ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[GCANE]

[Hurricane Andrew]

FL winds are far lower than the last two days, but the windfield is much larger.

[AutoPenalti]

Definitely weakening, probably a very strong cat 3.

[Weatherhorse]

Here in the villages (ocala) with 3 kids and 3 dogs. Having trouble getting the time to read posts for info. Can someone please update me about what is expected for my area?

Sent you a PM. Following NWS JAX is probably a better idea than trying to get information here. Too much going on all over that state with Irma.

Website:http://www.weather.gov/jax/

Here is the latest:
Hurricane Irma Local Statement Advisory Number 41
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL AL112017
643 AM EDT Sat Sep 9 2017

This product covers West Central and Southwest Florida

**HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WARNINGS EXTENDED NORTHWARD ALONG THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA**

NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
- The Hurricane Watch has been upgraded to a Hurricane Warning
and a Storm Surge Warning have been issued for Coastal Hernando
and Coastal Pasco
- The Hurricane Watch has been upgraded to a Hurricane Warning
for Inland Hernando, Inland Pasco, and Sumter

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
- A Hurricane Warning is in effect for DeSoto, Hardee, Highlands,
Inland Charlotte, Inland Hernando, Inland Hillsborough, Inland
Manatee, Inland Pasco, Inland Sarasota, Polk, and Sumter
- A Storm Surge Watch and Hurricane Watch are in effect for
Coastal Citrus and Coastal Levy
- A Storm Surge Warning and Hurricane Warning are in effect for
Coastal Charlotte, Coastal Hernando, Coastal Hillsborough,
Coastal Lee, Coastal Manatee, Coastal Pasco, Coastal Sarasota,
Inland Lee, and Pinellas
- A Hurricane Watch is in effect for Inland Citrus and Inland Levy

* STORM INFORMATION:
- About 430 miles southeast of Mouth of Tampa Bay FL or about 340
miles southeast of Fort Myers FL
- 22.5N 78.8W
- Storm Intensity 155 mph
- Movement West-northwest or 285 degrees at 12 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

Irma is moving toward the west-northwest near the north coast of Cuba
with a turn toward the northwest expected by late today, and then a
turn toward the north-northwest expected tonight or on Sunday. On the
forecast track, the center of Irma will be near the Florida Keys
Sunday morning, and then approach the southwest coast of Florida
Sunday afternoon.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* WIND:
Protect against life-threatening wind having possible devastating
impacts across West Central and Southwest Florida. Potential impacts
include:
- Structural damage to sturdy buildings, some with complete roof
and wall failures. Complete destruction of mobile homes. Damage
greatly accentuated by large airborne projectiles. Locations
may be uninhabitable for weeks or months.
- Numerous large trees snapped or uprooted along with fences and
roadway signs blown over.
- Many roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban
or heavily wooded places. Many bridges, causeways, and access
routes impassable.
- Widespread power and communications outages.

* SURGE:
Protect against life-threatening surge having possible devastating
impacts from Hernando county southward through Tampa Bay and all of
Southwest Florida. Potential impacts in this area include:
- Widespread deep inundation, with storm surge flooding greatly
accentuated by powerful battering waves. Structural damage to
buildings, with many washing away. Damage greatly compounded
from considerable floating debris. Locations may be
uninhabitable for an extended period.
- Near-shore escape routes and secondary roads washed out or
severely flooded. Flood control systems and barriers may become
stressed.
- Extreme beach erosion. New shoreline cuts possible.
- Massive damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers.
Numerous small craft broken away from moorings with many lifted
onshore and stranded.

Also, protect against life-threatening surge having possible
significant to extensive impacts across coastal portions of Levy and
Citrus counties.


* FLOODING RAIN:
Protect against life-threatening rainfall flooding having possible
extensive impacts across West Central and Southwest Florida. Potential
impacts include:
- Major rainfall flooding may prompt many evacuations and rescues.
- Rivers and tributaries may rapidly overflow their banks in
multiple places. Small streams, creeks, canals, and ditches may
become dangerous rivers. Flood control systems and barriers may
become stressed.
- Flood waters can enter many structures within multiple
communities, some structures becoming uninhabitable or washed
away. Many places where flood waters may cover escape routes.
Streets and parking lots become rivers of moving water with
underpasses submerged. Driving conditions become dangerous.
Many road and bridge closures with some weakened or washed out.


* TORNADOES:
Protect against a dangerous tornado event having possible significant
impacts across West Central and Southwest Florida. Potential impacts
include:
- The occurrence of scattered tornadoes can hinder the execution
of emergency plans during tropical events.
- Several places may experience tornado damage with a few spots
of considerable damage, power loss, and communications failures.
- Locations could realize roofs torn off frame houses, mobile
homes demolished, boxcars overturned, large trees snapped or
uprooted, vehicles tumbled, and small boats tossed about.
Dangerous projectiles can add to the toll.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

* EVACUATIONS:
For those under evacuation orders, leave as soon as practical with a
destination in mind. Gas up your vehicle well ahead of time. Be sure
that you take all essential materials from your emergency supplies kit.
Let others know where you are going and when you intend to arrive.

