ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[bordot]

For anyone curious about the effects of Cuba's mountain systems on Irma, check out this topography map of Cuba.



I don't believe she'll be affected much as long as she doesn't go too far SW (unlikely)

[stormreader]

Keeping an eye on the band east of Miami.
Firing off two heavy-duty towers.

Just my average ordinary uninformed opinion, but I don't have a good feeling about this thing coming off the Cuban coast. Structure still really, really good. Small and tightly wound. Latent energy in the storm is very high. No storm can compare with the prolonged Cat 4 and 5 status of this one. That Cuban impact would have taken more out of other storms. Everything is in place for a very quick wind up in the Straits. I don't think 160 mph is out of the question through the keys. IMO

[tolakram]

 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/906520347012460544




Philippe Papin @pppapin
Weakening of #Irma over #Cuba is primarily by loss of ocean #LHF. Even w/ flat land, #WISHE too weak for Cat 4-5 TC. http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ppa ... h_0p25.php …
10:11 AM - Sep 9, 2017 · New York, USA
2 2 Replies 6 6 Retweets 8 8 likes

[tatlopuyo]

I wouldnt be surprised if this will not turn nw and continue moving w/wnw. Im no expert. Just basing it from experience observing supertyphoons here in the wespac. Haiyan is one example.

[tolakram]

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/906521576258097152




Levi Cowan @TropicalTidbits
Quick Saturday morning video update on Hurricane #Irma: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/blog/20 ... h-florida/ …
10:16 AM - Sep 9, 2017

[MBryant]

Is there a chance, albeit a small one, that Irma makes it far enough west to miss the northern steering currents and makes it to the southern steering currents and heads into the Yucatan?

[HenkL]

URNT12 KNHC 091419
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL112017
A. 09/14:02:00Z
B. 22 deg 45 min N
079 deg 35 min W
C. 700 mb 2590 m
D. 99 kt
E. 043 deg 9 nm
F. 120 deg 104 kt
G. 034 deg 17 nm
H. 941 mb
I. 13 C / 3052 m
J. 16 C / 3051 m
K. NA / NA
L. CLOSED
M. C15
N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF307 2611A IRMA OB 22
MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 105 KT 017 / 22 NM 14:09:00Z
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 175 / 7

[Evil Jeremy]

Is there a chance, albeit a small one, that Irma makes it far enough west to miss the northern steering currents and makes it to the southern steering currents and heads into the Yucatan?

Not one computer model presents this as a remote possibility

[ConvergenceZone]

I knew I'd wake up to a Cat 3. I just knew it, in spite of what some people were saying about it not losing intensity. Cuba does this to storms all the time. If it starts moving away from Cuba now, I think it will maintain strength, but if it continues to ride the coastline for most of the day, then we are probably looking at a Cat 2 heading for Florida.

[Mello1]

Is there a chance, albeit a small one, that Irma makes it far enough west to miss the northern steering currents and makes it to the southern steering currents and heads into the Yucatan?

Most folk here have said no already to this.

[thundercam96]

Based on some selective trends that have been showing regarding a weaker hurricane making landfall, I hope this doesn't add to the large complacency factor at hand. An estimated quarter of the states population (5 Million of ~20 million) has evacuated their residence to either another state or nearby locale. In the end, if thing landfalls as a Cat 3, it will have done a lot less damage than the Cat 4/5 they were predicting to hit. It will be great that the damage lessened and lives would be put at a considerably smaller risk throughout the entire state. But, what happens the next time something like this happens? Will the thought of "They always weaken before landfall" or "We evacuated last time and nothing big happened".

Where does one go with that? What does it matter? The forecast was the best possible, the dangers are still real, and if people want to be complacent for the next one and get themselves killed ... so be it. There's not a lot that can really be done. Keep in mind we just came out of a disaster in Houston where people were upset that an evacuation was not done. There is no such thing as the perfect solution.

I think most people know the score, understand the risks, and basically don't make a big deal out of it and so we never hear about it. Houston may have taken a big hit AND helped folks be less complacent about this one.

I understand your point tolakram. I am just disappointed when I look on social media and seeing all of the popup "news" sites speaking of this "Monstrosity Category 5 Super Hurricane" and how its going to destroy Florida/SE US..... from 10 days out. A frightening majority of the general populous take this information like it just came out of the mouth of god. Before you know it, you see friends on Facebook saying that "This storms going to hit Texas" or "There is a 245 MPH storm coming! Lookout!". These were actual quotes from friends I am connected with on social media that are very wise, knowledgeable people who should be able to discern between garbage and facts.

[Jelff]

The link below will display a Google + GIS (Geographical Information System) map that can show you the water height and wind speed at various data collection stations on the coast.

