ATL: EMILY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[floridasun78]

will this keep moving se or start moving more ene?

[AxaltaRacing24]

This thing appears to be slowly separating from the front.

[NDG]

will this keep moving se or start moving more ene?

Tonight models show this low pressure stalling and or meandering around just west of Tampa Bay then move NE towards the northern FL Peninsula on Tuesday.

[Hurricaneman]

I think we have Emily by morning

[tropicwatch]

Wind has been steadily increasing at the buoy north of the circulation.

Station 42036 (LLNR 855) - WEST TAMPA - 112 NM WNW of Tampa, FL

9:50 pm
ENE ( 66 deg )19.0 kts
9:40 pm
ENE ( 68 deg )17.1 kts
9:30 pm
ENE ( 71 deg )16.3 kts
9:20 pm
ENE ( 76 deg )16.3 kts
9:10 pm
E ( 79 deg )15.0 kts
9:00 pm
E ( 82 deg )14.8 kts

[northjaxpro]

Buoy just south of the circulation is reporting almost 8' waves up from only 3' waves earlier today.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42099

That is quite a rise with the waves. Really makes you wonder if 98L is undergoing a strengthening phase out there at this time.

[NDG]

Buoy just south of the circulation is reporting almost 8' waves up from only 3' waves earlier today.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42099

That is quite a rise with the waves. Really makes you wonder if 98L is undergoing a strengthening phase out there at this time.

And it is unusual for waves to get that big in the GOM with "just weak" systems.

[TheStormExpert]

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/891861497214902272

[northjaxpro]

I think we have Emily by morning

Well, based on buoy reports and radar data, you can certainly make a pitch that this is a TD right now. If 98L stalls and the system continues to shield from the dry air, it would not take much at all for this to become TS .

[Aric Dunn]

Buoy just south of the circulation is reporting almost 8' waves up from only 3' waves earlier today.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42099

That is quite a rise with the waves. Really makes you wonder if 98L is undergoing a strengthening phase out there at this time.

only way is if convection keeps firing. as the shear blows it away more has to continually redevelop.

[floridasun78]

so if any watch issue if look better on mon what area you all see been issue for?

[northjaxpro]

That is true Aric. However, the past several hours we have seen a marked increase in both convection and organization of the structure. I would anticipate that if convection holds through the night, we will see advisories posted on TD at the very minimum tomorrow.

[caneman]

Getting hammered with rain around Clearwater Beach right now.

[Aric Dunn]

:uarrow: That is true Aric. However, the past several hours we have seen a marked I crease in both convection and organization of the structure. I would anticipate that if convection holds through the night, we will see advisories posted on TD at the very minimum tomorrow.

it is very small and very susceptible to shear and also capable of ramping up. but it just has to keep the convection. already the west side has started to collapse it would neeto rebuild that right away.

[Craters]

Has anybody seen recent temperature data? Doesn't this thing have to have a warm core before it can even be considered to be tropical, storm or not?

[Sciencerocks]

I think we have Emily by morning

I think so too.
1. Convection is building over the LLC. This is a sign of convergence at the surface and lows that trend to do this are normally warm core.
2. quickscat and buoy data suggest that it is closed or nearly so.
3. This is supported by the visible/night time visible

[USTropics]

Has anybody seen recent temperature data? Doesn't this thing have to have a warm core before it can even be considered to be tropical, storm or not?

The GFS doesn't do much with it, but it doesn't show a true cold-core system (i.e. subtropical - although a cold-core doesn't definitively define a subtropical storm). More likely, at it separates from the trough, it will have to use energy from latent heat to survive.

[Aric Dunn]

Has anybody seen recent temperature data? Doesn't this thing have to have a warm core before it can even be considered to be tropical, storm or not?

I have only seen the models data. at his point its likely Tropical or on its way.

[TheStormExpert]

More radar/satellite views. West side already looks to be falling apart.

[Hurricaneman]

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/891861497214902272

Curved bands usually indicate a tropical storm but we'll see what the NHC says at 2