AJC3 wrote:An interesting aspect of the potential TC-genesis from 93L is that there is a significant northerly post-frontal wind surge now pushing across the Yucatan and NW Caribbean that will be entrained into its embryonic circulation. This is likely to be a "double-edged sword", so to speak. On the one hand these types of surges have been known to boost cyclonic vorticity, helping the system spin up (e.g. Typhoon Vamei, and a number of " tehuantepecer" gap wind events on the EPAC side). On the other hand, is the fact that this surge is carrying a modified post-frontal air mass southward, which isn't particularly helpful form a thermodynamic standpoint. We'll see how this plays out.
I'm thinking we'll see a TC eventually come out of this, however, whatever does form, I don't see it getting terribly strong, and more than likely weakening very quickly once it gets north of the latitude of Cuba.
Didn’t we see one of these wind surges help Otto spin up rapidly last year after showing little organization for days?
