EPAC: DORA - Post-Tropical

[tolakram]

Levi posted a link that appears to be a working version of Build Your Own using GOES 16.

https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-abi?satellite=GOESEastconusband02&lat=17.5&lon=-106.5&width=1000&height=800&zoom=1&type=Animation&numframes=30&quality=100

[tolakram]

Zoom 4. Sped up this view is amazingly cool looking.
https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-abi?satellite=GOESEastconusband02&lat=17.5&lon=-106.5&width=1000&height=800&zoom=4&type=Animation&numframes=30&quality=92

[tolakram]

My bad, they actually publish the link here:

GOES 16 Build Your Own Images

https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/goes/abi/wxSatelliteAPI.html

[Hurricane Andrew]

What does Levi mean by a "cloud cliff"?

[hurricanes1234]

This has to be the best-looking 75 knot storm I've seen in a while.

[Yellow Evan]

EP, 04, 201706261800, 10, DVTS, CI, , 1760N, 10680W, , 1, 77, 2, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , E, SAB, AS, VIM, 1, 4545 /////, , , GOES15, LLCC, T, DT=4.5 BO EYE MET=4.5 PT=4.5 FTBO DT

[Yellow Evan]

EP, 04, 201706261800, 10, DVTS, CI, , 1760N, 10680W, , 1, 77, 2, 979, 2, DVRK, , , , , , , , , , , , , , E, TAFB, DM, VI, 1, 4545 /////, , , GOES15, CSC, T, FT based on MET and PT

CDO thickness likely hurting this.

[cycloneye]

EP, 04, 2017062618, , BEST, 0, 176N, 1068W, 80, 981, HU

[Yellow Evan]

Why is the NHC ignoring ADT? Lack of eye circularity?

[Kingarabian]

Don't always need -80C or -90C cloud tops in order for a hurricane to pack >=Cat.2 winds... We've seen that many times in the past years, where convection would be warm, but the system would have a defined eye and pack >= Cat.2 winds.

[Ntxw]

She's warmed a lot and shrunken so 80kts is reasonable to me now. However the 75kts earlier is boggling to me. Perhaps something post season analysis might want to revise

[Kingarabian]

Actually looks like another 6-8 hours remaining over warm waters of 27C or greater before SST's completely drop off.

[tropicwatch]

My bad, they actually publish the link here:

GOES 16 Build Your Own Images

https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/goes/abi/wxSatelliteAPI.html

I remember you telling me about that site last year. Recently I came across this one. Makes it easier for the overlays, zoom, lat lon and so forth.
http://hurricanecity.com/custom-satellite/?satellite=GOES-E+CONUS&type=Animation&numframes=10&width=600&height=400&info=ir&zoom=1&palette=ir2.pal&quality=55&map=standard&mapcolor=black&lat=17.3&lon=-106.3

[Kingarabian]

She's warmed a lot and shrunken so 80kts is reasonable to me now. However the 75kts earlier is boggling to me. Perhaps something post season analysis might want to revise

Shrinking is good as it'll allow it to ramp up quickly with the time it has remaining.

[hurricanes1234]

But the eyewall looks to be eroding now.

[hurricanes1234]

I'm not quite sure what to make of it, because the eye is still clearing out, yet it's being eroded in the northern quadrant.

[Kingarabian]

I'm not quite sure what to make of it, because the eye is still clearing out, yet it's being eroded in the northern quadrant.

Seems to be taking in dry air.

[TheStormExpert]

Looks like a strong 95kts. Cat.2 to me, likely has peaked if I had to guess.

[hurricanes1234]

Yes I think it's peaked too. You could see the convective canopy waning and the eyewall opening up on infrared images. Still maintaining a very impressive appearance on visible satellite imagery though.

[cycloneye]

It has peaked.


Hurricane Dora Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042017
300 PM MDT Mon Jun 26 2017

Since the previous advisory, Dora's cloud pattern has noticeably
eroded, with cloud tops having warmed considerably and the earlier
embedded eye feature having devolved into more of a banding eye
structure. Satellite intensity estimates remain a consensus T4.5/77
kt from TAFB and SAB, and NHC automated Dvorak intensity estimates
have been steady at 80-82 kt. Therefore, the initial intensity has
been increased slightly to 80 kt.

The initial motion estimate remains a steady 295/11 kt. The global
and regional models maintain the deep-layer ridge to the north of
Dora throughout the forecast period, keeping the hurricane on a
west-northwestward track for the next 48-72 hours, followed by a
turn toward the west thereafter until dissipation occurs by 120
hours. The latest NHC model guidance is more tightly packed around
the previous advisory track now that the ECMWF has shifted farther
to the north. As a result, only minor tweaks had to made to the
forecast track, which lies close to the consensus track model TVCE.

Dora has likely peaked in intensity, and is now starting to feel the
negative effects of cooler water and more stable air just to its
north. The hurricane should move over sub-26 C SSTs within the next
6-12 hours, which will induce gradual weakening. However, proximity
to warm, unstable air just to the south of Dora's track, along with
very favorable shear and outflow patterns, should act to temper the
weakening rate somewhat. Dora is expected to become a tropical storm
by 36 hours and degenerate into a remnant low by 72 hours, if not
sooner. The new intensity forecast is similar to the intensity
consensus model IVCN.

Although the center of Dora is forecast to move farther away from
mainland Mexico, the outer bands of the cyclone could bring brief
locally heavy rainfall to portions of coastal southwestern Mexico
into this evening.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/2100Z 17.8N 107.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 27/0600Z 18.4N 108.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 27/1800Z 19.0N 110.4W 65 KT 75 MPH...NEAR SOCORRO ISLAND
36H 28/0600Z 19.5N 112.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 28/1800Z 19.8N 113.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 29/1800Z 20.3N 116.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 30/1800Z 20.5N 119.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 01/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart