ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[MBryant]

If I recall the topography of Cuba, the greatest terrain (and Friction) is on the eastern side of the Island and the Western side is less so. It would be interesting to see a "Friction map" of the Islands and coast line to indicate where disruption is likely or not based SOLELY on the topography.

Prepare for the worst and hope for the best.

[Janie2006]

Even if Irma continues to show Cuba some love, so to speak, it isn't exactly taking a hike over the mountains and it is approaching/in an area of Cuba that is fairly flat.

[GCANE]

Tapping in now into all that high TPW air pushed out and concentrated ahead of the front.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... anim=html5

[rickybobby]

What are the odds of it going more east?

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

Now IRMA looks to back over water lets see how long it takes too wrap tight around the
centre and fire up.

[Weatherboy1]

Here in Jupiter, the shift of most models to the West coast has improved the outlook for us (though my thoughts go out to those on the other side of the state). But one thing does make me wonder: The base of the shortwave/trough seems to be all the way into the central Gulf now. The dark/dry areas on the WV are definitely digging and the west side of Irma looks to be feeling that approaching trough. Could she turn a bit earlier? End up over the spine of FL? Any thoughts?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/wv-animated.gif

[stormreader]

Now IRMA looks to back over water lets see how long it takes too wrap tight around the
centre and fire up.

My impression is that we're going to have a smaller, yet tightly wound system coming off the Cuban coast. From what I have heard about the positive conditions for development in the Straits, the small core could jack up pretty quickly IMO

[thundercam96]

Based on some selective trends that have been showing regarding a weaker hurricane making landfall, I hope this doesn't add to the large complacency factor at hand. An estimated quarter of the states population (5 Million of ~20 million) has evacuated their residence to either another state or nearby locale. In the end, if thing landfalls as a Cat 3, it will have done a lot less damage than the Cat 4/5 they were predicting to hit. It will be great that the damage lessened and lives would be put at a considerably smaller risk throughout the entire state. But, what happens the next time something like this happens? Will the thought of "They always weaken before landfall" or "We evacuated last time and nothing big happened".

[Airboy]

Looks from recon that Irma is about makeing landfall on Cuba now.

[stormreader]

Even if Irma continues to show Cuba some love, so to speak, it isn't exactly taking a hike over the mountains and it is approaching/in an area of Cuba that is fairly flat.

Yeah, flat coastal areas all night long. Its been holding its own strength-wise for several hours now.

[MBryant]

The radar appears to confirm topographic friction in the southeastern quadrant with cloud banding weakening over the mountains and Banding strengthening in the flatter topography in the southwestern quadrant. The central core still looks pretty good though, so we'll just have to keep an eye on it.

[GCANE]

Keeping an eye on the band east of Miami.
Firing off two heavy-duty towers.

[tolakram]

Based on some selective trends that have been showing regarding a weaker hurricane making landfall, I hope this doesn't add to the large complacency factor at hand. An estimated quarter of the states population (5 Million of ~20 million) has evacuated their residence to either another state or nearby locale. In the end, if thing landfalls as a Cat 3, it will have done a lot less damage than the Cat 4/5 they were predicting to hit. It will be great that the damage lessened and lives would be put at a considerably smaller risk throughout the entire state. But, what happens the next time something like this happens? Will the thought of "They always weaken before landfall" or "We evacuated last time and nothing big happened".

Where does one go with that? What does it matter? The forecast was the best possible, the dangers are still real, and if people want to be complacent for the next one and get themselves killed ... so be it. There's not a lot that can really be done. Keep in mind we just came out of a disaster in Houston where people were upset that an evacuation was not done. There is no such thing as the perfect solution.

I think most people know the score, understand the risks, and basically don't make a big deal out of it and so we never hear about it. Houston may have taken a big hit AND helped folks be less complacent about this one.

[Patricia]

Based on some selective trends that have been showing regarding a weaker hurricane making landfall, I hope this doesn't add to the large complacency factor at hand. An estimated quarter of the states population (5 Million of ~20 million) has evacuated their residence to either another state or nearby locale. In the end, if thing landfalls as a Cat 3, it will have done a lot less damage than the Cat 4/5 they were predicting to hit. It will be great that the damage lessened and lives would be put at a considerably smaller risk throughout the entire state. But, what happens the next time something like this happens? Will the thought of "They always weaken before landfall" or "We evacuated last time and nothing big happened".

Unfortunately my sibling's in laws are like this. They've not really ever had a direct hit so they never leave. They are putting their family and their kids at great risk every time a big storm comes near. Since Irma moved west they are telling all of us who worried they didn't evacuate "see no big deal! Its all just hype.".

[MGC]

Once Irma moves away from the coast of Cuba, it will have a lot of warm water to cross before approaching the west coast of Florida. I think restrengthening is highly likely. I'm expecting Irma to weaken to a Cat-3 soon. But should be a solid Cat-4 near Key West tomorrow......MGC

[Weatherboy1]

You can also see the steering influence of the trough getting very close to Irma in the CIMSS winds graphics here. If you scroll back in three hour increments using the tool at the top, you can clearly see the steering winds dip further and further down onto the Gulf

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/dlmmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=dlm6&zoom=&time=

[boca]

I was wondering that too with the digging trough a turn sooner but Irma hasn't slowed down indicating a turn to the NW.

[hilfyer]

Not seeing Irma quite clear of Cuba as some posted...EYW radar shows it straddling the coast and moving along the coast...not out to sea. Sat pix shows a good portion overland and even a good chunk offshore the south coast of Cuba feeding on those warm seas. Forecast track has it coming off the coast at 18z and she looks to be on target for that....

[Steve]

Look at those CAPE values. The atmosphere is primed and there's plenty of juice for tornadic activity. I should think that there will be tornadoes aplenty in those feeder bands.

That's a very important point which I'm really glad we have posters like GCANE and 1900 monitoring and providing the information on. NOAA has recently upped the tornado threat for SE FL. I'm not as well versed in the interplay of a hurricane interacting with a front and an upper trough, but it seems logical that the tornado threat should ride up east of the center once Irma has a more northerly component. It's seems logical that with westerly shear kicking in tomorrow and with FL landfall, that eventually Irma will be weighted north and east after. I'd expect the tornado threat for East Cental and NE FL to increase more than what was predicted yesterday when that vector was offshore and resulting tornado threat was moderate. If anyone disagrees with that premise or if I am wrong with the general assumption, feel free to set me straight on it.

[tolakram]

Not seeing Irma quite clear of Cuba as some posted...EYW radar shows it straddling the coast and moving along the coast...not out to sea. Sat pix shows a good portion overland and even a good chunk offshore the south coast of Cuba feeding on those warm seas. Forecast track has it coming off the coast at 18z and she looks to be on target for that....

2004 and 1 post. Belated welcome to Storm2K. I agree, looks to be on track, still more land interaction ahead.