core.

[jlauderdal]

The surge could be intense in Collier and Lee Counties. There are many brand new high dollar neighborhoods south of 41 and just 1 mile from open ocean. Looking pretty stupid to build there at this point.

I often wondered who/why they built those $750K+ homes on the waterfront. They look great, have nice docks, beautiful country clubs, and are in Zone B. This storm is going to destroy our real estate market....

since when did building in a flood prone area stop anyone, they have been doing it along rivers for years...its all about da money folks..the buyers see the docks and sunshine and golf courses especially in naples and the builders gladly accept their money...lets hope they stay safe over there

[GCANE]

[NDG]

Radar shows that the ECMWF definitely is way too far southwest with its track over Cuba. Has it further south by this point.

yeah it does look to the north of those forecasts. I suspect the eye is literally wobbling along the coast at the moment. Not going to be going hugely inland and if it does carry on this WNW track for much longer then it isn't going to go inland enough for the eye to be totally inland- in other words, probably no serious deterioration of the inner core.

I agree, at least for now is following the GFS track instead of the Euro, in the short term.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

looks too be filling in and becoming a bit more compact as the cane racks the shore line.
eye looks too be shrinking on the sat-pic.

[cjrciadt]

Just woke up my friend in Tampa, to get them updated on the their possible impact!

[NDG]

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-41210865#

[HenkL]

URNT12 KNHC 091029
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL112017
A. 09/10:12:30Z
B. 22 deg 32 min N
079 deg 03 min W
C. 700 mb 2546 m
D. 101 kt
E. 060 deg 18 nm
F. 141 deg 108 kt
G. 056 deg 25 nm
H. 937 mb
I. 11 C / 3045 m
J. 16 C / 3046 m
K. NA / NA
L. CLOSED
M. C15
N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF307 2611A IRMA OB 10
MAX FL WIND 112 KT 026 / 18 NM 08:32:30Z
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 240 / 12 KT
;

[GCANE]

Eye on Key West Radar

https://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid ... 1&loop=yes

[Airboy]

Gone be a close call if it goes a bit inland of Cuba or stays just off shore.

[GCANE]

Very strong Tornado Potential just west of Andros Island associated with the strong feeder band.
Watching if this rotates to Miami area.

[wxman57]

Recon is finding that Irma is down to a Cat 3 with 105kt winds. Cuba hit it hard, but it should recover once it moves away from the coast. Could still be a Cat 4 when it hits Florida. The interaction with land will cause the wind field to expand, too. Hurricane force winds over a larger area. Keys residents are all evacuated, I hope. Starting my 12hr shift...

[Kat5]

Recon is finding that Irma is down to a Cat 3 with 105kt winds. Cuba hit it hard, but it should recover once it moves away from the coast. Could still be a Cat 4 when it hits Florida. The interaction with land will cause the wind field to expand, too. Hurricane force winds over a larger area. Keys residents are all evacuated, I hope. Starting my 12hr shift...

Hey WX,

Has the shortwave been on track to steer IRMA north, or are we probably going to see it making a run at the Panhandle? Would appreciate your input!

[jlauderdal]

irma has arrived in south florida...just saw video of trees down in Pine Crest(dade) at an apartment complex blocking the entrance...those people leaving their building

[GCANE]

Eastern eyewall packing a punch.
Recon recorded very heavy rain rate.

[NDG]

Recon is finding that Irma is down to a Cat 3 with 105kt winds. Cuba hit it hard, but it should recover once it moves away from the coast. Could still be a Cat 4 when it hits Florida. The interaction with land will cause the wind field to expand, too. Hurricane force winds over a larger area. Keys residents are all evacuated, I hope. Starting my 12hr shift...

12 hrs shift that' it? I've been on 20 hrs shifts on this site, and for free