If evacuating the area, stick to prescribed evacuation routes. Look
for additional traffic information on roadway smart signs and listen to
select radio channels for further travel instructions. Drivers should
not use cell phones while operating vehicles.

For those not under evacuation orders, understand that there are
inherent risks to evacuation (such as traffic congestion, accidents,
and driving in bad weather), so evacuate only if necessary. Help keep
roadways open for those that are under evacuation orders.

If you are exceptionally vulnerable to wind or water hazards from
tropical systems, consider voluntary evacuation, especially if being
officially recommended. Relocate to a predetermined shelter or safe
destination.

If evacuating away from the area or relocating to a nearby shelter,
leave early before weather conditions become hazardous.

Levy County: http://www.levydisaster.com
Citrus County: http://www.sheriffcitrus.org
Sumter County: http://www.sumtercountyfl.gov
Hernando County: http://www.hernandocounty.us
Pasco County: http://www.pascocountyfl.net
Pinellas County: http://www.pinellascounty.org
Hillsborough County: http://www.hillsboroughcounty.org
Polk County: http://www.polk-county.net
Manatee County: http://www.mymanatee.org
Hardee County: http://www.hardeecounty.net
Desoto County: http://www.desotobocc.com
Sarasota County: http://www.scgov.net
Highlands County: http://www.hcbcc.net
Charlotte County: http://www.charlottecountyfl.gov
Lee County: http://www.leegov.com


* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
Now is the time to bring to completion all preparations to protect
life and property in accordance with your emergency plan.

Outside preparations should be wrapped up as soon as possible before
weather conditions completely deteriorate. Any remaining evacuations
and relocations should be expedited before the onset of tropical
storm force wind.

If you are relocating to safe shelter, leave as early as possible. If
heading to a community shelter, become familiar with the shelter
rules before arrival, especially if you have special needs or own a
pet. Take essential items with you from your Emergency Supplies Kit.
Check the latest weather forecast before departing.

Failure to adequately shelter may result in serious injury or loss of
life. Always heed the advice of local officials and comply with any
orders that are issued. Remember, during the storm 9 1 1 Emergency
Services may not be able to immediately respond if conditions are
unsafe. This should be a big factor in your decision making.

Check-in with your emergency points of contact among family, friends,
and workmates. Inform them of your status and well-being. Let them
know how you intend to ride out the storm and when you plan to
check-in again.

Keep cell phones well charged and handy. Also, cell phone chargers
for automobiles can be helpful after the storm. Locate your chargers
and keep them with your cell phone.

In emergencies it is best to remain calm. Stay informed and focused
on the situation at hand. Exercise patience with those you encounter.
Be a Good Samaritan and helpful to others.

If relocating to a nearby shelter or to the home of a family member
or friend, drive with extra caution, especially on secondary roads.
Remember, many bridges and causeways will be closed once higher winds
arrive. Also, if you encounter water covering the road, seek an
alternate route. Always obey official road signs for closures and
detours.

If you are a visitor and still in the area, listen for the name of
the city or town in which you are staying within local news updates.
Be sure you know the name of the county or parish in which it
resides. Pay attention for instructions from local authorities.

Closely monitor NOAA Weather radio or other local news outlets for
official storm information. Be ready to adapt to possible changes to
the forecast.


* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For information on creating an emergency plan see getagameplan.org
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Tampa Bay Ruskin FL around 12 PM EDT, or sooner if
conditions warrant.

$$

[Patrick99]

With the advanced collapse of the eye, I don't understand how she could feasibly intensify back into a 4 or a 5.

But that's why I'm paid exactly nothing for my opinion.

Cuba can't be having a very good time.

Possible, though in no way do I wish that. Unfortunately the Straits are hurricane jet fuel right now...some of the hottest water in the whole basin.

[nascarfan999]

FL winds are far lower than the last two days, but the windfield is much larger.

Based on the flight level from recon, hurricane strength winds looks to be around 100 miles to the north northeast. Likely a bit less at the surface, but a decent way to see the wind field expanding.

[weathaguyry]

Does anyone know when hourly position updates will start from the NHC?

[La Sirena]

NWS Key West ✔ @NWSKeyWest
It's not too late to get off the Keys!!! You still have time, this morning, to get out! Please, the Keys are not safe. #FLkeys #Irma
2:33 AM - Sep 9, 2017

I just looked at my FB group from the Keys....there are definitely quite a few folks in KW who are pretty freaked out and are trying to evacuate now. Here's the kicker....most of them didn't fuel up their cars before KW ran out of gas. It's looking pretty grim at the moment.

