thundercam96 wrote:tolakram wrote:thundercam96 wrote:Based on some selective trends that have been showing regarding a weaker hurricane making landfall, I hope this doesn't add to the large complacency factor at hand. An estimated quarter of the states population (5 Million of ~20 million) has evacuated their residence to either another state or nearby locale. In the end, if thing landfalls as a Cat 3, it will have done a lot less damage than the Cat 4/5 they were predicting to hit. It will be great that the damage lessened and lives would be put at a considerably smaller risk throughout the entire state. But, what happens the next time something like this happens? Will the thought of "They always weaken before landfall" or "We evacuated last time and nothing big happened".
Where does one go with that? What does it matter? The forecast was the best possible, the dangers are still real, and if people want to be complacent for the next one and get themselves killed ... so be it. There's not a lot that can really be done. Keep in mind we just came out of a disaster in Houston where people were upset that an evacuation was not done. There is no such thing as the perfect solution.
I think most people know the score, understand the risks, and basically don't make a big deal out of it and so we never hear about it. Houston may have taken a big hit AND helped folks be less complacent about this one.
I understand your point tolakram. I am just disappointed when I look on social media and seeing all of the popup "news" sites speaking of this "Monstrosity Category 5 Super Hurricane" and how its going to destroy Florida/SE US..... from 10 days out. A frightening majority of the general populous take this information like it just came out of the mouth of god. Before you know it, you see friends on Facebook saying that "This storms going to hit Texas" or "There is a 245 MPH storm coming! Lookout!". These were
actual quotes from friends I am connected with on social media that are very wise, knowledgeable people who should be able to discern between garbage and facts.
IMO continuous 24 hr media focus on every single movement and possibility creates hurricane fatigue with hype that feeds fear and/or complacency depending on the individual. When people are afraid they tend to look for anything to make them less so...some will jump into action, follow guidance, immediately run etc.
Some look to their past experiences and try to paint current possibilities with the same brush, despite being told this may be different. Still others look at every change in the forecast as proof that no one really knows anything and decide to just stay put. Despite the litany of folks saying you are an idiot if you don't get out, we all (should) know that depending on their individual location, home structure and ability to improve storm resistance...it may be perfectly okay in many circumstances to shelter in place.
I said all that to say...you cannot answer the question of "what happens the next time" because you cannot change human nature.
Social media is awesome, until it isn't.
