ATL: IRMA - Models

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SEASON_CANCELED
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#9801 Postby SEASON_CANCELED » Fri Sep 08, 2017 10:17 pm

euro up in 15 correct?
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#9802 Postby Jevo » Fri Sep 08, 2017 10:18 pm

SEASON_CANCELED wrote:euro up in 15 correct?


2am EST
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#9803 Postby AutoPenalti » Fri Sep 08, 2017 10:18 pm

SEASON_CANCELED wrote:euro up in 15 correct?

No, at 1:45am ET
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#9804 Postby pcolaman » Fri Sep 08, 2017 10:19 pm

SEASON_CANCELED wrote:euro up in 15 correct?



Nope 145 am
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#9805 Postby Jevo » Fri Sep 08, 2017 10:20 pm

SEASON_CANCELED wrote:euro up in 15 correct?


This is pretty handy http://townersweatherpage.blogspot.com/ ... times.html
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#9806 Postby Jevo » Fri Sep 08, 2017 10:30 pm

Off we goooooo

0z GFS +6

Image
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#9807 Postby Jevo » Fri Sep 08, 2017 10:34 pm

0z GFS +18

Image
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#9808 Postby tolakram » Fri Sep 08, 2017 10:36 pm

GFS 0Z so far

Image
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#9809 Postby floridasun78 » Fri Sep 08, 2017 10:37 pm

Jevo wrote:0z GFS +18

Image

do look more toward central keys? let see rest gfs show
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#9810 Postby Steve » Fri Sep 08, 2017 10:38 pm

GFS is east at 30 hours and 924mb vs. 913mb per previous run. South FL getting impacts.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... s=0&ypos=0

Hey floridasun78, you doing alright down there and got all those photos sealed and everything?
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#9811 Postby tolakram » Fri Sep 08, 2017 10:42 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#9812 Postby Jevo » Fri Sep 08, 2017 10:43 pm

Splitting hairs now... but it looks to be either exactly the same or slightly East of the 18z
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#9813 Postby tolakram » Fri Sep 08, 2017 10:44 pm

trend

Image
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#9814 Postby SouthFLTropics » Fri Sep 08, 2017 10:44 pm

Irma and the models are trolling both coasts with these windshield wiper effects. It may be time to move away from model watching and go into wobble watching mode. Every wobble on approach counts now.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#9815 Postby SEASON_CANCELED » Fri Sep 08, 2017 10:44 pm

Way east. Sharp right hook wtf
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#9816 Postby PTPatrick » Fri Sep 08, 2017 10:45 pm

GFS definately more toward middle keys and more inland after Fort Meyers/Everglades city...closer pass to the lake and likely slightly greater effects to the EC...so the west trend may have come to an end.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#9817 Postby SouthFLTropics » Fri Sep 08, 2017 10:46 pm

SEASON_CANCELED wrote:Way east. Sharp right hook wtf


It's East but I think it's a stretch to say it's WAY East.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#9818 Postby gatorcane » Fri Sep 08, 2017 10:46 pm

Yes the GFS has shifted east. First time it has shifted east in like the last 48 hours of runs.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#9819 Postby p1nheadlarry » Fri Sep 08, 2017 10:46 pm

SouthFLTropics wrote:Irma and the models are trolling both coasts with these windshield wiper effects. It may be time to move away from model watching and go into wobble watching mode. Every wobble on approach counts now.


That and watching our shortwave and Atlantic ridge. If Irma keeps going in or along Cuba, makes me believe Key West, BP, and Naples are in for it.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#9820 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Fri Sep 08, 2017 10:46 pm

This should quiet the "missing Florida" and "east coast is in the clear" posts.
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