ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[bahamaswx]

Can someone smarter than me explain what happened here?

I am in disbelief right now... This is Long Island Bahamas.
Check out @Kaydi_K's Tweet: https://twitter.com/Kaydi_K/status/9065 ... 03585?s=09

It's far less impressive when you realize the topography of the ocean floor there.

Those are flats that extend out for probably about a mile. At high tide the depth is uniform at probably 3 feet, and at low tide the flats are almost exposed. Doesn't really take a very strong offshore wind to completely expose them like that.

[terstorm1012]

My understanding is that key west has some higher ground than most of the keys...about 18 feet to be exact. That is gonna be a lonely spot late tonight for those that have decided to stick around. If She passes over them or to it's west it'll be like nothing that island as seen(labor day storm was east of then and smaller)

The cemetery is the highest point. lots of my relatives buried there.

[GCANE]

1800Z Radiosondes over Key West & Tampa
Air columns beginning to hold more moisture.

[TheStormExpert]

Still on the eastern edge of the NHC forecast track.

May I ask where you got that? Is it a program?

It's SFWMD (South Florida Water Management District)
https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/current-weather-conditions

[Aric Dunn]

Not looking good for keys and florida if the ERC type reformation of the core thing is quick.. cat 5 is still possible.. plenty of time.

[Frank P]

Multiple reports of water being driven out around Bahama Islands

[youtube5]https://youtu.be/lwOQbMcXtfU[/youtub]

[youtube5]https://youtu.be/qJQ68dVDADA[/youtub]

Hurricanes can do that? That's crazy.

Yes they do.. when Hurricane Elena was heading back to Biloxi I was watching the Gulf in front of my beach house.... as the west wall of the eye approached, with the winds blowing out of the NE to N at about 110-120 mph, and a few hours before the eye hit... you could not see any water in the Gulf as far as the eye could see... I had not idea where the edge of the water was in relationship to the sand bars... it was the most incredible low tide ever... could not go out there obviously because of the wind but more so because the top of large oak tree limbs were tearing off the trees and flying out into the Gulf... and amazing experience... be that as it may.. when the eye wall shifted west of me and now the wind blowing out of the south about 125 mph I saw the tide rise from ... where I can't even see it... to about 9 feet above normal near the sea wall in just minutes... freak me out to say the least... but I loved every minute of the experience...

[Mello1]

Multiple reports of water being driven out around Bahama Islands

[youtube5]https://youtu.be/lwOQbMcXtfU[/youtub]

[youtube5]https://youtu.be/qJQ68dVDADA[/youtub]

Hurricanes can do that? That's crazy.

YES. This is the kind of creepy stuff we saw around the coast before Ike happened. Ominous sign, for sure.

Reminds me of a prelude to a tsunami...

[Kingarabian]

000
URNT15 KWBC 091931
NOAA2 2711A IRMA HDOB 14 20170909
192130 2445N 07904W 6963 03114 9990 +099 +075 133070 071 037 002 00
192200 2446N 07907W 6958 03119 9995 +095 +077 132069 070 037 002 00
192230 2448N 07909W 6959 03119 0002 +089 +080 130067 068 037 002 00
192300 2450N 07911W 6959 03118 0006 +086 +081 128068 069 037 002 00
192330 2451N 07913W 6958 03121 0002 +090 +080 128068 069 037 002 00
192400 2453N 07916W 6958 03123 0003 +091 +072 127068 068 037 002 00
192430 2455N 07918W 6959 03123 0003 +093 +066 125068 068 037 002 00
192500 2457N 07920W 6959 03123 0003 +093 +064 125067 067 037 002 00
192530 2459N 07922W 6957 03125 0000 +097 +062 124067 068 037 002 00
192600 2501N 07924W 6960 03125 0004 +095 +064 121065 066 037 002 00
192630 2502N 07926W 6958 03127 0001 +098 +063 120067 068 037 002 00
192700 2504N 07928W 6957 03128 0010 +090 +073 120066 066 037 002 00
192730 2506N 07930W 6959 03127 0011 +089 +079 122067 067 037 002 00
192800 2508N 07932W 6959 03128 0005 +095 +075 122067 067 037 002 00
192830 2510N 07934W 6958 03130 0002 +099 +070 121066 066 037 002 00
192900 2512N 07937W 6958 03132 0009 +096 +073 120064 064 007 000 00
192930 2513N 07939W 6958 03134 0015 +092 +073 118063 063 000 000 00
193000 2515N 07941W 6957 03137 0015 +093 +074 118063 063 000 000 00
193030 2517N 07943W 6957 03139 0014 +096 +072 116062 062 000 000 00
193100 2519N 07945W 6960 03136 0018 +093 +073 115063 063 000 000 00

[HeeBGBz]

Multiple reports of water being driven out around Bahama Islands

[youtube5]https://youtu.be/lwOQbMcXtfU[/youtub]

[youtube5]https://youtu.be/qJQ68dVDADA[/youtub]

Hurricanes can do that? That's crazy.

YES. This is the kind of creepy stuff we saw around the coast before Ike happened. Ominous sign, for sure.

Like its building a tsunami of a storm surge for someplace.

[stormreader]

I bet recon finds pressure falling pretty fast now.. likely down another few mb this pass ...

