ATL: MARIA - Models

[Alyono]

HWRF a total joke. It has Maria MISSING Dominica

[gatorcane]

Jose is looking real bad tonight. We will see if models adjust Maria track accordingly.

[Ian2401]

Jose is looking real bad tonight. We will see if models adjust Maria track accordingly.

Looks like its on life support. Would this be considered Extra/Post-Tropical yet? Sure looks like it.

[Aric Dunn]

HWRF has done Great with the intensity.

[smithtim]

IMHO the 0z runs overnight will be crucial... assuming they have initial values plugged in as after this crazy RI that just happened (I can't recall anything like it, can anyone?) as gotta think almost double strength from yesterday...

Prayers for the people of Dominica!!!

[Ken711]

Jose is looking real bad tonight. We will see if models adjust Maria track accordingly.

They'll likely shift west with the ridge less affected by Jose.

[CFLHurricane]

Jose is looking real bad tonight. We will see if models adjust Maria track accordingly.

They'll likely shift west with the ridge less affected by Jose.

Probably followed by further shifts W due to Maria latching onto PR and Hispaniola.

[floridasun78]

look site go earlier and lastest you see sift more to west most models look jose gaving high chance build west http://hurricanecity.com/models/models. ... atestrun=1

[Ken711]

Jose is looking real bad tonight. We will see if models adjust Maria track accordingly.

They'll likely shift west with the ridge less affected by Jose.

Probably followed by further shifts W due to Maria latching onto PR and Hispaniola.

Maria may track just north of Hispaniola, don't think it will have much affect.

[jlauderdal]

They'll likely shift west with the ridge less affected by Jose.

Probably followed by further shifts W due to Maria latching onto PR and Hispaniola.

Maria may track just north of Hispaniola, don't think it will have much affect.

Possible inflow issues and pr will knock.it down..i say it loses two categories from pr to the bahamas

[Blinhart]

Probably followed by further shifts W due to Maria latching onto PR and Hispaniola.

Maria may track just north of Hispaniola, don't think it will have much affect.

Possible inflow issues and pr will knock.it down..i say it loses two categories from pr to the bahamas

I really think it depends on the size she is when she it hits PR or Hispaniola. I think Hispaniola would decapitate her more than PR and it would actually be better of the 2 options. PR has already been ravaged by Irma and is still trying to clean up, they don't need to have a Cat 5 with winds over 160 MPH coming to them.

[floridasun78]

new run i can see here got more southern bahamas last models run here site i am looking over and over make sure eye not playing games http://hurricanecity.com/models/models. ... run=latest

[jlauderdal]

Maria may track just north of Hispaniola, don't think it will have much affect.

Possible inflow issues and pr will knock.it down..i say it loses two categories from pr to the bahamas

I really think it depends on the size she is when she it hits PR or Hispaniola. I think Hispaniola would decapitate her more than PR and it would actually be better of the 2 options. PR has already been ravaged by Irma and is still trying to clean up, they don't need to have a Cat 5 with winds over 160 MPH coming to them.

Its approaching from.the se...pr is either taking a direct hit or on the dirty side

[fci]

Looks like even less ridging on the 18Z GFS at 72 hours than 12Z. It is hard to discount the GFS and ECMWF as far as how they are intensifying Jose no matter what Jose might look like right now.

stop the modelology, please. If a solution is not physical, it is OK to discount it

With all due respect, how do people just stop looking at the models?
NHC and Pro Mets use them so they ARE of use and combined with Climatology seem to be the most logical tools.
Maybe I don't understand since you are a scientist and I'm not, but how is there a "physical solution" in the future.
I'm no scientist so maybe I misunderstood what you are implying in your post.

[aperson]

Looks like even less ridging on the 18Z GFS at 72 hours than 12Z. It is hard to discount the GFS and ECMWF as far as how they are intensifying Jose no matter what Jose might look like right now.

stop the modelology, please. If a solution is not physical, it is OK to discount it

With all due respect, how do people just stop looking at the models?
NHC and Pro Mets use them so they ARE of use and combined with Climatology seem to be the most logical tools.
Maybe I don't understand since you are a scientist and I'm not, but how is there a "physical solution" in the future.
I'm no scientist so maybe I misunderstood what you are implying in your post.

My two cents as a hobbyist:

All models are wrong but some models are useful. When models begin making fundamentally different decisions than what we expect, we need to see if the scenario is possible. Like in Harvey's case, the off-the-rails precipitation totals were completely possible, so we didn't discount them. However in this case, I really don't see any way this system can remain tropical and strengthen as it increases latitude with the current atmospheric setup, shear, and SSTs.

When we have decided that the surprise a model threw at us is likely erroneous, it's time to admit that variance is higher than we had hoped for and we need to start figuring out what the alternative without relying on the models would look like. If the models do verify and surprise us, then we have work to do post hoc to understand what they were seeing. If the models don't verify, then we have work to do on the models themselves.

[jlauderdal]

Looks like even less ridging on the 18Z GFS at 72 hours than 12Z. It is hard to discount the GFS and ECMWF as far as how they are intensifying Jose no matter what Jose might look like right now.

stop the modelology, please. If a solution is not physical, it is OK to discount it

With all due respect, how do people just stop looking at the models?
NHC and Pro Mets use them so they ARE of use and combined with Climatology seem to be the most logical tools.
Maybe I don't understand since you are a scientist and I'm not, but how is there a "physical solution" in the future.
I'm no scientist so maybe I misunderstood what you are implying in your post.

The modeling can show a solution that makes no sense so it gets discounted as highly unlikely or impossible...it happens,...it will.settle down in the next day or so as joses fate in the real.world is decided

[MetroMike]

I thought dissipating TC still left some weakness in their wake?

[Voltron]

I thought dissipating TC still left some weakness in their wake?

Yes but not enough to have a measureable difference. If it errodes quick enough. Like a flower losing pedals.

[Aric Dunn]

I thought dissipating TC still left some weakness in their wake?

Yes but not enough to have a measureable difference. If it errodes quick enough. Like a flower losing pedals.

In this case becasue of the cold water convection technically would be zero just a low cloud swirl which would have little to no effect on the mid to upper-level ridging that would build back in. IT IS STILL WAY TO EARLY to know. just have to wait and watch for 2 or 3 days..

[floridasun78]

I thought dissipating TC still left some weakness in their wake?

Yes but not enough to have a measureable difference. If it errodes quick enough. Like a flower losing pedals.

In this case becasue of the cold water convection technically would be zero just a low cloud swirl which would have little to no effect on the mid to upper-level ridging that would build back in. IT IS STILL WAY TO EARLY to know. just have to wait and watch for 2 or 3 days..

i seen few move more to west near bahamas last one i seen