ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Miami Storm Tracker]

If you have the matrials use a 2x4 or long piece of wood under the door supports. Measure the distance out and secure a block of wood to the floor to hold it in place.

[NDG]

So this is what the 12z GFS forecasts approximately on wind gusts for Florida tomorrow:

Keys, 155 mph
Homestead 102 mph
Miami, 96-100 mph
Ft Lauderdale, 90 mph
West Palm Beach, 90 mph
Naples, 130 mph
Marco Island, 140 mph
Ft Myers, 125 mph
Sarasota, 100 mph
Tampa/St Pete, 90 mph (surprisingly low)
Orlando, 105 mph (strong right quadrant)
Daytona, 90+ mph
Ocala, 100 mph
Gainesville, 84 mph
Jacksonville, 90-100 mph (highest along the beach)

Some of these wind gusts might be a bit conservative if it really restrengthens before tomorrow noon. IMO.

[tolakram]

[NDG]

Sheer is brutal just to its north...she doesn't have long to do her thing. This is why she won't trek towards the northern gulf coast...and if she did there wouldn't be much left.

40-50 knots right at Tampa. But by then she will have already done her damage.

Part of that shear over Tampa is its own outflow which is clockwise going against surface winds which go counterclockwise thus why the windshear map show shear so high in that area.

[Full8s]

Well guys the worst cast scenario has indeed unfolded. Have shuttered the house, grabbed valuables, papers, food, clothing and our family is headed out the surge zone of coastal hernando county with boat in tow to a local home of a friend out of the surge zone. I pleaded with my neighbors not to ride this one out but to no avail. I hope to have a house when i get back but honestly know there is a chance it will be heavily damaged. I'm with you sanibel, same situation, just further north. Holding out a sliver of hope she'll be weaker by the time she hits here.

Good Luck!
I'm just below you in Hudson... we're gonna ride it out because we're about 12 miles inland and in a fairly new house (11 years), everything's clean up and put away, but we don't have shutters or plywood, so that's starting to become a bit unnerving. Already had gusts over 32 mph from outer, outer, outer disturbance/bands (?).

Your best bet to survive if the windows blow is to shut all doors to exterior rooms (meaning rooms outside the main interior of the house. Then keep yourself away from as many outside walls as possible. If you can go to an interior room (walk-in closet, or bathroom with no outside windows, bring mattresses to cover yourself from flying debris if windows blow in. Kids in bike helmets, etc. (make it a game for them!)

Good luck

Thanks. We've got 2 pantries and a bathroom downstairs, all interior with no windows, so the 5 of us will be hunkered down once things get sketchy. Unfortunately. my wife's a "Team A" at the hospital so she won't be with us

[AdamFirst]

Unsure if the rain moving over Port Saint Lucie is Irma-related but it's blowing hard out there. Pounding on the roof.

[stormreader]

So this is what the 12z GFS forecasts approximately on wind gusts for Florida tomorrow:

Keys, 155 mph
Homestead 102 mph
Miami, 96-100 mph
Ft Lauderdale, 90 mph
West Palm Beach, 90 mph
Naples, 130 mph
Marco Island, 140 mph
Ft Myers, 125 mph
Sarasota, 100 mph
Tampa/St Pete, 90 mph (surprisingly low)
Orlando, 105 mph (strong right quadrant)
Daytona, 90+ mph
Ocala, 100 mph
Gainesville, 84 mph
Jacksonville, 90-100 mph (highest along the beach)

Some of these wind gusts might be a bit conservative if it really restrengthens before tomorrow noon. IMO.

You correctly added those parenthesis. Commenting on the lower Tampa forecast and the high-end Orlando forecast, with the difference being NW and NE quadrant.

[Raebie]

Unsure if the rain moving over Port Saint Lucie is Irma-related but it's blowing hard out there. Pounding on the roof.

I think at this point, it's safe to assume everything is Irma-related. Stay safe!

[stormreader]

With that structure, you would expect some intensification in the next 6 hours, then possible explosive deepening in the 18 hours or so after that.

[tgenius]

So this is what the 12z GFS forecasts approximately on wind gusts for Florida tomorrow:

Keys, 155 mph
Homestead 102 mph
Miami, 96-100 mph
Ft Lauderdale, 90 mph
West Palm Beach, 90 mph
Naples, 130 mph
Marco Island, 140 mph
Ft Myers, 125 mph
Sarasota, 100 mph
Tampa/St Pete, 90 mph (surprisingly low)
Orlando, 105 mph (strong right quadrant)
Daytona, 90+ mph
Ocala, 100 mph
Gainesville, 84 mph
Jacksonville, 90-100 mph (highest along the beach)

Some of these wind gusts might be a bit conservative if it really restrengthens before tomorrow noon. IMO.

You correctly added those parenthesis. Commenting on the lower Tampa forecast and the high-end Orlando forecast, with the difference being NW and NE quadrant.

Are those numbers legit? That in Miami we are still gonna get 96-100 mph wind gusts? That has to be overly optimistic in my opinion UNLESS she shifts tracks, i.e. goes north more than is forecasted.