Chris Capp had some YouTube videos he's been posting. Most recent is an hour ago.

If people want out and need help, I would direct them to the number below. Hopefully it will not be too late to get them out.

Monroe County News‏ @monroecounty 22h22 hours ago
More
Monroe County Emergency Hotline Number: 1-305-517-2480. #hurricaneirma

Numerous people had already given that info out there. Good that it's posted here. I did receive an alert last night that Monroe County Sheriffs had pulled all their remaining officers out deeming it was too unsafe. That tells me that a lot about the situation.

[KWT]

Amazing, Irma is STILL riding the coast, not sure its going to go much inland if at all at this rate, recon location shows that is the case. Slow weakening still ongoing due to proximity to the coast but once it really starts to clear the coast later today it should start to restrengthen.

[Steve H.]

With the advanced collapse of the eye, I don't understand how she could feasibly intensify back into a 4 or a 5.

But that's why I'm paid exactly nothing for my opinion.

Cuba can't be having a very good time.

Radar shows the eyewall is still closed and the structure is good. I could see it re-intensifying back into a mid-grade 4, before making landfall as a 125mph Cat 3. Just IMO, of course.

I don't mean to be an alarmist, but I believe that Irma will get back to Cat 5 status near landfall. These storms have "muscle memory" in a sense. If you notice in the latest IR that the cloud tops are getting very cold again, and don't follow the little open spot that appears to be the eye, it is actually just the SW portion. The eye is partially clouded over right now on the north side - it should clear out later today. As she moves away from the coast of Cuba, I believe she will go into RI mode.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

[pgoss11]

Appears (or is it just the distance from the site) it's more offshore to the Key West Radar

I think we can say that its off the coast now and entering back into the open waters of the Straits.

It does look like it's offshore now but if it continues westward, it looks like it would go back over Cuba again.

[tgenius]

Is it at all conceivable that the interaction with Cuba slowing her down causes her to not be as west as Euro predicted and thus bringing Irma closer to SE FL?

[KWT]

Possible, though in no way do I wish that. Unfortunately the Straits are hurricane jet fuel right now...some of the hottest water in the whole basin.

Yep providing it keeps that inner core I can't see anything other than strengthening into landfall. the strait is indeed an area of very high heat content and shear to the north of the system will help to just turbo power its outflow.

[Blown Away]

FL winds are far lower than the last two days, but the windfield is much larger.

Does the WNW imply a turn beginning?

[weathaguyry]

It also makes me think that the side over the water is the side that will eventually go over SEFL...

[marionstorm]

I'm very happy to see the pressure rising. Hopefully she continues to weaken a bit before heading my way. Is the Ocala area at a greater or lesser risk than when the storm was forecast to come up the middle of the state? Could it go far enough west so we don't get strong winds?

[KWT]

Does the WNW imply a turn beginning?

Its possible but take a look at the longer range loop and you'll see Irma has literally been bouncing off the coast as its gone along. Note it moved back West briefly when it went over that dip in Cuba over the past 4hrs, and now its jumped back WNW as the coast curves up to the WNW. Amazing dynamics, I've seen it many times in previous hurricanes in the Caribbean, but never quite to that extent!

Of course any decent jump northwards could help to being the target zone back east.

[meriland29]

Yeah, I don't see how she could even become a cat 4 after all this land

[Michele B]

Bounced.

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=meso1-13-200-1-100

Speed it up.

It literally bounced. HOW?!

That's the damnedest thing I've ever seen.

Gonna hit Cuba.... PSYCHE!

I made note of this last night....if you go back and look at the radar clip from when Irma's winding between the islands (after passing over Puerto Rico), you can see her LITERALLY bounce away from each island she ALMOST touches!!

Yeah, I kept it. Here it is:

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... splay.html

[northjaxpro]

Here in the villages (ocala) with 3 kids and 3 dogs. Having trouble getting the time to read posts for info. Can someone please update me about what is expected for my area?

The forecast for The Villages



Sunday

Tropical storm conditions possible, with hurricane conditions also possible. Scattered showers and thunderstorms, then showers and possibly a thunderstorm after 9am. High near 80. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts between three quarters and one inch possible.


Sunday Night

Tropical storm conditions expected, with hurricane conditions possible. Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Low around 72. Chance of precipitation is 90%.


Monday

Hurricane conditions possible. Showers and possibly a thunderstorm, mainly before 3pm, then scattered showers and thunderstorms after 3pm. High near 78. Chance of precipitation is 80%

Tropical storm conditions possible mean winds 39-75 mph
Hurricane conditions possible mean winds 75 mph or greater