ATL: GERT - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Bocadude85]

http://i.imgur.com/FVvoHz5.jpg
12z Bext Track: AL, 99, 2017080812, , BEST, 0, 154N, 502W, 25, 1011, DB

Per the 12z Euro, 99L will cross 20N @57W and gain @8 degrees latitude over next 72 hours.

I wonder how the track would change if 99L doesn't cross 20N until let's say 60 or 62 west?

[TheStormExpert]

The Carolinas have to stay on alert, even the east coast of FL, I would be more confident if the trough was forecasted to swing out to the sea instead the trough axis will hang around the east coast making it too close for comfort.

Since the trough is expected to hang along the EC of the U.S. wouldn't that make a recurve likely?

[NDG]

The Bermuda ridge to its north is strong, so it could keep moving further west before feeling the weakness from the trough along the eastern US tracking closer to the SE US. IMO.

[Alyono]

A sufficient combination of a slower cold front, a faster moving storm, or a weaker trough/cold front. Since it's only seven days away, there is a high likelihood of a strong cold front moving through the Carolinas next week. But, it could be 12 hours slower than modeled and the wave could move a few hundred miles further west than modeled over the next week. If those happen, it could be enough to let the storm get closer to the Outer Banks. On the other hand, the opposite results could keep it further away.

a stronger front could also bring it onshore as it would be orientated more N/S instead of W/E

True. I was thinking more about the timing.

a slower, stronger front would create the greatest risk of a landfall.

So often, people talk about the front/trough needing to be weak to allow for a landfall when a weak front/trough means a more zonal flow, keeping the storm away, instead of drawing it into the coast

[NDG]

The Carolinas have to stay on alert, even the east coast of FL, I would be more confident if the trough was forecasted to swing out to the sea instead the trough axis will hang around the east coast making it too close for comfort.

Since the trough is expected to hang along the EC of the U.S. wouldn't that make a recurve likely?

But the question is how close to the US east coast, the position of the trough axis could make a big difference.

[Alyono]

One caution, 5 days out, there was almost no ensemble support for Matthew having a major impact

[Kingarabian]

One caution, 5 days out, there was almost no ensemble support for Matthew having a major impact

They verified well then if you're talking about a major hurricane making landfall.

[floridasun78]

look models are agreement on front blocking 99l from going close to east coast but like their saying too early to call

[txwatcher91]

One caution, 5 days out, there was almost no ensemble support for Matthew having a major impact

They verified well then.

No they didn’t. Here in NC it was pretty devastating for many people who lost their homes, and cities that were underwater.

[Emmett_Brown]

One thing I have not seen discussed is the explanation of why the Euro shifted W by about 100 mi on the 12z vs the 0z. I wonder why it shifted, perhaps purely due to the initial position? If so, could we see more W shifts because of the steady westward component of movement today? The shift was a sizable one. If shifts continue, even small, they could add up given we are still a week out.

[Blown Away]

There must be some feature that will be significantly slowing the forward progress of 99L very soon because the 12z Euro has 99L crossing @20N/58W in 48 hours... 99L appears to be flying at a decent clip to the WNW and appears to be crossing 53W now...

[NDG]

look models are agreement on front blocking 99l from going close to east coast but like their saying too early to call

Yes, way too early, anything past 96-120 hrs is way too early to call. The Bermuda ridge is strong, any little stubborness for ridge to hang on strong could make the system get closer to the east coast when it starts recurving.

[NDG]

http://i.imgur.com/2pjQMLY.gif

There must be some feature that will be significantly slowing the forward progress of 99L very soon because the 12z Euro has 99L crossing @20N/58W in 48 hours... 99L appears to be flying at a decent clip to the WNW and appears to be crossing 53W now...

The Euro could be just forecasting a stronger vorticity to develop to the north of the surface vorticity being tracked on vis satellite.

[Emmett_Brown]

One caution, 5 days out, there was almost no ensemble support for Matthew having a major impact

They verified well then.

No they didn’t. Here in NC it was pretty devastating for many people who lost their homes, and cities that were underwater.

And Cape Canaveral FL reported 107 mph gusts.

[RL3AO]

One caution, 5 days out, there was almost no ensemble support for Matthew having a major impact

They verified well then.

600 people dead. 47 in the United States. Would you like to try your post again?

[Kingarabian]

One caution, 5 days out, there was almost no ensemble support for Matthew having a major impact

They verified well then.

600 people dead. 47 in the United States. Would you like to try your post again?

I simply replied back to Alyono's post for a major impact as in a major hurricane making landfall. Sheesh. I was here when Matthew developed and 80% of my family members reside in Willmington, NC. I'm very familiar with its aftermath,

[AxaltaRacing24]

They verified well then.

600 people dead. 47 in the United States. Would you like to try your post again?

I simply replied back to Alyono's post for a major impact as in a major hurricane making landfall. Sheesh.

There was no landfall, but there was a "major impact" to those land areas.

[Kingarabian]

600 people dead. 47 in the United States. Would you like to try your post again?

I simply replied back to Alyono's post for a major impact as in a major hurricane making landfall. Sheesh.

There was no landfall, but there was a "major impact" to those land areas.

I can see that, my apologies if my post was insensitive and I should've been clearer in my reply.

[Alyono]

One caution, 5 days out, there was almost no ensemble support for Matthew having a major impact

They verified well then if you're talking about a major hurricane making landfall.

the ensembles said little chance of the storm passing within 125 miles of the coast. Matthew took the extreme western edge of the probability swath.

Not technically a fail, but something that should happen only 5-10% of the time

[AutoPenalti]

Until we get close to the 2-3 day range we should more or less know what will happen.

As of now we have yet to find a center that will consolidate. We have two competeing vorticies which results in models trying to figure out which one will be the dominate one, so far I see a vorticity south of the mass of convection.