ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[stormreader]

The next 24 hours are going to be very stressful, of course, for the keys and the W Fl coast. Watching this thing probably wind up pretty quickly over that time frame.

[tolakram]

If you watch the loop below the organization increase of Irma over the last 3 hours is impressive.

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=meso1-02-200-1-10

[Nimbus]

Looks like a WNW movement on radar out of Key West now. Convection looks a bit better organized around the center. Should start cranking up again as more of the circulation clears Cuba.....MGC

my weather man say north if look look more north and wnw

Looks like it will pass 23N very near or just before reaching 80W, that was my benchmark.

[Aric Dunn]

Unfortunately, it appears to sliding off the coast now.. though the inner core was pretty disrupted not completely but no deep eyewall exist now.. that will take a littel time to rebuild.

[tolakram]

Closer view

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop.asp?data_folder=goes-16/mesoscale_01_band_02_sector_05&width=1000&height=1000&number_of_images_to_display=40&loop_speed_ms=80

[stormreader]

If you watch the loop below the organization increase of Irma over the last 3 hours is impressive.

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=meso1-02-200-1-10

Yes. That eye, and eyewall structure are very impressive.

[hiflyer]

Broward County Florida...home of Ft Lauderdale just put in a 4pm curfew effective today. Whole county.

[NDG]

Not a good thing that is following the GFS track versus last night's Euro track, it could really start re-strengthening quicker than what the Euro shows.

I'll be posting the wind gusts that the 12z GFS shows for FL.

[wicked_wx_watcher]

THAt's a risk with every storm. And it happens after every storm.

I don't know that there's a way to prevent that. Better to over-prepare than to put people's lives at stake for the sake of "not crying wolf" all the time.

This is why I am generally not a proponent of overevacuation and tend to recommend people stay in safe places closer by. Honesty if I was in a shelter or with family in Fort Lauderdale I would want to go home and spend this storm in my own home(provided it's not in a surge zone)...but if you evacuated to Valdosta you are committed and won't be home for 4 days. It's the risk you take and many folks are fine with that. It's just not for me.

Social media also plays into this, with many of our out of state friends screaming "LEAVE FLORIDA NOW!" on Facebook. As you say.....evacuation isn't *always* the best decision. I was not in an evacuation zone, but had the opportunity to drive out of state...decided not to, in large part because I was worried about how I'd get back.

As expected, there will be a great deal of post-hurricane analysis after Harvey and Irma. In Houston/Harris County, the mayor and county judge have been excoriated for not invoking a mandatory evacuation. Harvey blew up and hit in 4 days. The entire Texas coast was in Harvey's path until the last 24 hours.

When it became evident that Houston would experience a significant flooding event, there was less than 24 hours to evacuate 6.5 million people in metro Houston alone. That doesn't include the additional 400,000 east of Houston severely impacted as well. Most of those evacuating would have been trapped in the floodwaters on the highways had they left and it's anticipated hundreds would have drowned.

It was such a disaster when Houston evacuated for Rita and Ike, evacuation procedures changed. Those closest to the water would be asked to evacuate due to storm surge. For the rest of the populace, Judge Emmett said it best...if you feel you can't stay in your homes with no power and possibly no water for at least 4 days, you need to leave.

[AutoPenalti]

At times like this I really wish GCANE was hyper active on these boards with CAPE and theta-e ridge forecasts.

[nativefloridian]

Broward County Florida...home of Ft Lauderdale just put in a 4pm curfew effective today. Whole county.

Where might I find this information?

[AutoPenalti]

Broward County Florida...home of Ft Lauderdale just put in a 4pm curfew effective today. Whole county.

Where might I find this information?

WSVN
http://wsvn.com/news/local/curfews-anno ... e-to-irma/

[stormhunter7]

G-bye Cuba.... eye moving back into Florida straights and up next is SW Florida, via - Key West. Eyewall held together pretty good and seeing very cold cloud tops around center. Homestead AFB just had gust to 62mph.

[tolakram]

Broward County Florida...home of Ft Lauderdale just put in a 4pm curfew effective today. Whole county.

Where might I find this information?

Here is their twitter feed, might be in the video. I do not see a press release.

https://twitter.com/BrowardCounty

[stormreader]

G-bye Cuba.... eye moving back into Florida straights and up next is SW Florida, via - Key West. Eyewall held together pretty good and seeing very cold cloud tops around center. Homestead AFB just had gust to 62mph.

Geez, that tells you a lot. 62 mph squall quite a distance from the center.

[abajan]

It looks like it is deepening again. That can make it difficult to determine the direction in the short term. Impressive intensification http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?pa ... 3-200-1-10

Rapid Intensification phase?

That loop certainly makes a good case for it! Not good. Not good at all.

[stormreader]

Respectable chance that winds might even be higher in central and N Fl on this track than on the older powerful Cat 4-5 impact forecast at the tip of Fl. That's if we get the kind of intensification that is forecast or even slightly more intensification. Central Fl will be in the NE quadrant of a very powerful storm making landfall somewhere maybe between Ft. Myers and N to Tampa. Could be quite a bit more intense in places like Orlando, or even further up in Gainesville than previously anticipated.

[SouthDadeFish]

I think the potential for rapid intensification over the next 12-24 hours is very possible. Not looking good for the FL Keys right now at all... I think once Irma passes the Keys, increasingly vertical wind shear may keep the storm in check, but by that time, Irma will likely be back to at least a category 4 hurricane. The storm surge along the SW FL coast will be very dangerous! Please evacuate from mandatory evacuation zones before it's too late!

[ronjon]

Well guys the worst cast scenario has indeed unfolded. Have shuttered the house, grabbed valuables, papers, food, clothing and our family is headed out the surge zone of coastal hernando county with boat in tow to a local home of a friend out of the surge zone. I pleaded with my neighbors not to ride this one out but to no avail. I hope to have a house when i get back but honestly know there is a chance it will be heavily damaged. I'm with you sanibel, same situation, just further north. Holding out a sliver of hope she'll be weaker by the time she hits here.

[tolakram]

Well guys the worst cast scenario has indeed unfolded. Have shuttered the house, grabbed valuables, papers, food, clothing and our family is headed out the surge zone of coastal hernando county with boat in tow to a local home of a friend out of the surge zone. I pleaded with my neighbors not to ride this one out but to no avail. I hope to have a house when i get back but honestly know there is a chance it will be heavily damaged. I'm with you sanibel, same situation, just further north. Holding out a sliver of hope she'll be weaker by the time she hits here.

Good luck, stay safe!