ATL: Invest 92L - Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
drezee
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3642
Joined: Mon Jun 09, 2003 12:49 pm
Location: FL

ATL: Invest 92L - Discussion

#1 Postby drezee » Fri Oct 13, 2017 7:00 am

Classified this AM:

Invest 92L
As of 06:00 UTC Oct 13, 2017:

Location: 17.4°N 55.3°W
Maximum Winds: 25 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 1007 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1010 mb
Radius of Circulation: 120 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 50 NM


Should head ots..
0 likes   

Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21228
Age: 41
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:

Re: ATL: Invest 92L - Discussion

#2 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Oct 13, 2017 8:56 am

Not before the vort/wave axis moves through the NE islands. 00z Euro mildely develops it just north of PR before recurving. needs to be watched..


that and also there is still a vort/lobe/circ more south in the elongated wave axis. the shear is much less there.
0 likes   
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask :)

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...

User avatar
Gustywind
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 12334
Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE

Re: ATL: Invest 92L - Discussion

#3 Postby Gustywind » Fri Oct 13, 2017 9:17 am

Aric Dunn wrote:Not before the vort/wave axis moves through the NE islands. 00z Euro mildely develops it just north of PR before recurving. needs to be watched..


that and also there is still a vort/lobe/circ more south in the elongated wave axis. the shear is much less there.

OK thanks ARIC. So what are you latest thougts for us in the Leewards? We should wait for what especially? A strong twave or not, or more than a TW? With what effects? Thanks.
0 likes   

Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21228
Age: 41
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:

Re: ATL: Invest 92L - Discussion

#4 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Oct 13, 2017 9:19 am

Gustywind wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:Not before the vort/wave axis moves through the NE islands. 00z Euro mildely develops it just north of PR before recurving. needs to be watched..


that and also there is still a vort/lobe/circ more south in the elongated wave axis. the shear is much less there.

OK thanks ARIC. So what are you latest thougts for us in the Leewards? We should wait for what especially? A strong twave or not, or more than a TW? With what effects? Thanks.


rain and some breezy conditions. :)
0 likes   
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask :)

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...

User avatar
Gustywind
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 12334
Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE

Re: ATL: Invest 92L - Discussion

#5 Postby Gustywind » Fri Oct 13, 2017 9:32 am

Aric Dunn wrote:
Gustywind wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:Not before the vort/wave axis moves through the NE islands. 00z Euro mildely develops it just north of PR before recurving. needs to be watched..


that and also there is still a vort/lobe/circ more south in the elongated wave axis. the shear is much less there.

OK thanks ARIC. So what are you latest thougts for us in the Leewards? We should wait for what especially? A strong twave or not, or more than a TW? With what effects? Thanks.


rain and some breezy conditions. :)

ok thanks a lot! :wink: So not much action from this one?!
0 likes   

Sanibel
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10348
Joined: Mon Aug 30, 2004 11:06 pm
Location: Offshore SW Florida

Re: ATL: Invest 92L - Discussion

#6 Postby Sanibel » Fri Oct 13, 2017 10:46 am

Naked swirl headed for the islands...Shows what difference a month can make...


Here's me in Irma's eyewall:


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c5bdBR78YY8
3 likes   

User avatar
SEASON_CANCELED
Category 3
Category 3
Posts: 887
Joined: Mon Jul 06, 2009 5:17 am
Location: 8 Bit Charlie Sheen

Re: ATL: Invest 92L - Discussion

#7 Postby SEASON_CANCELED » Fri Oct 13, 2017 3:19 pm

think season may be toast but lets see.
0 likes   
i am a big stupid ugly moron with an ugly face and a big butt and my butt stinks and i like to kiss my own butt

User avatar
msbee
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3010
Joined: Wed Jun 11, 2003 10:11 am
Location: St. Maarten

Re: ATL: Invest 92L - Discussion

#8 Postby msbee » Fri Oct 13, 2017 4:35 pm

Gustywind wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:
Gustywind wrote:OK thanks ARIC. So what are you latest thougts for us in the Leewards? We should wait for what especially? A strong twave or not, or more than a TW? With what effects? Thanks.


rain and some breezy conditions. :)

ok thanks a lot! :wink: So not much action from this one?!


I hope not much action from this one. We still have people living with no roofs over their heads.
2 likes   
Too many hurricanes to remember

Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21228
Age: 41
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:

Re: ATL: Invest 92L - Discussion

#9 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Oct 13, 2017 4:57 pm

msbee wrote:
Gustywind wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:
rain and some breezy conditions. :)

ok thanks a lot! :wink: So not much action from this one?!


I hope not much action from this one. We still have people living with no roofs over their heads.


well its not going to be a hurricane or anything close.. but already producing TS winds on the east side. and depending on track would bring that over the islands. like it will head over the islands tomorrow. IF convection build a little closer to the center then a TD or TS is possible tomorrow too.
0 likes   
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask :)

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...

Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21228
Age: 41
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:

Re: ATL: Invest 92L - Discussion

#10 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Oct 13, 2017 6:14 pm

convection beginning to build around the center. shear is still moderate.. but that not stopped many many systems before... it is also farther south a more west than the models are showing so slightly less shear at the moment.
0 likes   
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask :)

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...

