ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[AdamFirst]

My stepsister already lost power at her place on the east side of PSL. Still have power here.

[Michele B]

Four quick power surges over the last half hour at home. Doesn't bode well this far out.

so did we (far eastern Manatee County), and I'm trying to finish laundry and cook up a bunch of freezer stuff!

[floridasun78]

TWC just mentioned a 75 mph gust at the airport in Miami already.

wow i feel it i live by airport

[SouthDadeFish]

on radar it looks like its trying to rebuild its core and a eyewall .. but it has ways to go before its ready to RI.

It already has a core and eyewall. In fact, I see a concentric eyewall structure from the Key West radar.

What do you think of the movement? Still WNW or do you think it's beginning to turn as some suggested?

Looks like WNW becoming more NW recently. If there truly is a concentric eyewall, the inner eyewall will likely rotate cyclonically within the inner eyewall, which will result in some erratic motion at times.

[Dave C]

on radar it looks like its trying to rebuild its core and a eyewall .. but it has ways to go before its ready to RI.

It already has a core and eyewall. In fact, I see a concentric eyewall structure from the Key West radar.

Yea. long range radar from Key West shows the double structure nicely. The outer one seems pretty close to the inner, should choke it pretty quickly you think?

[craptacular]

NOAA 2 and NOAA 9 both just recently took off from Lakeland. I only see NOAA 2 on the Plan of the Day, and it's heading south towards Irma. NOAA 9 isn't on the PotD, but is labeled for Irma and it is heading east.

[Aric Dunn]

on radar it looks like its trying to rebuild its core and a eyewall .. but it has ways to go before its ready to RI.

It already has a core and eyewall. In fact, I see a concentric eyewall structure from the Key West radar.

I wouldn't call the weak convection earlier a core it barely had 30 to 40 DBZ returns. since then there is ( like a said an eyewall forming ) deeper convection and yes I agree on the concentric feature. though it is already tight around the "inner" weak eyewall. I would imagine if convection built in that concentric fearture that the inner feature would just die off right away.

[NDG]

So this is what the 12z GFS forecasts approximately on wind gusts for Florida tomorrow:

Keys, 155 mph
Homestead 102 mph
Miami, 96-100 mph
Ft Lauderdale, 90 mph
West Palm Beach, 90 mph
Naples, 130 mph
Marco Island, 140 mph
Ft Myers, 125 mph
Sarasota, 100 mph
Tampa/St Pete, 90 mph (surprisingly low)
Orlando, 105 mph (strong right quadrant)
Daytona, 90+ mph
Ocala, 100 mph
Gainesville, 84 mph
Jacksonville, 90-100 mph (highest along the beach)

Some of these wind gusts might be a bit conservative if it really restrengthens before tomorrow noon. IMO.

NWS has Hudson, Fl (about 25 miles north of Tampa) gusting to 130 on 9/11 at 0400

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?w0=t&w1=td&w2=hi&w3=sfcwind&w3u=1&w4=sky&w5=pop&w6=rh&w7=rain&w8=thunder&w10u=0&w12u=1&w13u=1&AheadHour=1&Submit=Submit&FcstType=digital&textField1=28.3577&textField2=-82.6995&site=all&unit=0&dd=&bw=

Yes that is probably more likely, like I said those wind gusts forecasts by the GFS might be too conservative in some areas, but hopefully not

[pcolaman]

It already has a core and eyewall. In fact, I see a concentric eyewall structure from the Key West radar.

What do you think of the movement? Still WNW or do you think it's beginning to turn as some suggested?

Looks like WNW becoming more NW recently. If there truly is a concentric eyewall, the inner eyewall will likely rotate cyclonically within the inner eyewall, which will result in some erratic motion at times.[/quote

Nhs saying west still no turn yet

[SouthDadeFish]

on radar it looks like its trying to rebuild its core and a eyewall .. but it has ways to go before its ready to RI.

It already has a core and eyewall. In fact, I see a concentric eyewall structure from the Key West radar.

I wouldn't call the weak convection earlier a core it barely had 30 to 40 DBZ returns. since then there is ( like a said an eyewall forming ) deeper convection and yes I agree on the concentric feature. though it is already tight around the "inner" weak eyewall. I would imagine if convection built in that concentric fearture that the inner feature would just die off right away.

Fair enough. I was just going but what I saw on the last few frames. The concentric eyewall is definitely the wild card at this point. The quicker one eyewall becomes dominant, the worse this will be for the Keys.

[floridasun78]

In their 1 pm position update they reported there was a 159 mph gust earlier today in Cuba... wow!

not supprise i heard alot damage on coast cuba i heard about that

[SouthDadeFish]

Clearly becoming better organized, with deep convection firing about a clearing eye:

[Shoshana]

Anybody got any ideas about securing our garage doors?

I was able to put my car in the garage with Charley, and set a sheet of plywood flush against the door with the car used as a brace, but now garage's loaded with stuff from Husband's business! Wanna make sure it doesn't blow open and leave my house vulnerable to the storm.

A google search only brings me to commercial products people want to sell you. Well, I think it's a little late to find them today!

Anybody got any ideas?

tia

No ideas about the door at this late date but you might want to get everything you can off the floor in the garage, wind driven rain can get in! During Harvey we sprang leaks in the house where we never had them before, it was the wind driven horizontal rain.

'shana

[Aric Dunn]

It already has a core and eyewall. In fact, I see a concentric eyewall structure from the Key West radar.

I wouldn't call the weak convection earlier a core it barely had 30 to 40 DBZ returns. since then there is ( like a said an eyewall forming ) deeper convection and yes I agree on the concentric feature. though it is already tight around the "inner" weak eyewall. I would imagine if convection built in that concentric fearture that the inner feature would just die off right away.

Fair enough. I was just going but what I saw on the last few frames. The concentric eyewall is definitely the wild card at this point. The quicker one eyewall becomes dominant, the worse this will be for the Keys.

agreed! once that southern "eyewall" gets back offshore it definitely has the potential to RI.

[toto]

Appears to be strengthening.

[Evil Jeremy]

Over the past 6 hours (since the 8am advisory), the NHC says that Irma has moved .5 north and .6 west.

That's most certainly does not vibe with the 280 degree motion they advertise.

[floridasun78]

ok their report came to wfor facebook that people at keyest high school assking fot ride out even ask wfor to go doen their get them out issue wfor in upper key in key largo

[T-man]

If you have the matrials use a 2x4 or long piece of wood under the door supports. Measure the distance out and secure a block of wood to the floor to hold it in place.

Thanks for the suggestion. Talking it over right now. Hubs thinks he has an idea of something he could "rig up" to work!

If it does, I'll take a pic. If it doesn't...I guess I won't have a garage anymore (or maybe a house)

I always put a 2x4 in the rails the garage door rollers ride in, on the bottom panel, mainly to keep the floodwater from busting that panel out of the tracks. In your case, you would need to reinforce each panel with the 2x4 to prevent any of them from blowing in. Wish I was at home, I could show you what it looks like.

[floridasun78]

Over the past 6 hours (since the 8am advisory), the NHC says that Irma has moved .5 north and .6 west.

That's most certainly does not vibe with the 280 degree motion they advertise.

what that mean

[Aric Dunn]

12z EUro showing a bend to the NE now? making tampa way way worse off.. lets hopw it does not do that.