ATL: NATE - Post Tropical - Discussion

[chris_fit]

Looks like zero models take this into the FL Peninsula- Good thing fort he folks there.

But looks like as most of the worst weather will be on the right/east side of the storm. If Models trend a little E, could cause some real problems for the FL W Coast.

[chris_fit]

Anyone have the UKMET?

[LarryWx]

Something to point out is that for 2 runs in a row the Euro shows a strengthening hurricane as it approaches the FL Panhandle, must be because of it tapping into the UL trough giving it a better ventilation.
Could we be talking about yet another major hurricane? Time will tell but the way the season has proven to be I would not doubt it

FL, alone, gets hit about once every five years with a major H in Oct when SON Nino 3.4 is between 0 and -1.1. That's about 3 times the climo rate for all years, combined, and way higher than any other ENSO. ALL FL Oct major Hs have hit with SON Nino 3.4 anomalies between -0.03 and -1.10 and the model consensus prediction is for -0.50.

-0.03, -0.30, -0.32, -0.39, -0.40, -0.50, -0.66, -0.80, -1.00. and -1.10

[stormlover2013]

http://meteocentre.com/numerical-weathe ... est&hh=144

[ronjon]

http://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/map-explorer.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=ukmet&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=ukmet&stn2=PNM&hh2=000&fixhh=1&stn2_type=prog&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=144

That's last nights 00z run.

[tolakram]

0z run, not 12z

[stormlover2013]

my bad

[ronjon]

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 114 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+114 : 27.8N 88.9W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 08.10.2017 120 28.6N 87.7W 999 30
0000UTC 09.10.2017 132 30.3N 86.4W 997 33
1200UTC 09.10.2017 144 32.0N 83.5W 999 32

[NDG]

90L's mid level vorticity is getting organized fairly quickly.

[WAcyclone]

Anyone have the UKMET?

12z run:



Source: http://wx.graphics/models/ukmet/ukmet.php

[chris_fit]

Any recon plans yet?

[bella_may]

12Z GFS is takes it into New Orleans. NAVGEM takes it until the MS/AL border. West Florida looks like the outlier so far

[LarryWx]

Based on early maps showing much more development of members,I feel pretty confident that the 12Z EPS will be even more active than the already active 0Z EPS.

[chris_fit]

Based on early maps showing much more development of members,I feel pretty confident that the 12Z EPS will be even more active than the already active 0Z EPS.

When do the 12Z EPS come out?

[LarryWx]

Based on early maps showing much more development of members,I feel pretty confident that the 12Z EPS will be even more active than the already active 0Z EPS.

When do the 12Z EPS come out?

Just started at some pay sites.

[tolakram]

000
NOUS42 KNHC 031701
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0100 PM EDT TUE 03 OCTOBER 2017
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 04/1100Z TO 05/1100Z OCTOBER 2017
TCPOD NUMBER.....17-124 AMENDMENT

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS........(CHANGED)
1. SUSPECT AREA (OFF NICARAGUAN COAST)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 71
A. 04/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01DDA INVEST
C. 04/1400Z
D. 11.5N 82.5W
E. 04/1730Z TO 04/2100Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.

$$
SEF

[supercane4867]

Shear should remain very low until it approaches the gulf coast. This may become a major if it stays off the central American coast.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

[Dean4Storms]

Being just 8 miles or so east of Destin these model runs me not like.

[LarryWx]

Keeping in mind the lower resolution of EPS members: just about all 50 EPS members already have a sub 1004 mb low by hour 60 and most members are either offshore or barely onshore Nicaragua. So, not good if you don't want this to do much.

[chaser1]

Something to point out is that for 2 runs in a row the Euro shows a strengthening hurricane as it approaches the FL Panhandle, must be because of it tapping into the UL trough giving it a better ventilation.
Could we be talking about yet another major hurricane? Time will tell but the way the season has proven to be I would not doubt it

FL, alone, gets hit about once every five years with a major H in Oct when SON Nino 3.4 is between 0 and -1.1. That's about 3 times the climo rate for all years, combined, and way higher than any other ENSO. ALL FL Oct major Hs have hit with SON Nino 3.4 anomalies between -0.03 and -1.10 and the model consensus prediction is for -0.50.

-0.03, -0.30, -0.32, -0.39, -0.40, -0.50, -0.66, -0.80, -1.00. and -1.10

I agree with NDG on this quickly evolving risk. Forgetting the month or the storms origin, I'm getting the sense that this potential storm might end up looking like a somewhat 'poor man's Hurricane Charlie (Aug. 2004) Of course, Charlie made landfall as a strong Cat. 4 into Central W. Coast Florida while intensifying all the while and moving at a pretty quick forward speed. Purely as a guess at this point, I'd guess that potential "Nate" may approach also moving at a brisk forward motion and intensifying right up till landfall in the Panama City/Apalachicola area late Sunday as a Cat. 2 hurricane. Hey, who knows though..... maybe this system gets tangled up over Central America over the next couple of days and gets pulled northward into a more sheared environment and more toward the New Orleans/Mobile area. On the other hand, I think that the slower this system develops and eventually moves northward into the S.E. Gulf, the greater the risk of it becoming stronger and further east in its track. I would imagine that if the timing were moved back by perhaps 24 hours, then a more northeast motion at that time might imply a greater threat towards Tallahassee to Cedar Key. I think strength and potential landfall will have everything to do with the timing of its development and near term forward motion. That's obvious with nearly most hurricanes, but I think the implications are that much more wide ranging here.