ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Hurricane Andrew]

Okeechobee County EOC was struck by lightning in a passing band, their 911 response center is currently offline

My goodness...this is just the start.

[oldframe]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hGD1byu7gJc

Rooftop stream from Key West

[NDG]

NWS has Hudson, Fl (about 25 miles north of Tampa) gusting to 130 on 9/11 at 0400

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?w0=t&w1=td&w2=hi&w3=sfcwind&w3u=1&w4=sky&w5=pop&w6=rh&w7=rain&w8=thunder&w10u=0&w12u=1&w13u=1&AheadHour=1&Submit=Submit&FcstType=digital&textField1=28.3577&textField2=-82.6995&site=all&unit=0&dd=&bw=

Yes that is probably more likely, like I said those wind gusts forecasts by the GFS might be too conservative in some areas, but hopefully not

I'm thinking some of these could be on the high side, esp ones like Orlando and Jax. These are based on the GFS which obviously Is showing a track east of the official forecast track. 30-40 miles east would make a big difference. Also the GFS is going bunkers with the RI up to landfall which is unrealistic in my opinion. I agree that Tampa is underdone though.

12z Euro which is further west than the GFS shows wind gusts around 90 mph around UCF, 95 mph around downtown and around 100 mph just west of Ocoee up to near 110 mph in NW Orange County.

[LarryWx]

I think that a track a bit to the right of the 12Z Euro in FL needs to be considered being that the hour 6 position (2 PM), which is overland in Cuba, is clearly south of reality, which is just N of Cuba.

[WeatherGuesser]

Okeechobee County EOC was struck by lightning in a passing band, their 911 response center is currently offline

I can honestly say I know that experience first hand. It ain't fun to have to scrambled to get everything forwarded to back up call centers and work off hand held radios logging everything on scratch pads.

[Michele B]

If you have the matrials use a 2x4 or long piece of wood under the door supports. Measure the distance out and secure a block of wood to the floor to hold it in place.

Thanks for the suggestion. Talking it over right now. Hubs thinks he has an idea of something he could "rig up" to work!

If it does, I'll take a pic. If it doesn't...I guess I won't have a garage anymore (or maybe a house)

I always put a 2x4 in the rails the garage door rollers ride in, on the bottom panel, mainly to keep the floodwater from busting that panel out of the tracks. In your case, you would need to reinforce each panel with the 2x4 to prevent any of them from blowing in. Wish I was at home, I could show you what it looks like.

Thanks for the suggestion, T-man. I'll show this post to hubs

[Blown Away]

Can somebody send the link to the radar...

[Michele B]

Okeechobee County EOC was struck by lightning in a passing band, their 911 response center is currently offline

My goodness...this is just the start.

Third brown-out, here, too.

[tolakram]

Can somebody send the link to the radar...

This is the wunderground link

https://www.wunderground.com/weather-radar/united-states/fl/key-west/byx/?region=eyw&MR=1

[dukeblue219]

Recon is in the center now... on the way through the NW quadrant peak surface winds were measured at just 82 knots. Pressure looks to be around 940. Flight level winds of 92 knots.

[meriland29]

I would be very surprised if recon doesn't find stronger winds the way she is looking on the radar the past few hrs.

[Dave C]

Long range radar from Key West shows the southern eyewall deepening more.

[meriland29]

Recon is in the center now... on the way through the NW quadrant peak surface winds were measured at just 82 knots. Pressure looks to be around 940.

What? Really?

[Sanibel]

Evacuating now..Put all extra food down disposal...Only wasted about $75 worth and took rest...


Still only about 15mph here in neighborhood...Took last shower for probably a while...


They have expanded the surge zone evacuations to "D"...Germaine Arena Shelter full but taking people anyway...


Just have to set hurricane locks in garage doors...Use T Bar to shut off water main at street...And last exit shutters...Will do idiot check list before leaving...


Hope to see you after the storm...

[dukeblue219]

Recon is in the center now... on the way through the NW quadrant peak surface winds were measured at just 82 knots. Pressure looks to be around 940.

What? Really?

It's one measurement and it's just one quadrant of a storm that's interacting with land, so let's wait and see what the rest of the storm is doing. That said, there's no substitute for actual recon in the eyewall, because if I had a dollar for every poster watching the IR satellite and talking about "rapid intensification" I'd have a house of my own on Key West to be worried about today!

[tolakram]

Recon is in the center now... on the way through the NW quadrant peak surface winds were measured at just 82 knots. Pressure looks to be around 940.

What? Really?

Storms have to build first, which they are, then pressure drops, then winds increase.

[Blown Away]

Irma does seem to be right/NE of the track... Also, Irma appears to be moving faster than forecasted and will likely hit that 00z position early, so maybe this is allowing for the NE component??

[pgoss11]

Evacuating now..Put all extra food down disposal...Only wasted about $75 worth and took rest...


Still only about 15mph here in neighborhood...Took last shower for probably a while...


They have expanded the surge zone evacuations to "D"...Germaine Arena Shelter full but taking people anyway...


Just have to set hurricane locks in garage doors...Use T Bar to shut off water main at street...And last exit shutters...Will do idiot check list before leaving...


Hope to see you after the storm...

Stay safe and good luck Sanibel!

[GCANE]

Radar from Kermit, passing thru the eye.

[dukeblue219]

Hot off the press:
URNT12 KWBC 091840
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL112017
A. 09/18:30:41Z
B. 23 deg 08 min N
080 deg 14 min W
C. 700 mb 2579 m
D. 82 kt
E. 305 deg 11 nm
F. 026 deg 92 kt
G. 304 deg 14 nm
H. 939 mb
I. 13 C / 3050 m
J. 18 C / 3066 m
K. 14 C / NA
L. CLOSED
M. CO15-30
N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. NOAA2 2711A IRMA OB 03
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND AND MAX FL WIND 98 KT 088 / 18 NM 18:35:03Z
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 090 / 09 KTS