User avatar
msbee
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3010
Joined: Wed Jun 11, 2003 10:11 am
Location: St. Maarten

Re: ATL: Invest 92L - Discussion

#11 Postby msbee » Fri Oct 13, 2017 7:07 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:
msbee wrote:
Gustywind wrote:ok thanks a lot! :wink: So not much action from this one?!


I hope not much action from this one. We still have people living with no roofs over their heads.


well its not going to be a hurricane or anything close.. but already producing TS winds on the east side. and depending on track would bring that over the islands. like it will head over the islands tomorrow. IF convection build a little closer to the center then a TD or TS is possible tomorrow too.

Hoping it will go North of St Maarten. even tropical storm force winds would send tarps flying and expose many of our residents to the elements once again.
We are keeping watch. Thanks for updating, Aric!
2 likes   
Too many hurricanes to remember

User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 22473
Age: 66
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

Re: ATL: Invest 92L - Discussion

#12 Postby wxman57 » Sat Oct 14, 2017 8:23 am

It's just a sheared mess of a tropical wave this morning. About zero chance of any development prior to passing the NE Caribbean. The only development potential appears to be next Tuesday as it merges with a strong cold front well north of the Caribbean. It would be a frontal low at that point. The threat to the NE Caribbean islands is for increasing rain chances over the next couple of days.
4 likes   

User avatar
msbee
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3010
Joined: Wed Jun 11, 2003 10:11 am
Location: St. Maarten

Re: ATL: Invest 92L - Discussion

#13 Postby msbee » Sat Oct 14, 2017 9:11 am

wxman57 wrote:It's just a sheared mess of a tropical wave this morning. About zero chance of any development prior to passing the NE Caribbean. The only development potential appears to be next Tuesday as it merges with a strong cold front well north of the Caribbean. It would be a frontal low at that point. The threat to the NE Caribbean islands is for increasing rain chances over the next couple of days.


Thank you wxman57. I thought it looked pretty raggedy this morning.
0 likes   
Too many hurricanes to remember

Sciencerocks
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 7281
Age: 38
Joined: Thu Jul 06, 2017 1:51 am

Re: ATL: Invest 92L - Discussion

#14 Postby Sciencerocks » Sat Oct 14, 2017 4:59 pm

Maintains a LLC as it tracks north of the islands. Gfs hints at development after 60 hours as it is heading out to sea so I'd watch it.
0 likes   

User avatar
abajan
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4175
Joined: Sun Sep 07, 2003 5:10 am
Location: Barbados

Re: ATL: Invest 92L - Discussion

#15 Postby abajan » Sat Oct 14, 2017 5:23 pm

Blowup of convection over Barbuda for the last couple hours.
2 likes   

User avatar
msbee
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3010
Joined: Wed Jun 11, 2003 10:11 am
Location: St. Maarten

Re: ATL: Invest 92L - Discussion

#16 Postby msbee » Sat Oct 14, 2017 6:46 pm

abajan wrote:Blowup of convection over Barbuda for the last couple hours.


SXM is currently experiencing a lot of wind. thunder and lightning too, but not much rain. People feel nervous, considering they just went through Irma.
Some tarps flying off homes I hear.
0 likes   
Too many hurricanes to remember

User avatar
abajan
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4175
Joined: Sun Sep 07, 2003 5:10 am
Location: Barbados

Re: ATL: Invest 92L - Discussion

#17 Postby abajan » Sat Oct 14, 2017 7:04 pm

msbee wrote:
abajan wrote:Blowup of convection over Barbuda for the last couple hours.


SXM is currently experiencing a lot of wind. thunder and lightning too, but not much rain. People feel nervous, considering they just went through Irma.
Some tarps flying off homes I hear.

Wow. Sorry to hear that. :cry:

We got lots of rain and a bit of thunder this morning, in association with a combination of 92L and the ITCZ, which caused flooding in many parts of the island. We've been under a flood warning since 6 AM. Expecting more tonight and into tomorrow.
0 likes   

User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 22473
Age: 66
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

Re: ATL: Invest 92L - Discussion

#18 Postby wxman57 » Sat Oct 14, 2017 7:09 pm

Still no circulation. It's a sheared tropical wave. The only chance of development comes Tuesday when it merges with the cold front and becomes a frontal low.
0 likes   

User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 22473
Age: 66
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

Re: ATL: Invest 92L - Discussion

#19 Postby wxman57 » Sun Oct 15, 2017 9:36 am

Not much to it today. Wave looks a bit weaker than yesterday. Surface pressures relatively high in the region. Producing some thunderstorms over the NE Caribbean. Still looks like it merges with the cold front before developing.

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
msbee
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3010
Joined: Wed Jun 11, 2003 10:11 am
Location: St. Maarten

Re: ATL: Invest 92L - Discussion

#20 Postby msbee » Sun Oct 15, 2017 10:04 am

abajan wrote:
msbee wrote:
abajan wrote:Blowup of convection over Barbuda for the last couple hours.


SXM is currently experiencing a lot of wind. thunder and lightning too, but not much rain. People feel nervous, considering they just went through Irma.
Some tarps flying off homes I hear.

Wow. Sorry to hear that. :cry:

We got lots of rain and a bit of thunder this morning, in association with a combination of 92L and the ITCZ, which caused flooding in many parts of the island. We've been under a flood warning since 6 AM. Expecting more tonight and into tomorrow.


Stay dry, Abajan. Light rain here today, just enough to make those living under tarps miserable.
0 likes   
Too many hurricanes to remember


Return to “2017”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 19 guests