When the map opens it is centered at Florida and the basemap is a black and white satellite image that refreshes every 30 minutes. If the basemap is black it simply means you are looking at the map when it is nighttime in Florida.

Also when the map opens each green dot is a weather sensing station on the coast. If you click any of those stations then you will see a popup that includes a “data” link. If you follow that “data” link then you will see the official web page for that station. That web page displays a graph of water level. As Irma passes you will be able to see any storm surge measured by the gage.

To see a wind speed graph for this station, look above the water level graph and click the link titled “Meteorological Obs.”

In addition to the coastal gage layer (Tide_wind_and_more), other useful GIS data overlay layers include stream gages and rain gages. If the ‘top' layer you have turned on displays gages, then you can click on a gage and then click the link in the popup and that will open the official web page for that gage.

The map can display 20+ GIS data overlays.

Want to make your own custom map link? Sure, you can do that.

The "Map Tips" link in the upper left corner will show you how to turn the other GIS data overlay layers on/off, how to make your own custom map link and more tips for getting the most benefit from the map.

Coastal gages map: https://bit.ly/2xWCeLA

[Steve]

Is there a chance, albeit a small one, that Irma makes it far enough west to miss the northern steering currents and makes it to the southern steering currents and heads into the Yucatan?

It's going going to run out of time. The trough-reinforcing ULL has crossed into Tennessee and Mississippi and is centered just south of Memphis. It's going to be the feature that helps pull Irma northerly either through or adjacent to SW FL. Run the water vapor loop and see if you can't pick it out.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/comp/ceus/wv-animated.gif

[stormreader]

Easy to pick out eye on latest sat image. Reds reappearing in inner circulation.

[Mello1]

I knew I'd wake up to a Cat 3. I just knew it, in spite of what some people were saying about it not losing intensity. Cuba does this to storms all the time. If it starts moving away from Cuba now, I think it will maintain strength, but if it continues to ride the coastline for most of the day, then we are probably looking at a Cat 2 heading for Florida.

I felt the storm would move more westerly before it turns, but in my no-weather expert opinion, the storm's sheer size contributes to its energy that will not see it weakening below a 3 -- especially once it does make the turn north and the eye is back over very warm waters. It will strengthen IMO. I would look at the wind speed and how much time she has to get it together once over the GOM.

[tolakram]

I understand your point tolakram. I am just disappointed when I look on social media and seeing all of the popup "news" sites speaking of this "Monstrosity Category 5 Super Hurricane" and how its going to destroy Florida/SE US..... from 10 days out. A frightening majority of the general populous take this information like it just came out of the mouth of god. Before you know it, you see friends on Facebook saying that "This storms going to hit Texas" or "There is a 245 MPH storm coming! Lookout!". These were actual quotes from friends I am connected with on social media that are very wise, knowledgeable people who should be able to discern between garbage and facts.

But you aren't really surprised are you? Let's move on, not your fault but this will never change. It will either not be as bad as feared, just as bad, or worse. Social media is a playground for people to get attention. I do not think it's a majority of people, but I have no way to prove that stat other than to point to the massive numbers of people who evacuated when told of the danger.

[MBryant]

Is there a chance, albeit a small one, that Irma makes it far enough west to miss the northern steering currents and makes it to the southern steering currents and heads into the Yucatan?

Not one computer model presents this as a remote possibility

I wouldn't expect it to since it would be a statistical anomaly rather than a probability.

THIS IS THEORETICAL ONLY and not likely. It's probably the wrong time to ask the question at all with so many in imminent danger. Prepare as if the worst case is coming for you and hope it is not. Be thankful if it is not.

[Steve]

I knew I'd wake up to a Cat 3. I just knew it, in spite of what some people were saying about it not losing intensity. Cuba does this to storms all the time. If it starts moving away from Cuba now, I think it will maintain strength, but if it continues to ride the coastline for most of the day, then we are probably looking at a Cat 2 heading for Florida.

Don't sleep on conditions progged south of the FL Keys. If Cuba knocks it down to a 2, it could still get back to a 4 and is expected to do so. GFS has been overestimating pressure but takes it back down to the 920s. If that's 15mb too low, 930s is still brutal. You know I'm not knocking your post, but I wouldn't underestimate the likely damage we will all be paying for.

[clambite]

I wouldnt be surprised if this will not turn nw and continue moving w/wnw. Im no expert. Just basing it from experience observing supertyphoons here in the wespac. Haiyan is one example.

I would think counter clockwise vs. clockwise would have the opposite effect.

[hiflyer]

Is there a chance, albeit a small one, that Irma makes it far enough west to miss the northern steering currents and makes it to the southern steering currents and heads into the Yucatan?

Better hope not cause about 20 big empty cruise ships fled florida ports for the Yucatan channel yesterday morning to ride out the storm!!!