ATL: IRMA - Models

[Yellowlab]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/

Scary track...don't like that track for Jose either

[Nimbus]

so we don't see sift to east? all afternoon models been to west?

Rappaport saw a slow down in forward motion and Irma made a small stair step wobble north in the long WV loop.
They probably won't see a shift to the east unless there is a larger second north stair step(soon).

[Steve]

You would think that the pressure falls are probably exaggerated. Should be. But the storm's history makes you wary.

Here's the deal though. Other than for the record books, it probably doesn't matter that much if it's 890, 900 or 910. All of those are extreme for landfalls. I'm not exactly sure what the lowest pressure ever at landfall was on the USA. I know the 1935 Keys storm is a pretty good analog for the first half of Florida. And I think that was second all time to Wilma. But I'm not sure about actual landfall. It would seem Irma will be in the Top 2 or 3 all time with any of those pressures. I might be wrong, so if I am, someone please correct me.

[fendie]

18Z GFS has center going over Big Pine Key, FL around 11am-12pm EDT on Sun Sep 10.

During the 6 hour window from Sunday at 8 am to 2 pm EDT Irma drops from 892 mb to 890 mb with max 10-meter winds going from 114 knots to 113 knots with gusts from 130 knots to 132 knots. Basically the maximum 10-m winds aren't increasing even though there was a 2 mb pressure drop.

At 2 pm Sunday Irma is only about 25 miles North of No Name Key (a key with residents who were known for being off the power grid until 2013) and she is making the journey northward towards Everglades City, FL.

6 hours later on Sunday at 8 pm EDT Irma just went inland at Chokoloskee, FL with max 10-meter winds of 94 knots with gusts to 119. MSLP is at 915 mb.

[bamajammer4eva]

It can't trend much more West without putting Tampa at a much higher risk.

[gatorcane]

I think the models might shift slightly back east until landfall. I see the center moving up through the SW tip of Florida over a Everglades National park on a N track and pass through the Everglades east of Naples/Ft Myers by about 50-75 miles.

[Big Easy Breeze]

You would think that the pressure falls are probably exaggerated. Should be. But the storm's history makes you wary.

Here's the deal though. Other than for the record books, it probably doesn't matter that much if it's 890, 900 or 910. All of those are extreme for landfalls. I'm not exactly sure what the lowest pressure ever at landfall was on the USA. I know the 1935 Keys storm is a pretty good analog for the first half of Florida. And I think that was second all time to Wilma. But I'm not sure about actual landfall. It would seem Irma will be in the Top 2 or 3 all time with any of those pressures. I might be wrong, so if I am, someone please correct me.

I believe Camille holds the lowest pressure at US landfall; 895.

[floridasun78]

hope stift to west go because aloot people going stay my mobile homes parkl

[Blown Away]

I think the models might shift slightly back east until landfall. I see the center moving up through the SW tip of Florida over a Everglades National park on a N track and pass through the Everglades east of Naples/Ft Myers by about 50-75 miles.

I don't think so, Irma's delay in this turn allows the HP to build...

[KWT]

Yeah the trend is still to take Irma westwards, given the models has had a east bias at ALL times with Irma, it really would not take much now for this to stay just offshore and ride up the west coast towards the Panhandle area.

Anyway ECM has done a VERY good job and has made up for a rather poor showing during Harvey.

[gatorcane]

Yet another west shift by the HWRF. Wow. To think this model was east of Florida just 36 hours ago...

[galaxy401]

^ Yikes that will directly hit Sanibel...

Remember a few days ago when we were hopeful after several models had this missing east of Florida? Now suddenly, the west coast is in play.

[Blown Away]

HWRF/HMON 18z shifting W along the W Coast... Euro usually slightly W of these models, so maybe Euro trends in the EGOM??? Wow

[facemane]

You would think that the pressure falls are probably exaggerated. Should be. But the storm's history makes you wary.

Here's the deal though. Other than for the record books, it probably doesn't matter that much if it's 890, 900 or 910. All of those are extreme for landfalls. I'm not exactly sure what the lowest pressure ever at landfall was on the USA. I know the 1935 Keys storm is a pretty good analog for the first half of Florida. And I think that was second all time to Wilma. But I'm not sure about actual landfall. It would seem Irma will be in the Top 2 or 3 all time with any of those pressures. I might be wrong, so if I am, someone please correct me.

I believe Camille holds the lowest pressure at US landfall; 895.

Camille hit a 900 Mb. The Labor day 1935 storm holds the record at 892

[gatorcane]

And guess what? NAVGEM shifts west now firmly in EGOM.

[boca]

We are not in the all clear especially since the size of Irma is going to get bigger.

[KWT]

HMON has quite a significant time over north Cuba, probably the best part of 12hrs. If that happens then Irma will probably be down to a 3 by the time it comes off.

[ronjon]

HMON has quite a significant time over north Cuba, probably the best part of 12hrs. If that happens then Irma will probably be down to a 3 by the time it comes off.

And look at this shear zone setting up with the trough across the northern GOM and central Florida.This with land interaction should really weaken Irma as she makes her way toward central florida after landfall.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=sht&zoom=&time=

[tolakram]

18z HWRF

[tolakram]