ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[SouthDadeFish]

This could be the most dangerous storm the FL Keys have seen since 1935. At the very least, since Donna and Betsy in the 60s. Awful situation unfolding.

Wasn't Georges a beast for them?

Georges was bad, but this storm has the potential to be much worse. Hopefully the broad wind field never organizes, but it's already powerful enough to cause major damage and life-threatening storm surge.

[AdamFirst]

Shooting gallery

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Miami FL
446 PM EDT SAT SEP 9 2017

The National Weather Service in Miami has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
North central Broward County in southeastern Florida...

* Until 515 PM EDT

* At 446 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located near Intersection I-75 And U.S. 27, or 9 miles west of
Sunrise, moving west at 35 mph.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Miami FL
448 PM EDT SAT SEP 9 2017

The National Weather Service in Miami has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
Southwestern Collier County in southwestern Florida...

* Until 515 PM EDT

* At 448 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located over Everglades City, moving west at 35 mph.

[Kingarabian]

The outer eyewall is starting to look really well defined on the last few radar scans.

[img]https://i.imgur.com/j1fYr63.gif[img]

Looks like it was in an EWRC and is now completing it as there appears to be a decaying inner wall.

[meriland29]

The outer eyewall is starting to look really well defined on the last few radar scans.

I agree, she looks much more defined, as everyone noted. Still surprising recon only found 99kt winds max last pass. Although, she could be dropping pressure without the winds yet.

[CaptinCrunch]

Winds lag behind pressure drops, next recon should see wind speeds increasing

[KBBOCA]

NWS Key West‏Verified account @NWSKeyWest 3m3 minutes ago

Peak wind gust of 56 knots or 64 mph measured at 4:40pm by the @weatherflow mesonet on Smith Shoal Light. #Flwx #FLKeys

[meriland29]

Winds ladle behind pressure drops, next recon should see wind speeds increasing

Possibly, unless she, like another poster mentioned, pulls a Ike.

[KBBOCA]

Can track Keys Power outages here: (for now, while Comms are working!)

Keys Energy Services‏ @KeysEnergy 7m7 minutes ago

We will do our best to post major outages as they occur and communications permit. Click to track outages @ https://ubserve.kwcityelectric.com:7576 ... enu-parent …

[CaptinCrunch]

Winds ladle behind pressure drops, next recon should see wind speeds increasing

Possibly, unless she, like another poster mentioned, pulls a Ike.

No, she's a beast and has her own agenda. Ike she will not be.

[KBBOCA]

Mike Theiss, a National Geographic photographer, seems to be one of those staying in Key West.

He's posted some interesting pix on his twitter feed of how fast the waters are coming in at Key West:

https://twitter.com/MikeTheiss

[Kingarabian]

000
URNT15 KWBC 092051
NOAA2 2711A IRMA HDOB 22 20170909
204130 2453N 07856W 6957 03132 0003 +099 +070 131064 065 032 002 00
204200 2455N 07858W 6957 03134 0010 +094 +075 130064 065 034 003 00
204230 2456N 07901W 6957 03133 0014 +090 +078 132064 064 036 002 00
204300 2458N 07903W 6959 03128 0009 +091 +079 133065 065 035 003 00
204330 2459N 07905W 6960 03125 0006 +092 +079 131065 066 036 002 00
204400 2500N 07908W 6957 03130 0008 +092 +078 132065 066 036 002 00
204430 2501N 07910W 6954 03134 0008 +094 +077 132065 066 037 002 00
204500 2502N 07913W 6958 03130 0005 +094 +082 129064 065 036 002 00
204530 2503N 07916W 6965 03123 0005 +094 +093 124067 068 035 004 00
204600 2504N 07918W 6963 03123 0001 +096 +092 125063 063 036 003 00
204630 2505N 07921W 6960 03125 0000 +096 +093 122066 067 037 003 00
204700 2506N 07924W 6962 03124 0004 +095 +094 121066 066 032 003 00
204730 2507N 07926W 6966 03119 9999 +098 +092 125065 065 033 003 00
204800 2508N 07929W 6967 03117 0000 +097 +079 124064 065 035 003 00
204830 2508N 07932W 6959 03125 0003 +095 +077 121064 065 036 002 00
204900 2508N 07935W 6965 03119 9998 +099 +074 118063 063 040 002 00
204930 2509N 07938W 6962 03119 9999 +096 +076 118063 063 041 002 00
205000 2509N 07940W 6962 03118 9998 +095 +080 119064 065 041 002 00
205030 2509N 07943W 6963 03116 9994 +098 +074 118064 064 041 002 00
205100 2510N 07946W 6960 03120 9992 +100 +078 116064 064 041 002 00

[SouthDadeFish]

The reason the peak winds are not as large as earlier is because the strong winds are spread out over a larger area, which may be worse for the storm surge threat. If convection continues to fire near the TC center, the wind field may gradually contract and the peak winds will increase.

