EPAC: EUGENE - Post-Tropical

[Yellow Evan]

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 09 JUL 2017 Time : 134538 UTC
Lat : 15:46:46 N Lon : 114:25:19 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.9 / 954.7mb/112.4kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.9 5.9 5.9

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 19 km

Center Temp : +15.9C Cloud Region Temp : -63.4C

Scene Type : EYE

[Ntxw]

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 09 JUL 2017 Time : 134538 UTC
Lat : 15:46:46 N Lon : 114:25:19 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.9 / 954.7mb/112.4kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.9 5.9 5.9

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 19 km

Center Temp : +15.9C Cloud Region Temp : -63.4C

Scene Type : EYE

Eye has warmed a lot. Lets see if it can keep that up for a few hours to maybe get cat 4

[Ntxw]

As dead as the globe has been, this storm is the only show on stage

[cycloneye]

Eugene becomes the first major of 2017.

Hurricane Eugene Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052017
900 AM MDT Sun Jul 09 2017

Eugene's eye is becoming more distinct this morning and cold cloud
tops in the eyewall are wrapping more symmetrically around the
center of the hurricane. Subjective Dvorak classifications
from SAB and TAFB have increased, suggesting around 90 kt at 12Z.
In the last couple of hours, Eugene's convective structure
continues to improve and the objective Advanced Dvorak
Technique currently indicates a substantially higher intensity. A
blend of these estimates gives 100 kt at advisory time and Eugene
is now a major hurricane.

However, Eugene will be moving from warm to very cool SST, so it is
likely that the hurricane will be peaking very soon. Steady to rapid
weakening should ensue on Monday due to the hurricane ingesting dry
and stable air into its inner core. It is anticipated that the
system will lose its deep convection in about three days - if not
sooner - and no longer be considered a tropical cyclone. The
official intensity forecast is slightly lower than indicated in the
previous advisory, and is based upon a blend of the SHIPS/LGEM
statistical models and the COAMPS-TC dynamical guidance.

Eugene has sped up some and is now moving toward the
north-northwest at about 9 kt. The hurricane should continue
moving in the same general direction and speed during the next 36
hours or so, due to the steering influence of a mid-tropospheric
ridge over the southwestern United States. As Eugene weakens, it
should be steered toward the west-northwest at a slower rate of
speed by the lower tropospheric tradewinds. The official track
forecast is based upon the HCCA corrected consensus technique
through three days and upon a blend of the GFS and ECMWF models
thereafter. This track prediction is very similar to that from the
previous advisory, except slightly more to the west at days four
and five.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/1500Z 16.0N 114.6W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 10/0000Z 17.3N 115.6W 105 KT 120 MPH
24H 10/1200Z 18.8N 117.1W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 11/0000Z 20.3N 118.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 11/1200Z 21.6N 119.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 12/1200Z 23.6N 121.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 13/1200Z 25.3N 124.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 14/1200Z 26.5N 127.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Landsea

[Kingarabian]

Cat 4 definitely in the cards.

[1900hurricane]

You can tell it's starting to run a little low on heat content because the microwave brightness temps aren't the most impressive, but not bad regardless

[gfsperpendicular]

Convection looking a bit more ragged:

[Kingarabian]

09/1800 UTC 16.3N 114.9W T5.5/5.0 EUGENE -- East Pacific

5.8 from ADT.

Think the NHC will go with 110kts.

Edit: down to 95kts.

[Kingarabian]

Models keep initializing this at 970ish mb and show it dropping to 965mb in 6-12 hours. So maybe another small window for strengthening.

Edit: Euro and GFS (GFS going as low as 955mb) do not peak this until 24 hours from now. Regardless, 24 more hours as a major hurricane will help the ACE.

[cycloneye]

Hurricane Eugene Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052017
200 PM PDT Sun Jul 09 2017

Eugene continues to have a distinct eye surrounded by a ring of very
deep convection. A blend of both objective and subjective Dvorak
T-numbers from all agencies yield an initial intensity of 100 kt.

The hurricane has the opportunity to strengthen a little more
within the next 12 hours or so, before the circulation of
Eugene begins to move over cooler waters of 24 degrees Celsius or
lower. After that time, weakening should begin, and the cyclone
should become post-tropical in about 3 days. This forecast follows
both statistical models and the consensus.

