WPAC: ROKE - Tropical Storm

[euro6208]

JTWC has tagged a new invest. East of Luzon.

98W INVEST 170720 1800 17.8N 126.0E WPAC 15 1010

[euro6208]

NAVGEM, EURO, and GFS shows some weak intensification as this passes north of Luzon.

[euro6208]

TXPQ26 KNES 210342
TCSWNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (98W)

B. 21/0230Z

C. 18.0N

D. 123.9E

E. THREE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...CONVECTION WRAPS OVER .2 ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING A DT
OF 1.5. MET AND PT = 1.0. FT IS BASED ON MET.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...KIBLER

[euro6208]

WTPN21 PGTW 210430
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 17.9N 125.1E TO 20.0N 121.0E
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
210400Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 18.1N
124.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
18.1N 124.7E, APPROXIMATELY 366NM SOUTHEAST OF KAOHSIUNG, TAIWAN.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY
CONSOLIDATING, SMALL (240NM DIAMETER) LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH IMPROVING DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING. A 210135Z METOP-B
89GHZ IMAGE SHOWS CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC.
A 210138Z PARTIAL ASCAT IMAGE REVEALS 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS OVER THE
EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE CIRCULATION. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS AND
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
DIFFLUENT OUTFLOW ALOFT AND LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE HAVING PROBLEMS RESOLVING THE SMALL SYSTEM BUT
INDICATE A GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD TRACK WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO
25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
220430Z.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

TPPN13 PGTW 210312

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 98W (E OF LUZON)

B. 21/0240Z

C. 18.19N

D. 124.46E

E. FIVE/HMWRI8

F. T1.5/1.5 STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .35 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 1.5. MET AND PT NOT AVAILABLE AT THIS TIME.
DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


LOWE

[euro6208]

[SuperMarioBros99thx]

That looks lot like a TS than TD or even Invest! Maybe.

[dexterlabio]

wow JTWC and JMA taking a nap?

[Sciencerocks]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif

Looks better then Don or Bret. Probably close to becoming a tropical storm.

[mrbagyo]

It's obvious that 98W is already a Tropical Storm. We're losing ACE points right now.

[mrbagyo]

PAGASA is also snoring, havent heard about any weather advisory from them regarding this system.

[1900hurricane]

This is now a JMA TD too. Things sure got busy fast.

[euro6208]

JTWC has tagged a new invest. East of Luzon.

98W INVEST 170720 1800 17.8N 126.0E WPAC 15 1010

[Yellow Evan]

TPPN13 PGTW 211528

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 98W (E OF LUZON)

B. 21/1500Z

C. 19.12N

D. 122.89E

E. FIVE/HMWRI8

F. T1.5/1.5 STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. .30 WRAP YIELDS A DT OF 1.5. PT
AND MET ARE CURRENTLY UNAVAILABLE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
21/1023Z 18.82N 123.42E SSMS
21/1025Z 18.72N 123.43E SSMS


MARTINEZ

[Sciencerocks]

WTPN34 PGTW 212100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/210421ZJUL2017//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (TEN) WARNING NR 001
04 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
211800Z --- NEAR 19.6N 122.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 19.6N 122.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 20.6N 120.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 21.4N 117.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 22.2N 115.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 23.7N 114.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
212100Z POSITION NEAR 19.9N 121.7E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (TEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 308 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211800Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 220300Z, 220900Z, 221500Z AND 222100Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 07W (NORU) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08W (EIGHT)
WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL
STORM 09W (KULAP) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW)FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. THIS
CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 210430).//
NNNN

[Sciencerocks]

WDPN34 PGTW 212100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (TEN) WARNING
NR 01//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 10W (TEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 308 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS SLOWLY CONSOLIDATED
AS CENTRAL CONVECTION DEEPENED. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A
DOPPLER COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP FROM PAGASA WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 25 KNOTS IS BASED ON CONGRUENT DVORAK ESTIMATES
FROM PGTW, RJTD, AND KNES AND IS SUPPORTED BY A RECENT ASCAT PASS.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TD 10W IS IN AN AREA OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE (10-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) WITH MODERATE
POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A LOW REFLECTION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THIS IS THE INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE AND SETS THE
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FOR THIS SYSTEM.
B. TD 10W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
THROUGH THE LUZON STRAIT UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR.
AFTER TAU 36, IT IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL JUST EAST OF HONG KONG
AND TURN MORE POLEWARD AS IT ROUNDS THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STR.
INCREASED VWS IN THE LUZON STRAIT WILL DAMPEN ANY INTENSIFICATION,
HOWEVER, BY TAU 36, JUST BEFORE LANDFALL, DECREASED VWS WILL FAVOR A
SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 30 KNOTS. AFTERWARDS,
INTERACTION WITH THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF EAST CHINA WILL CAUSE RAPID
WEAKENING LEADING TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 48. THE LIMITED DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT AS INDICATED BY A WIDE SPREAD IN
THE MODEL ENVELOPE, LENDING LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST.//
NNNN

[doomhaMwx]

Already moving away from the Batanes islands...

This is perhaps a Tropical Storm now or VERY close to one, judging from the satellite and impressive radar presentation...

[RL3AO]

That's quite a radar presentation. Much better than how it looks on satellite.

[mrbagyo]

here's the latest microwave image of 10W

[doomhaMwx]

This is already 10W, please someone update the thread title