[meriland29]

Dvorak, if anyone is interested..


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif

[AdamFirst]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Irma Advisory Number 43
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
500 PM EDT Sat Sep 09 2017

...EYE OF IRMA BEGINNING TO MOVE SLOWLY AWAY FROM THE COAST OF CUBA
WHILE WEATHER IS DETERIORATING IN SOUTH FLORIDA...
...MAJOR HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AT
DAYBREAK...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.4N 80.5W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM ENE OF VARADERO CUBA
ABOUT 115 MI...190 KM SE OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...933 MB...27.55 INCHES

[Raebie]

I'm not sure what's more disconcerting. The impacts at Key West with Irma so far away or the number of people I'm seeing come and go on that cam. Probably both.

[CaptinCrunch]

Both, as there is a good chance Key West goes completely under water. If you get a surge of anything over 8' Key West is in super bad shape. I'm not sure but someone said most of the island keys are only about 6' above sea level.

[tolakram]

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/906623341179527168




Philip Klotzbach ✔ @philklotzbach
#Irma's pressure is down to 933 mb - the last U.S. landfalling hurricane with a lower pressure was Katrina & Florida landfall was Andrew.
5:00 PM - Sep 9, 2017

[KBBOCA]

The KEY MESSAGES section of the latest 5 pm NHC discussion - very sobering stuff:
I've highlighted all the instances of "life-threatening"

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... HHMM.shtml

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Irma is expected bring life-threatening wind and storm surge to
the Florida Keys and southwestern Florida as an extremely dangerous
major hurricane tonight through Saturday. Preparations in southwest
Florida should be completed within the next few hours, as
tropical-storm-force winds are expected to begin tonight.

2. There is an imminent danger of life-threatening storm surge
flooding in portions of central and southern Florida, including the
Florida Keys, where a Storm Surge Warning is in effect. The threat
of catastrophic storm surge flooding is highest along the southwest
coast of Florida, where 10 to 15 feet of inundation above ground
level is expected. This is a life-threatening situation, and
everyone in these areas should immediately follow any evacuation
instructions from local officials.

3. Irma will bring life-threatening wind impacts to much of Florida
regardless of the exact track of the center. Wind hazards from Irma
are also expected to spread northward through much of Georgia
and portions of South Carolina and Alabama.

4. Irma is expected to produce very heavy rain and inland flooding.
Total rain accumulations of 10 to 20 inches, with isolated amounts
of between 20 and 25 inches, are expected over the Florida Keys, the
Florida peninsula, and southeast Georgia from Saturday through
Monday. Significant river flooding is possible in these areas. Early
next week Irma will also bring periods of heavy rain to much of the
southeast United States where an average of 2 to 6 inches is
forecast, with isolated higher amounts, from North and South
Carolina to Tennessee and eastern Alabama. This includes some
mountainous areas which are more prone to flash flooding. Residents
throughout the southeast states should remain aware of the flood
threat and stay tuned to forecasts and warnings.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/2100Z 23.4N 80.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 10/0600Z 24.1N 81.3W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 10/1800Z 25.7N 82.0W 120 KT 140 MPH
36H 11/0600Z 28.3N 82.6W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 11/1800Z 31.2N 83.8W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND
72H 12/1800Z 35.5N 88.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
96H 13/1800Z 36.1N 89.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H 14/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila

[Kazmit]

Storm surge already getting bad in Key West. It might be completely underwater by the peak of the storm. Quite a shocking video.
https://www.instagram.com/p/BY1aBjhAKjj/?taken-at=213444877

EDIT: I am not sure if this is real, it may be from a different location. Sorry for any confusion.

[Aric Dunn]

As big as the waves already are.. the gulf stream is netorious for producing Rogue Waves with swells going against the flow of the current in the right direction. They can be double the size of the average wave height and can travel for long distances to the coast.