If you're right, that would not be good, because the very rapid deepening will probably come over night and in the very early morning hours.

[Evil Jeremy]

Still on the eastern edge of the NHC forecast track.

https://gifyu.com/images/radar_byx2_anim.gif

May I ask where you got that? Is it a program?

It's SFWMD (South Florida Water Management District)
https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/current-weather-conditions

Thanks for that link. It will be very useful over the next 24 hours. Great way of tracking Irma relative to NHC track.

[Kingarabian]

Hurricanes can do that? That's crazy.

YES. This is the kind of creepy stuff we saw around the coast before Ike happened. Ominous sign, for sure.

Reminds me of a prelude to a tsunami...

That's the first thing I thought. General beach knowledge that we in Hawaii look for, that if you're on the beach and you suddenly see the shore waters recede, run for cover because it's likely a Tsunami. I guess the same goes for Hurricanes.

[Kingarabian]

Multiple reports of water being driven out around Bahama Islands

[youtube5]https://youtu.be/lwOQbMcXtfU[/youtub]

[youtube5]https://youtu.be/qJQ68dVDADA[/youtub]

Hurricanes can do that? That's crazy.

Yes they do.. when Hurricane Elena was heading back to Biloxi I was watching the Gulf in front of my beach house.... as the west wall of the eye approached, with the winds blowing out of the NE to N at about 110-120 mph, and a few hours before the eye hit... you could not see any water in the Gulf as far as the eye could see... I had not idea where the edge of the water was in relationship to the sand bars... it was the most incredible low tide ever... could not go out there obviously because of the wind but more so because the top of large oak tree limbs were tearing off the trees and flying out into the Gulf... and amazing experience... be that as it may.. when the eye wall shifted west of me and now the wind blowing out of the south about 125 mph I saw the tide rise from ... where I can't even see it... to about 9 feet above normal near the sea wall in just minutes... freak me out to say the least... but I loved every minute of the experience...

Wow, talk about something straight out of a movie.. Thanks for sharing that!

[WeatherGuesser]

Current totals of Irma's 5 threads: 994 Pages, 19,827 posts.

[Noles2016]

Euro wind gust predictions as the storm moves over SW and W FLorida.

This doesn't give me the warm and fuzzies here in Wakulla County.

[tolakram]

30 frame visible loop

https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-abi?satellite=GOESEastconusband02&lat=24&lon=-80&width=1000&height=800&zoom=4&type=Animation&numframes=30&quality=90

COD visible

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=meso1-02-96-0-10

[galaxy401]

Those videos in the Bahamas about the ocean waters receding are...freaky. Really got a bad feeling about the storm surge...

Also those people that stayed in the Florida Keys are quickly going to have their smiles disappear by tonight.

[Kingarabian]

000
URNT15 KWBC 091941
NOAA2 2711A IRMA HDOB 15 20170909
193130 2520N 07948W 6957 03140 0015 +096 +072 116063 063 000 000 00
193200 2521N 07950W 6959 03137 0010 +101 +064 116063 064 000 000 00
193230 2520N 07953W 6958 03139 0011 +101 +061 115064 065 000 000 00
193300 2520N 07956W 6959 03137 0013 +098 +065 113063 064 000 000 00
193330 2519N 07958W 6964 03131 0014 +096 +068 111064 064 000 000 00
193400 2518N 08001W 6983 03107 0013 +097 +071 110065 065 000 000 00
193430 2517N 08003W 6962 03128 0010 +096 +073 111066 066 000 000 00
193500 2515N 08005W 6966 03123 0010 +094 +075 112066 067 000 000 00
193530 2514N 08007W 6966 03119 0008 +093 +077 111067 067 000 000 00
193600 2512N 08009W 6964 03119 0006 +092 +080 110065 066 000 000 00
193630 2511N 08011W 6966 03115 0000 +095 +081 109066 066 000 000 00
193700 2509N 08012W 6964 03115 9999 +093 +082 108065 065 000 000 03
193730 2508N 08014W 6965 03113 9998 +094 +083 104062 062 000 000 03
193800 2506N 08016W 6965 03112 9995 +094 +087 102062 062 000 000 03
193830 2505N 08018W 6964 03111 9993 +094 +090 099061 063 000 000 03
193900 2503N 08020W 6965 03109 9982 +100 +097 098060 062 /// /// 03
193930 2501N 08022W 6968 03102 9973 +106 +098 100063 064 /// /// 03
194000 2500N 08024W 6964 03105 9964 +112 +091 099063 063 /// /// 03
194030 2458N 08026W 6961 03106 9958 +116 +090 098063 064 /// /// 03
194100 2456N 08028W 6958 03108 9949 +120 +085 093062 063 /// /// 03

[KBBOCA]

Was offline most of today, so am just catching up. Skimmed the last 20 pages or so... hope not to repeat stuff already posted.

Storm Surge risk for Naples area - very alarming

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/906564772400742401




Philip Klotzbach‏Verified account @philklotzbach 3h3 hours ago

Potential storm surge inundation per NHC graphic is downright frightening for Naples, FL... >9 feet for most of the area. #Irma

larger version of graphic here: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DJTDvD-UIAArjoD.jpg

[Aric Dunn]

A few 110 kts now showing up on doppler velocites.. getting stronger..