[Blown Away]

So this is what the 12z GFS forecasts approximately on wind gusts for Florida tomorrow:

Keys, 155 mph
Homestead 102 mph
Miami, 96-100 mph
Ft Lauderdale, 90 mph
West Palm Beach, 90 mph
Naples, 130 mph
Marco Island, 140 mph
Ft Myers, 125 mph
Sarasota, 100 mph
Tampa/St Pete, 90 mph (surprisingly low)
Orlando, 105 mph (strong right quadrant)
Daytona, 90+ mph
Ocala, 100 mph
Gainesville, 84 mph
Jacksonville, 90-100 mph (highest along the beach)

Some of these wind gusts might be a bit conservative if it really restrengthens before tomorrow noon. IMO.

Great info, can you post the same for Euro? Much appreciated..

[PTPatrick]

Are the larger surges being discussed for Tampa bay specifically, realistic with a landfall closer to Naples or Fort Meyers or are they sort of worst case scenario surges in the event it passes more west over hillbororugh county...am not super familiar with the area. Just have trouble believing hey would verify if it went south and passes east side of the bay...but I don't know

[tolakram]

IR LOOP

https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-abi?satellite=GOESEastconusband14&lat=24&lon=-80&width=1200&height=800&zoom=1&type=Animation&numframes=30&quality=90&palette=ir2.pal

COD IR
http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=meso1-13-96-1-10

[Raebie]

With that structure, you would expect some intensification in the next 6 hours, then possible explosive deepening in the 18 hours or so after that.

Yep. I think reports of her early demise were a tich off base.

[norva]

With that structure, you would expect some intensification in the next 6 hours, then possible explosive deepening in the 18 hours or so after that.

Yep. I think reports of her early demise were a tich off base.

Yeah, this ain't going to be a 2 like some people were saying last night. 4/5 still on track.

[stormreader]

So this is what the 12z GFS forecasts approximately on wind gusts for Florida tomorrow:

Keys, 155 mph
Homestead 102 mph
Miami, 96-100 mph
Ft Lauderdale, 90 mph
West Palm Beach, 90 mph
Naples, 130 mph
Marco Island, 140 mph
Ft Myers, 125 mph
Sarasota, 100 mph
Tampa/St Pete, 90 mph (surprisingly low)
Orlando, 105 mph (strong right quadrant)
Daytona, 90+ mph
Ocala, 100 mph
Gainesville, 84 mph
Jacksonville, 90-100 mph (highest along the beach)

Some of these wind gusts might be a bit conservative if it really restrengthens before tomorrow noon. IMO.

You correctly added those parenthesis. Commenting on the lower Tampa forecast and the high-end Orlando forecast, with the difference being NW and NE quadrant.

Are those numbers legit? That in Miami we are still gonna get 96-100 mph wind gusts? That has to be overly optimistic in my opinion UNLESS she shifts tracks, i.e. goes north more than is forecasted.

Will be on the right side of a storm moving N through the keys. Will be getting winds coming E-W off the Atlantic. Already getting pretty intense squalls near the SE Fl coast.

[poof121]

TWC just mentioned a 75 mph gust at the airport in Miami already.

[Aric Dunn]

Ok mental break is over.. what's shaken bacon's ?

[NDG]

So this is what the 12z GFS forecasts approximately on wind gusts for Florida tomorrow:

Keys, 155 mph
Homestead 102 mph
Miami, 96-100 mph
Ft Lauderdale, 90 mph
West Palm Beach, 90 mph
Naples, 130 mph
Marco Island, 140 mph
Ft Myers, 125 mph
Sarasota, 100 mph
Tampa/St Pete, 90 mph (surprisingly low)
Orlando, 105 mph (strong right quadrant)
Daytona, 90+ mph
Ocala, 100 mph
Gainesville, 84 mph
Jacksonville, 90-100 mph (highest along the beach)

Some of these wind gusts might be a bit conservative if it really restrengthens before tomorrow noon. IMO.

You correctly added those parenthesis. Commenting on the lower Tampa forecast and the high-end Orlando forecast, with the difference being NW and NE quadrant.

Are those numbers legit? That in Miami we are still gonna get 96-100 mph wind gusts? That has to be overly optimistic in my opinion UNLESS she shifts tracks, i.e. goes north more than is forecasted.

Is what the GFS shows through weather.us site, I have no idea if it would be correct, I guess we shall see if it verifies or not.

[AJC3]

Anybody got any ideas about securing our garage doors?

I was able to put my car in the garage with Charley, and set a sheet of plywood flush against the door with the car used as a brace, but now garage's loaded with stuff from Husband's business! Wanna make sure it doesn't blow open and leave my house vulnerable to the storm.

A google search only brings me to commercial products people want to sell you. Well, I think it's a little late to find them today!

Anybody got any ideas?

tia

You can always parallel park a vehicle sideways in front of it. At least it would act as something of a wind break...