ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[AutoPenalti]

I napped for an hour and I left off at page 438, now we are at 446.


What did I miss, lol

[Aric Dunn]

radar velocities are matching well with what recon is finding. so later without recon we can get a good idea what is happeing.

also this would liely be deepening very fast if the southern part of the core was over water..

[dgparent]

In this thread last night someone posted that DirecTV was starting hurricane coverage on a dedicated channel (361-2) where they use the feed from local stations. I have DirecTV so checked it out today. They jump around to various local stations in Florida. It's a good way to get an idea of what's happening there from a more local perspective.

One station showed a photo of Robbie's at mile marker 77 at Islamorada in the Keys. It's already partially underwater. I really can't imagine how bad this is going to be for the Keys.

That was me glad someone else is watching

[Blown Away]

radar velocities are matching well with what recon is finding. so later without recon we can get a good idea what is happeing.

also this would liely be deepening very fast if the southern part of the core was over water..

Aric what are your thoughts on the current movement? Turning earlier or wobbling?

[tgenius]

Is it at all conceivable for the storm to track NE? Won't the high and the trough prevent that from happening, or is it actually conceiveable?

[jabman98]

In this thread last night someone posted that DirecTV was starting hurricane coverage on a dedicated channel (361-2) where they use the feed from local stations. I have DirecTV so checked it out today. They jump around to various local stations in Florida. It's a good way to get an idea of what's happening there from a more local perspective.

One station showed a photo of Robbie's at mile marker 77 at Islamorada in the Keys. It's already partially underwater. I really can't imagine how bad this is going to be for the Keys.

That was me glad someone else is watching

Thanks for mentioning it. I checked it out this morning and it's interesting--definitely gives you more local insight. I'm in Texas so it seems to be available to DirecTV customers around the country, not just in areas affected by the storm.

[oldframe]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hGD1byu7gJc

Rooftop stream from Key West

wfor show that stream ty for link

NP. Here's Southernmost Point

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X7ld45pUueQ

[Aric Dunn]

radar velocities are matching well with what recon is finding. so later without recon we can get a good idea what is happeing.

also this would liely be deepening very fast if the southern part of the core was over water..

Aric what are your thoughts on the current movement? Turning earlier or wobbling?

still looks wnw to me. but every wobble counts right now.. epecially if a wobble takes it just a little farther offshore.. it will start to turn soon.

[MrJames]

3PM Update

SUMMARY OF 300 PM EDT...1900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.1N 80.3W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM E OF VARADERO CUBA
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM SE OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...938 MB...27.70 INCHES

[Aric Dunn]

HIghest doppler velocity I can find is 101kts in that inner most eyewall feature.

[AdamFirst]

Is it at all conceivable for the storm to track NE? Won't the high and the trough prevent that from happening, or is it actually conceiveable?

The NAM (yeah, I know it's the NAM) shows a slight north-northeasterly movement after landfall before heading back north inland over central Florida, bringing it as the current eastern outlier in the model suites. Unsure of why it does.

[PTPatrick]

Anybody got a good sense of what wind gusts Tallahassee will see. Looking more and more like they could end up in a western eyewall situation...in so much as it'll have one up there.

[lisa0825]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hGD1byu7gJc

Rooftop stream from Key West

wfor show that stream ty for link

NP. Here's Southernmost Point

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X7ld45pUueQ

I have been watching that feed. I am amazed at how many people are so casually walking around with their dogs, taking pics. I hope they make it out of this alive... especially the pups! They didn't choose this.

[curtadams]

We packed up and left Hobe Sound Florida because a monster cat 5 was supposed to buzz saw up the east coast . Drove through a horrible evac up the turnpike and I-75. We are now sitting in a hotel in Troy Alabama eating greasy spoon takeout food and know it appears we are in the cone AGAIN!

In the cone 100+ miles inland is NOTHING like being in the cone on the coast. It's several orders of magnitude less dangerous. That said, the media focus on particular model tracks misleads people, because when that track was all over the TV, the reasonable estimate was a track between what we're getting now and missing FL entirely to the east, apart from west side outer bands. Especially in FL, long distance evac by car is iffy apart from particularly dangerous areas like the Keys, because everyplace you might evac too is in the cone too. The point is not so much to avoid the storm entirely as to chose a safe place to risk it, which you did.

[floridasun78]

ok weather guy from wsvn say irma slowing down because getting affect by trough in gulf he show it on sat pic that could send irma sooner to north

[Hammy]

Irma's cloud pattern is starting to elongate slightly to the NW-NNW which similarly to Matthew last year means it's likely to begin the turn north over the next several hours.

[tarheelprogrammer]

As soon as this pulls away from Cuba it will RI. Mark my words.

[GCANE]

 https://twitter.com/ReedTimmerAccu/status/906587506321354752

[norva]

ok weather guy from wsvn say irma slowing down because getting affect by trough in gulf he show it on sat pic that could send irma sooner to north

Would that push it more east or west?

[JPmia]

Whoa..

 https://twitter.com/kaydi_k/status/906579283950403585