ATL: IRMA - Models

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Post Reply
Message
Author
Sanibel
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10375
Joined: Mon Aug 30, 2004 11:06 pm
Location: Offshore SW Florida

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#9861 Postby Sanibel » Fri Sep 08, 2017 11:50 pm

Our local met -who is at full alarm mode - said watch for possible Gulf entry... Said trough failed to erode ridge...
1 likes   
Top
User avatar
Blizzard96x
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 84
Joined: Wed Aug 19, 2015 4:34 am

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#9862 Postby Blizzard96x » Fri Sep 08, 2017 11:51 pm

joey wrote:
floridasun78 wrote:will rest go east like gfs this cazy hurr to track models



Gfs east sf
Cmc east again back to se fl


This is not true, CMC is way west.
1 likes   
Top
AxaltaRacing24
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1753
Age: 25
Joined: Wed Jul 27, 2016 11:14 am
Location: Jupiter, FL

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#9863 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Fri Sep 08, 2017 11:51 pm

floridasun78 wrote:
AxaltaRacing24 wrote:The CMC is the most bipolar model I've ever seen.

you think would go far west? that mean miami see only ts wind if cms right

Depends on how silly the run gets. If it goes straight into FL then maybe, but if it goes far into the GOM then no.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Steve
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 9621
Joined: Sat Apr 05, 2003 11:41 pm
Location: Not a state-caster

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#9864 Postby Steve » Fri Sep 08, 2017 11:51 pm

HWRF mostly runs the coast of Cuba. It curves up soon (convex?) so west or wnw can still move close to the shoreline. It's turning up at 33 hours after smashing the Cuban coast for the 21 hours into the run began 7P.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=100

HMON out to 36 hours spends less time on the coast but swings pretty wide into the western Keys.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0900&fh=36
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
ALhurricane
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 452
Joined: Wed Jan 08, 2003 12:46 pm
Location: Daphne, AL

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#9865 Postby ALhurricane » Fri Sep 08, 2017 11:52 pm

Sanibel wrote:Our local met -who is at full alarm mode - said watch for possible Gulf entry... Said trough failed to erode ridge...


That's just crazy. The trough is just coming in. :)
3 likes   
Top
User avatar
Evil Jeremy
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5463
Age: 32
Joined: Mon Apr 10, 2006 2:10 pm
Location: Los Angeles, CA

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#9866 Postby Evil Jeremy » Fri Sep 08, 2017 11:56 pm

HWRF maybe half a degree to the east through 39 hours.
0 likes   
Frances 04 / Jeanne 04 / Katrina 05 / Wilma 05 / Fay 08 / Debby 12 / Andrea 13 / Colin 16 / Hermine 16 / Matthew 16 / Irma 17
Top
User avatar
Steve
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 9621
Joined: Sat Apr 05, 2003 11:41 pm
Location: Not a state-caster

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#9867 Postby Steve » Fri Sep 08, 2017 11:56 pm

ALhurricane wrote:
Sanibel wrote:Our local met -who is at full alarm mode - said watch for possible Gulf entry... Said trough failed to erode ridge...


That's just crazy. The trough is just coming in. :)


Probably was referring to the one in the East and not the reinforcement coming through Arkansas at the moment.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/comp/ceus/wv-animated.gif
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Jevo
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1729
Age: 47
Joined: Tue Aug 03, 2004 8:45 pm
Location: The Flemish Cap
Contact:
Contact Jevo

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#9868 Postby Jevo » Sat Sep 09, 2017 12:06 am

0z HWRF +42 back East from 18z... Not by much, but noticeable

Goes on to run up the spine of the state

Image
Last edited by Jevo on Sat Sep 09, 2017 12:08 am, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
Disclaimer: 50% of the time I have no clue of what I am talking about. Chances are I am taking a less than educated guess that sounds good because 10 years ago I stole Mike Watkins book 'The Hurricane and its Impact'. For official information please direct yourself to the NHC and their cadre of weather geniuses.
Top
bella_may
Category 4
Category 4
Posts: 908
Joined: Wed Dec 22, 2010 2:13 pm
Location: SE Mississippi coast

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#9869 Postby bella_may » Sat Sep 09, 2017 12:14 am

Which CMC are y'all looking at? The latest one I see takes it up the spine of Florida
1 likes   
Top
bamajammer4eva
Category 4
Category 4
Posts: 907
Joined: Sun Apr 18, 2010 3:21 am
Location: Ozark, AL

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#9870 Postby bamajammer4eva » Sat Sep 09, 2017 12:17 am

No Change in Navgem

Image
0 likes   
Top
floridasun78
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3755
Joined: Sun May 17, 2009 10:16 pm
Location: miami fl

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#9871 Postby floridasun78 » Sat Sep 09, 2017 12:25 am

Steve wrote:HWRF mostly runs the coast of Cuba. It curves up soon (convex?) so west or wnw can still move close to the shoreline. It's turning up at 33 hours after smashing the Cuban coast for the 21 hours into the run began 7P.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=100

HMON out to 36 hours spends less time on the coast but swings pretty wide into the western Keys.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0900&fh=36
missing part of run
1 likes   
Top
User avatar
sponger
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1620
Joined: Thu Jul 22, 2004 11:26 am
Location: St Augustine

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#9872 Postby sponger » Sat Sep 09, 2017 12:45 am

Alright Euro is running. Hoping it does not follow the GFS EAST.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... s=0&ypos=0
1 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
PandaCitrus
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 424
Joined: Mon Sep 04, 2017 2:44 pm

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#9873 Postby PandaCitrus » Sat Sep 09, 2017 12:55 am

Euro at 24 hours is still on the Cuban coast!
0 likes   
Top
floridasun78
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3755
Joined: Sun May 17, 2009 10:16 pm
Location: miami fl

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#9874 Postby floridasun78 » Sat Sep 09, 2017 12:55 am

sponger wrote:Alright Euro is running. Hoping it does not follow the GFS EAST.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... s=0&ypos=0

look like west but not all out
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
sponger
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1620
Joined: Thu Jul 22, 2004 11:26 am
Location: St Augustine

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#9875 Postby sponger » Sat Sep 09, 2017 12:55 am

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0900&fh=24

24 HR still hugging Cuba.
0 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
User avatar
FLpanhandle91
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1033
Age: 34
Joined: Mon Sep 13, 2010 3:50 pm
Location: Fort Walton Beach, FL

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#9876 Postby FLpanhandle91 » Sat Sep 09, 2017 12:57 am

That is quite the shift west so far... is it possible 00z Euro took the earlier dive into Cuba and ran with it a bit too much?
0 likes   
Top
Alyono
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 6961
Joined: Fri Apr 26, 2013 3:52 pm
Location: Texas Coast

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#9877 Postby Alyono » Sat Sep 09, 2017 12:57 am

slight SW shift from the EC. GFS shift can be ignored
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
sponger
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1620
Joined: Thu Jul 22, 2004 11:26 am
Location: St Augustine

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#9878 Postby sponger » Sat Sep 09, 2017 12:58 am

Ridge is gone at 24, cleared to go North.
0 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
PandaCitrus
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 424
Joined: Mon Sep 04, 2017 2:44 pm

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#9879 Postby PandaCitrus » Sat Sep 09, 2017 12:59 am

Wow, if this goes into the gulf and hits the panhandle and misses the entire Florida peninsula to the west. That would be something.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
tronbunny
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1558
Joined: Wed Sep 01, 2004 1:18 am
Location: Central FL

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#9880 Postby tronbunny » Sat Sep 09, 2017 1:00 am

PandaCitrus wrote:Euro at 24 hours is still on the Cuban coast!

Irma is south and west of the points from last 2 runs
0 likes   
Top
Post Reply

Return to “2017”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 2 guests