ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[dgparent]

that is one fascinating camera on the keys - FYI someone else posted it 1st

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X7ld45pUueQ

[KBBOCA]

Storm surge maps for other areas are available:

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/906565412422168577




Philip Klotzbach‏Verified account @philklotzbach 3h3 hours ago
Replying to @philklotzbach

Storm surge inundation maps are available on NHC's website. A new product and an excellent resource!

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphic ... n#contents …

[wx247]

Waves are really beginning to crash at the Southernmost point. Those people are crazy out there!

Over 7,600 without power right now in Broward county. 26,000+ in Miami-Dade.

[KBBOCA]

WInd Forecast for downtown Tampa Bay - from NWS:

 https://twitter.com/SteveBowenWx/status/906569281638412288




Steve Bowen‏ @SteveBowenWx 2h2 hours ago

Per @NWSTampaBay: Latest hourly forecast for downtown Tampa shows four consecutive hours of 80+ mph sustained winds early Monday. #Irma

Graphic: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DJTHfaRX0AAaj--.jpg

[KBBOCA]

Water Vapor image:

 https://twitter.com/NWSEastern/status/906572919903580160




NWS Eastern Region‏Verified account @NWSEastern 2h2 hours ago

#GOES-16 upper level water vapor imagery shows upper level low dropping south toward Gulf Coast expected to help turn #Irma toward the north

[AdamFirst]

Training band developing over Martin/St. Lucie County coastal waters...torrential downpours and pretty decent gusts into PSL

[KBBOCA]

ECMWF 12Z:

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/906579174139338752




Ryan Maue‏Verified account @RyanMaue 2h2 hours ago

No change to the ECMWF forecast at 12z. Intensifying Hurricane #Irma right up to landfall.
928 mb suggests dangerous high-end Cat 4.

[stormhunter7]

http://wkrg.com/2017/09/09/lightning-strikes-hurricane-hunter-plane-mid-flight-with-news-5-aboard/

Lightning Strikes Hurricane Hunter Plane With News 5 Aboard

[KBBOCA]

CORRECTION: In spite of what tweet says, this seems to be a model, not NWS. Sorry for posting incorrect info.

NWS Forecast - 144 MPH winds for West Coast of FL

Eric Holthaus‏ @EricHolthaus 2h2 hours ago

This isn't a model, this is the actual official NWS forecast. Wind gusts up to 144mph for the West Coast of Florida.

https://twitter.com/EricHolthaus/status ... 9763406849

Retweeting this:

Eric Fisher‏ @ericfisher

NWS forecast wind gust speeds for Southwest Florida and Tampa area. #Irma


 https://twitter.com/ericfisher/status/906501278162997249




Image link: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DJSKF9AWAAIVF-r.jpg

[Kingarabian]

KKBOCA, thanks for posting tweets.

[KBBOCA]

Model Forecast wind gusts for entire FL Peninsula:

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/906580586143404032




Ryan Maue‏Verified account @RyanMaue 2h2 hours ago

Model forecast wind gusts are consistent w/Category 4 hurricane up entire Florida peninsula ... NWS forecasts have been nearly same.

[tolakram]

NWS Forecast - 144 MPH winds for West Coast of FL

Eric Holthaus‏ @EricHolthaus 2h2 hours ago

This isn't a model, this is the actual official NWS forecast. Wind gusts up to 144mph for the West Coast of Florida.

https://twitter.com/EricHolthaus/status ... 9763406849

Retweeting this:

Eric Fisher‏ @ericfisher

NWS forecast wind gust speeds for Southwest Florida and Tampa area. #Irma


[tw eet]https://twitter.com/ericfisher/status/906501278162997249[/tweet]

Image link: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DJSKF9AWAAIVF-r.jpg

That is not a NWS map, that's a Weatherbell map showing one of the models.

[Cuda]

So I'm curious how you guys think our standard newish homes in Florida will fare with some of these bigger winds 110-140+?

I have a home north of Tampa that is unoccupied and I didnt have the ability to do any prep on it. Is it likely to have blown out windows, doors, patio doors, water from the rain throughout the house... or even worse? I'm wondering what sort of damage I might be looking at there.

[KBBOCA]

Interesting - probably VERY needed about now. FEMA has created an Irma Rumor Control page:

 https://twitter.com/fema/status/906292721219985408




FEMA‏Verified account @fema 21h21 hours ago

We created an #Irma rumor control page to help you verify what’s true and what’s not. Visit it here: https://www.fema.gov/hurricane-irma-rumor-control …

[Kingarabian]

Been 20 minutes since the last HDOB. Guess NOAA9 is having comm issues.

[MrJames]

SUMMARY OF 400 PM EDT...2000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.3N 80.4W
ABOUT 125 MI...205 KM SE OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...938 MB...27.70 INCHES

[Kingarabian]

000
URNT15 KWBC 092000
NOAA9 2811A IRMA HDOB 16 20170909
195100 2628N 07629W 1653 13666 0679 -608 //// 227018 018 /// /// 05
195130 2628N 07624W 1653 13666 0679 -608 //// 230018 018 /// /// 05
195200 2627N 07620W 1653 13668 0680 -606 //// 224018 018 /// /// 05
195230 2627N 07616W 1652 13672 0682 -606 //// 218018 019 /// /// 05
195300 2626N 07612W 1652 13666 0679 -606 //// 222017 018 /// /// 05
195330 2626N 07608W 1653 13668 0679 -606 //// 219019 020 /// /// 05
195400 2624N 07604W 1652 13668 0678 -606 //// 218021 021 /// /// 05
195430 2622N 07601W 1653 13666 0678 -606 //// 221021 021 /// /// 05
195500 2619N 07558W 1653 13665 0678 -605 //// 224020 021 /// /// 05
195530 2616N 07556W 1653 13665 0677 -606 //// 229023 025 /// /// 05
195600 2613N 07554W 1652 13668 0678 -604 //// 228025 025 /// /// 05
195630 2609N 07554W 1653 13666 0677 -604 //// 233025 026 /// /// 05
195700 2606N 07554W 1653 13667 0678 -604 //// 232025 025 /// /// 05
195730 2602N 07554W 1653 13664 0677 -605 //// 238023 023 /// /// 05
195800 2558N 07555W 1653 13664 0678 -605 //// 244023 023 /// /// 05
195830 2555N 07555W 1653 13668 0679 -604 //// 243023 023 /// /// 05
195900 2551N 07556W 1653 13669 0679 -603 //// 240023 023 /// /// 05
195930 2548N 07556W 1652 13668 0679 -602 //// 237021 021 /// /// 05
200000 2544N 07557W 1653 13666 0678 -601 //// 235019 021 /// /// 05
200030 2541N 07558W 1653 13668 0679 -602 //// 232020 021 /// /// 05

[Zarniwoop]

Not looking good for keys and florida if the ERC type reformation of the core thing is quick.. cat 5 is still possible.. plenty of time.

I know it means nothing, but last ERC took like 24 hours.

[Cee22]

We’re in Melbourne FL and everyone’s saying we won’t even be getting hurricane force winds. Is there any truth to this? I don’t want to be complacent or let guard down.

[Meteorcane]

NWS Forecast - 144 MPH winds for West Coast of FL


Image link: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DJSKF9AWAAIVF-r.jpg

That is not a NWS map, that's a Weatherbell map showing one of the models.

That is the NWS gridded forecast (NDFD National Digital Forecast Database)