ATL: IRMA - Models

[Evil Jeremy]

UKM Insisted this would hit Cuba and come in west and once again many of us (including me) figured it was wrong. Let's see just how close to the UKM track it gets. The 12z numbers should be arriving soon, here is last nights track.

https://i.imgur.com/yHIjNpj.png

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 08.09.2017 21.7N 74.6W INTENSE
00UTC 09.09.2017 22.2N 77.1W INTENSE WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 09.09.2017 22.4N 78.8W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 10.09.2017 22.9N 80.2W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 10.09.2017 24.1N 81.1W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
00UTC 11.09.2017 25.8N 81.6W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 11.09.2017 28.3N 82.0W INTENSE WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 12.09.2017 31.6N 82.9W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 12.09.2017 34.2N 84.8W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 13.09.2017 35.4N 87.7W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 13.09.2017 35.0N 88.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 14.09.2017 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

Almost exactly the same as 11am NHC track.

[NDG]

would keep the core away from metro areas of SFL..

So Naples and Ft Myers don't count? Please stop it.

[tolakram]

12z Euro shows 140 mph wind gusts over Marco Island and Naples.
102 mph wind gusts over Miami
120 mph wind gusts to Ft Myers
100 mph wind gust to Sarasota & St Pete area
110 mph wind gusts to Kissimmee
100-110 mph wind gusts to Orlando area
100 mph wind gusts to the entire east-central coast of FL
100-110 mph wind gusts to NE FL coast

Indeed

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/814-w-261-n/gusts-3h-mph/20170910-2100z.html

I have been unable to navigate that site and find those maps. If Jack is around, we need some improvements or a how to guide.

[caneman]

This Euro is going to freak the NHC forecasters out. If it rides up southwest coast to Tampa, the surge will be incredible and people have not evacuated and are not expecting this at all.

Tampa is under a hurricane and storm surge watch. Tampa has issued mandatory evacuations. Please don't spread false info.

While wearing are under a mandatory zone A evacuation order I can tell you majority of people I've spoken to have not evacuated and are not planning on.

This is true. Many people from east coast and Orlando came here

[tolakram]

would keep the core away from metro areas of SFL..

So Naples and Ft Myers don't count? Please stop it.

How about we all stop looking for things to get angry about please.

[Evil Jeremy]

Wish the Euro ensembles would get their act together... Still across the peninsula

https://i.imgur.com/eLlhrJR.png

I think that's yesterday's 12z run (?)

[Jevo]

Wish the Euro ensembles would get their act together... Still across the peninsula

https://i.imgur.com/eLlhrJR.png

I think that's yesterday's 12z run (?)

You're darn right it is... disregard

Mark please delete that

[northjaxpro]

This is worse news if the 12Z EURO run verifies because IRMA would have a bit more time to feed off the bath waters of the extreme SE GOM. before landfall. Uggh..

Also, the EURO is hinting at slightly east of due north motion after landfall over the peninsula .

[Tireman4]

Folks, make sure to breathe. There will be a lot of excitable moments coming your way as this unfolds. Remember, be ready, stay vigilant and act accordingly as to your plan.

[jdjaguar]

This is worse news if the 12Z EURO run verifies because IRMA would have a bit more time to feed off the bath waters of the extreme SE GOM. before landfall. Uggh..

Also, the EURO is hinting at slightly east of due north motion after landfall over the peninsula .

Agree.

[adam0983]

Are these west shifts temporarily like Hurricane Matthew and went east at the end.

[Maineman]

12z Euro shows 140 mph wind gusts over Marco Island and Naples.
102 mph wind gusts over Miami
120 mph wind gusts to Ft Myers
100 mph wind gust to Sarasota & St Pete area
110 mph wind gusts to Kissimmee
100-110 mph wind gusts to Orlando area
100 mph wind gusts to the entire east-central coast of FL
100-110 mph wind gusts to NE FL coast

Indeed

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/814-w-261-n/gusts-3h-mph/20170910-2100z.html

I have been unable to navigate that site and find those maps. If Jack is around, we need some improvements or a how to guide.

We Swiss country bumpkins are too nerdy maybe - so

Step 1

Choose model in the forecast menu - We do Euro and land here

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro

Step 2

You decide if you want to see predefined maps (countries, states, counties, top menu) or custom map what we choose which brings us to

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/gr ... 2100z.html

Step 3

Zooming in=click on the map. Choose parameter. Keep clicking until you are really close. Or use (-) button to zoom out. Click into edges to move the map.

Works exactly the same for satellite images.

Got it?

[tolakram]

UKM Plot

[Raebie]

UKM Plot

Didn't their last run take this much farther south over Cuba? This now seems to keep it just offshore.

[tailgater]

Can someone explain why Irma would not slow down with this set up?

[La Sirena]

Key West will not survive that kind of direct hit... its too low of a land mass/island.

This is what I was wondering...that if those models over the keys are accurate, would this storm have the ability to literally wipe out the land mass of the Keys...not just the buildings.

Most of those Keys are coral rock or limestone I believe....but there wouldn't be much left. The 7 mile bridge, Bahia Honda, and the last of Flagler's railroad are just north of there.

Sold our house in Big Pine Key in June. I'm glad to be out but this model run was my worst nightmare. Wow.

[Jevo]

Euro is now the West outlier by a smidge against the latest round of fresh 12z pasta

[BucMan2]

What about the wins and Tampa Bay I couldn't find that

[tolakram]

Indeed

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/814-w-261-n/gusts-3h-mph/20170910-2100z.html

I have been unable to navigate that site and find those maps. If Jack is around, we need some improvements or a how to guide.

We Swiss country bumpkins are too nerdy maybe - so

Step 1

Choose model in the forecast menu - We do Euro and land here

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro

Step 2

You decide if you want to see predefined maps (countries, states, counties, top menu) or custom map what we choose which brings us to

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/gr ... 2100z.html

Step 3

Zooming in=click on the map. Choose parameter. Keep clicking until you are really close. Or use (-) button to zoom out. Click into edges to move the map.

Works exactly the same for satellite images.

Got it?

All but moving map by clicking into edges.

I'm here: https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/96 ... 1800z.html

I switch to CONUS HD, which I think i still the euro?

https://weather.us/model-charts/conus-h ... 1800z.html

Now I want to move up.

[Maineman]

What about the wins and Tampa Bay I couldn't find that

Where? What?