ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

[NotSparta]

AL 99 2017092818 01 CARQ 0 233N 796W 20 1012 DB

[wxman57]

From the previous thread about the NW Caribbean, here are my thoughts on this system's chances of producing TS winds:

I think there's a very good chance that there will be easterly winds to 40-45 mph north of the low center (out over the water) on Saturday. The low will be near Cape Canaveral by Saturday morning. This type of system (more subtropical than tropical) will not bring such winds inland, but they could impact the beaches. The strong high pressure over the eastern U.S. to its north will provide the gradient. Little significant wind south of the low. Inland winds maybe 15-25 mph. Strong shear may rip it apart as it crosses Florida on Sunday.

[Nimbus]

I'm not even sure where exactly 99l is?
There are remnants from the cut off trough producing an arc of convection a little further west in the Gulf and still come energy in the western Caribbean that has been migrating WNW.

[AdamFirst]

I'm not even sure where exactly 99l is?

Thanks to our wxman57 for this image.

[wxman57]

I'm not even sure where exactly 99l is?
There are remnants from the cut off trough producing an arc of convection a little further west in the Gulf and still come energy in the western Caribbean that has been migrating WNW.

The primary vorticity is in the red circle, below (an updated image from my earlier post).

[northjaxpro]

From the previous thread about the NW Caribbean, here are my thoughts on this system's chances of producing TS winds:

I think there's a very good chance that there will be easterly winds to 40-45 mph north of the low center (out over the water) on Saturday. The low will be near Cape Canaveral by Saturday morning. This type of system (more subtropical than tropical) will not bring such winds inland, but they could impact the beaches. The strong high pressure over the eastern U.S. to its north will provide the gradient. Little significant wind south of the low. Inland winds maybe 15-25 mph. Strong shear may rip it apart as it crosses Florida on Sunday.

Wxman57, that is pretty good analysis, about what I am anticipating up here in the Northeast Florida coastal region Sunday into Sunday evening. 99L is modeled on the 12Z GFS run today being as a 1007 mb system coming onshore around St. Augustine on Sunday evening.

[JBCycloneStan]

This may not have conditions for really favorable development until it crosses over Florida. All eyes should be on the Gulf when that happens, though.

[psyclone]

Hopefully this will be a harmless system that brings showery, breezy weather and helps break the heat. we're over 100 days of 90 degree temps this season in Tampa (again) this Summer and I'm ready.

[JKingTampa]

Hopefully this will be a harmless system that brings showery, breezy weather and helps break the heat. we're over 100 days of 90 degree temps this season in Tampa (again) this Summer and I'm ready.

I second that, working 6-7 days a week, indoors or out...by the time I'm off work I'm just wanting to be at my AC. This year has been ridiculous.

[LarryWx]

From NWS KCHS:
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS GIVING THIS LOW PRESSURE A MODERATE
CHANCE OF DEVELOPING INTO A SUB-TROPICAL OR EVEN TROPICAL CYCLONE.
HOWEVER, WHETHER THIS SYSTEM DOES SO OR NOT IT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A
STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO
THE NORTH. THUS, WE EXPECT COOLER CONDITIONS TO SETTLE INTO THE AREA
WITH INCREASING NORTHEAST/EAST WINDS.


From NWS KJAX:
THE MAIN THING TO KEEP IN MIND, REGARDLESS OF WHAT WE DESIGNATE
THE POSSIBLE LOW OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND, IS THE IMPACTS WILL BE THE
SAME IF IT HAS A NAME OR NOT. WE ARE CURRENTLY IN A PERIOD OF
ABOVE NORMAL WATER LEVELS IN OUR ESTUARY SYSTEM, INCLUDING THE ST
JOHNS RIVER, AND THE PRIMARY ASTRONOMICAL TIDE EACH DAY IS GOING
TO BE AT OR ABOVE MEAN HIGHER HIGH WATER (MHHW) FOR THE NEXT WEEK
PEAKING ABOUT OCTOBER 10-12TH ALONG THE OCEAN FRONT. WITH AN
ONSHORE FLOW OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS LOOKING FOR
THE PRIMARY HIGH TIDE ON SUNDAY AND POSSIBLY SATURDAY NIGHT AS
WELL TO BE AT 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE MHHW WITH HIGH SURF ON TOP OF
THAT. THOSE LEVELS ARE WITHIN MINOR AND VERY CLOSE TO MODERATE
COASTAL FLOODING DEPENDING UPON THE LOCATION.

[rickybobby]

Hope is a weak ts so I don't have to go to school or work Monday. It is brutal right now in central Florida. 90 right now in port orange.

[CrazyC83]

Hope is a weak ts so I don't have to go to school or work Monday. It is brutal right now in central Florida. 90 right now in port orange.

A weak TS shouldn't keep people at home unless you live on the immediate coast, since it is unlikely 40 mph sustained winds would penetrate far inland in that case.

[jlauderdal]

Hope is a weak ts so I don't have to go to school or work Monday. It is brutal right now in central Florida. 90 right now in port orange.

haha, nice try but this doesnt look like anything close to getting days off...study up

[rickybobby]

Hope is a weak ts so I don't have to go to school or work Monday. It is brutal right now in central Florida. 90 right now in port orange.

A weak TS shouldn't keep people at home unless you live on the immediate coast, since it is unlikely 40 mph sustained winds would penetrate far inland in that case.

In Florida they close bridges once winds hit 39.

[LarryWx]

The trend on the last 3 GFS runs has been toward a slightly weaker low fwiw.

[CrazyC83]

Hope is a weak ts so I don't have to go to school or work Monday. It is brutal right now in central Florida. 90 right now in port orange.

A weak TS shouldn't keep people at home unless you live on the immediate coast, since it is unlikely 40 mph sustained winds would penetrate far inland in that case.

In Florida they close bridges once winds hit 39.

That would be only on the immediate coast though (and I agree with that limit - I use 40 mph during the day and 35 mph at night as the point to shelter in place).

[SuperMarioBros99thx]

If this manage to develop, i had to say that this reminds me of Julia in the previous year...

[joey]

So we looking at maybe 20 moh winds from this 99 ty

[Sciencerocks]

So we looking at maybe 20 moh winds from this 99 ty

If it remains off shore and slides up the coast it could become a tropical storm...Tammy 2005?

[floridasun78]

nhc dont see doing any thing when get close to fl look shear high round fl