ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[SouthFLTropics]

This question is open to everyone, but really to my local S.FLA friends on here. you all know who your are, Boca, JFL South fla storm and so on.
Based on the latest model runs, meaning a blend of them all not just the GFS or the EURO, what is your thinking as to where Irma will end up.

Floyd track...close enough for a good scare on the Peninsula and then up to the Carolinas.

[SFLcane]

This question is open to everyone, but really to my local S.FLA friends on here. you all know who your are, Boca, JFL South fla storm and so on.
Based on the latest model runs, meaning a blend of them all not just the GFS or the EURO, what is your thinking as to where Irma will end up.

Try again on labor day...For now the NHC is heavily leaning on the EURO and its ensembles so much time to go here. For me personally iam impressed this thing is a major hurricane that far east. By the holiday we should have a better idea if IRMA is anyones problem in the US.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Wow RL3AO,
I would have thought you above all with your knowledge would have been a little different, no insult at all, just was not expecting the response you gave.
Thanks for your input.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Thank you for all that are responding,

I know none of us want anything close to what we are seeing hit any where, but as much as we wish we could can't stop mother nature. So hopefully we all learn a bit from each other and all of the model watching we do, everyone stay safe.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Irma Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
1100 PM AST Thu Aug 31 2017

...RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF IRMA ENDS FOR NOW...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.8N 35.6W
ABOUT 775 MI...1250 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
ABOUT 1725 MI...2775 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB...28.56 INCHES

--------------------------------------------------------------


Hurricane Irma Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
1100 PM AST Thu Aug 31 2017

The period of rapid intensification that began in earnest about 24
hours ago appears to have ended, at least for now. Although a ring
of very cold cloud tops continues to surround a small eye, the eye
appears to have filled somewhat during the evening hours. This may
be due to an eyewall replacement cycle that was noted to have begun
earlier today. A lack of recent microwave imagery makes it
difficult to confirm that, however. The initial intensity remains
100 kt based on a blend of subjective and objective Dvorak current
intensity estimates.

Even though the intensification of Irma seems to have stopped for
now, the hurricane is still embedded within a favorable environment.
For the next couple days, internal convective variability,
especially eyewall replacement cycles, may cause the intensity to
fluctuate up or down. Most of the guidance through this period
shows very little change in strength. Beyond 48 hours, Irma will
move over much warmer SSTs, and all of the hurricane models forecast
some strengthening. The NHC forecast remains a little above the
intensity consensus, and is close to the HWRF and HMON models.

The initial motion estimate is 295/10 kt. No significant changes
have been made to the track forecast. While there remains good
agreement among the dynamical models that a ridge building over the
central Atlantic will steer Irma toward the west on Friday, and the
west-southwest through the weekend, there is large spread beyond
72 h. For example, the GFS shows a somewhat weaker Irma and a
weaker ridge, forcing the hurricane to move slower and make a
sharper turn back toward the west-northwest. On the other hand, the
ECMWF and HWRF depict a stronger ridge and a stronger hurricane on a
more southern track. Since my forecast calls for strengthening, the
NHC forecast remains south of the multi-model consensus, but is a
little north of the corrected consensus, HCCA.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/0300Z 17.8N 35.6W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 01/1200Z 18.1N 37.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 02/0000Z 18.3N 39.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 02/1200Z 18.2N 41.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 03/0000Z 17.7N 43.8W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 04/0000Z 16.7N 48.2W 110 KT 125 MPH
96H 05/0000Z 16.3N 52.4W 115 KT 130 MPH
120H 06/0000Z 17.0N 57.0W 120 KT 140 MPH

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

[weathaguyry]

I don't necessarily think that this will make one one landfall at a specific point, but instead it may ride up the coast (Like Donna.)

[AdamFirst]

This question is open to everyone, but really to my local S.FLA friends on here. you all know who your are, Boca, JFL South fla storm and so on.
Based on the latest model runs, meaning a blend of them all not just the GFS or the EURO, what is your thinking as to where Irma will end up.

I'm obviously not wishing a direct impact anywhere - but I think it's going to be a close miss to Florida if it doesn't impact it at all. Analog to Hurricane Floyd for a miss. Obviously that may mean disaster for points north, so it's a no win situation.

Just gotta keep watching it.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Wow,
So there you have it. This does not mean it's a given but the NHC seems to be staying with the Euro in my opinion. If Irma continues as the NHC sees it, they are siding with EURO and some blend of the other models.

[cycloneye]

[Aric Dunn]

The eye and convective patrern has become much better defined in the last 2 hours.. looks like first erc is completing.. still very small.