Eugene is moving toward the northwest or 325 degrees at 10 kt. The
cyclone is embedded within a well established steering flow around
a mid-level ridge over the western United States, and this pattern
will keep Eugene on the same general track for the next 3 days.
Once the cyclone weakens, it could turn more to the west-northwest
with the low-level flow. The NHC forecast follows the consensus
primarily during the next 3 days and does not depart much from the
previous official forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/2100Z 16.7N 115.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 10/0600Z 17.9N 116.4W 105 KT 120 MPH
24H 10/1800Z 19.6N 117.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 11/0600Z 21.0N 119.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 11/1800Z 22.0N 120.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 12/1800Z 24.0N 122.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 13/1800Z 25.5N 124.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 14/1800Z 26.5N 127.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Avila

[SouthDadeFish]

I think it has peaked. It looks like it ran out of juice (TCHP) as we were discussing last night. According to NHC advisories, Eugene intensified by 50 kt in 24 hours, which is quite impressive.

[Kingarabian]

I think it has peaked. It looks like it ran out of juice (TCHP) as we were discussing last night. According to NHC advisories, Eugene intensified by 50 kt in 24 hours, which is quite impressive.

It appears that way. Interesting that the GFS is insisting that it will deepen some more within 24hrs.

[Yellow Evan]

I think it has peaked. It looks like it ran out of juice (TCHP) as we were discussing last night. According to NHC advisories, Eugene intensified by 50 kt in 24 hours, which is quite impressive.

It appears that way. Interesting that the GFS is insisting that it will deepen some more within 24hrs.

GFS tends to peak these systems too late, at least the ones that move NW.

[Sciencerocks]

Moving into cooler waters with less energy to feed the storm and the eye has collapsed. Probably down to around 90 knots now.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif

[Sciencerocks]

Most likely 80-85 knots at advisory time
10/0000 UTC 17.1N 115.4W T4.5/5.0 EUGENE -- East Pacific

[weathaguyry]

Honestly, this just proves to me that conditions in the EPAC are not as favorable as they have been in years prior, instead of having widespread areas of low shear and warm water, you have these pockets that allow for RI for only about 24hrs. or so, then the storm quickly dies off

[Kingarabian]

Honestly, this just proves to me that conditions in the EPAC are not as favorable as they have been in years prior, instead of having widespread areas of low shear and warm water, you have these pockets that allow for RI for only about 24hrs. or so, then the storm quickly dies off

Sure we're not seeing super el nino conditions, but no one called for there to be so. We've had a cat.2 and a cat.3, with more storms in the forecast and it's only July. Storm numbers are above average, just need ACE to catch up.

[weathaguyry]

Honestly, this just proves to me that conditions in the EPAC are not as favorable as they have been in years prior, instead of having widespread areas of low shear and warm water, you have these pockets that allow for RI for only about 24hrs. or so, then the storm quickly dies off

Sure we're not seeing super el nino conditions, but no one called for their to be so. We've had a cat.2 and a cat.3, with more storms in the forecast and it's only July. Storm numbers are above average, just need ACE to catch up.

Wasn't Dora a Cat 1?

[dexterlabio]

Honestly, this just proves to me that conditions in the EPAC are not as favorable as they have been in years prior, instead of having widespread areas of low shear and warm water, you have these pockets that allow for RI for only about 24hrs. or so, then the storm quickly dies off

Sure we're not seeing super el nino conditions, but no one called for their to be so. We've had a cat.2 and a cat.3, with more storms in the forecast and it's only July. Storm numbers are above average, just need ACE to catch up.

Yeah, the fact that this made it up to strong Cat3 status. If it were really unfavorable in the EPAC, Eugene wouldn't even make it to Cat1, more so a named TS. We would have a disorganized TD instead.

[weathaguyry]

Honestly, this just proves to me that conditions in the EPAC are not as favorable as they have been in years prior, instead of having widespread areas of low shear and warm water, you have these pockets that allow for RI for only about 24hrs. or so, then the storm quickly dies off

Sure we're not seeing super el nino conditions, but no one called for their to be so. We've had a cat.2 and a cat.3, with more storms in the forecast and it's only July. Storm numbers are above average, just need ACE to catch up.

Yeah, the fact that this made it up to strong Cat3 status. If it were really unfavorable in the EPAC, Eugene wouldn't even make it to Cat1, more so a named TS. We would have a disorganized TD instead.

I was pointing out that overall there are only pockets of very favorable environment, so the storms ramp up as quick as they die off, we aren't seeing any of the long- tracked hurricanes we have seen in prior years (ex. Blas of last year) that could very well change, but remember 94E that could not get it's act together, also the EPAC average is 15/8/3, so something like that seems more likely this year as opposed to numbers such as 22/13/6 like we saw last year