[Bocadude85]

This question is open to everyone, but really to my local S.FLA friends on here. you all know who your are, Boca, JFL South fla storm and so on.
Based on the latest model runs, meaning a blend of them all not just the GFS or the EURO, what is your thinking as to where Irma will end up.

I'll got on a limb, this is just my opinion and I am by no means an expert. I think everyone has grown so accustomed to hurricanes missing Florida to the east and heading towards the Carolinas that the notion of a landfall here seems almost unrealistic. I think Irma will break that false sense of security. I think that there is a very real chance S.Fla sees a landfalling major hurricane next weekend. The 1947 hurricane, hurricane Donna, the 1928 Okeechobee hurricane are all decent analogs I believe.

[weathaguyry]

I just wanted to take a second to thank all of the pro mets on Storm 2k for constantly answering all of our questions and giving us constant updates on their opinions on the storms. It is nice that we are all like a big family on Storm 2k, and that we look out for each other (Tropical/Severe Weather Check-in) May everyone stay safe with Irma and whatever else this hurricane season has to throw at us

[txwatcher91]

The eye and convective patrern has become much better defined in the last 2 hours.. looks like first erc is completing.. still very small.

I took a look through all the models, it seems like they don’t really start growing the size much until Sunday and it explodes Monday. I assume that will be the 2nd EWRC and after it finishes is when it’ll grow really large.

[Steve]

Past the NE islands, I think the biggest threat is to the Bahamian Kingdom. After that, South Florida. Seems like more of an Atlantic threat over a Gulf threat, but I'm only about 65/35 on that with the expectation that I'll swing more east coast than gulf coast over time.

[JPmia]

This question is open to everyone, but really to my local S.FLA friends on here. you all know who your are, Boca, JFL South fla storm and so on.
Based on the latest model runs, meaning a blend of them all not just the GFS or the EURO, what is your thinking as to where Irma will end up.

The statistics favor a recurve or a close call to the East coast, but it's still too far out there to know yet. I can't tell you how many times over the years the models point these majors right to FL only to see them go somewhere else. We've been here before. Also, I just don't have much trust in the GFS anymore since the upgrade. There's something not right about it.

[sunnyday]

If Irma does head toward S Fl, I wonder if more people will evacuate after the devastation left in Texas by Harvey...:

[sma10]

This question is open to everyone, but really to my local S.FLA friends on here. you all know who your are, Boca, JFL South fla storm and so on.
Based on the latest model runs, meaning a blend of them all not just the GFS or the EURO, what is your thinking as to where Irma will end up.

I'll got on a limb, this is just my opinion and I am by no means an expert. I think everyone has grown so accustomed to hurricanes missing Florida to the east and heading towards the Carolinas that the notion of a landfall here seems almost unrealistic. I think Irma will break that false sense of security. I think that there is a very real chance S.Fla sees a landfalling major hurricane next weekend. The 1947 hurricane, hurricane Donna, the 1928 Okeechobee hurricane are all decent analogs I believe.

The most recent Euro run says, sure this is possible because of the cutoff low/strong Atlantic ridge combo. GFS says no. This is where we currently are.

[floridasun78]

Wow,
So there you have it. This does not mean it's a given but the NHC seems to be staying with the Euro in my opinion. If Irma continues as the NHC sees it, they are siding with EURO and some blend of the other models.

EURO still king gfs little kid in block no want play with

[Miami Storm Tracker]

God you would hope so, no one can feel or explain what those people are going through except those who went through Katrina.

[AdamFirst]

If Irma does head toward S Fl, I wonder if more people will evacuate after the devastation left in Texas by Harvey...:

That's an unknown. It's been 12 years since Wilma (the last major through South Florida) which brought three weeks of misery to the Palm Beaches & Broward. SFL got lucky with Matthew, with the hurricane damage focused on central and northern Florida as it skirted the coastline.

If these astronomically high intensity forecasts verify, this would be another Andrew situation. It's been 25 years since he demolished South Dade, and while a lot of older South Floridians remember, a lot of other South Floridians don't.

Evacuating would be the ideal choice, but as we've seen with Harvey and Katrina, some people refuse or are simply unable to.

I genuinely fear a track like the 1928 Okeechobee hurricane - the earthen dykes and levees that hold in Lake O have been under major scrutiny over the past decade, with constant reminders from the Army Corps of Engineers that they're likely to fail from a direct hurricane impact. That puts the threat of completely inundating places like Okeechobee city, South Bay and Pahokee underwater - three largely poor farming/migrant communities