ATL: PHILIPPE - Remnants - Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
WeatherEmperor
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4806
Age: 40
Joined: Thu Sep 04, 2003 2:54 pm
Location: South Florida

ATL: PHILIPPE - Remnants - Discussion

#1 Postby WeatherEmperor » Mon Oct 23, 2017 7:49 pm

Discussion for 93L goes here


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
0 likes   

tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 19138
Age: 60
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re: ATL: Invest 93L - Discussion

#2 Postby tolakram » Mon Oct 23, 2017 7:50 pm

TT Thread here: viewtopic.php?f=31&t=119341

AL, 93, 2017102006, , BEST, 0, 113N, 725W, 20, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS039, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 039,
AL, 93, 2017102012, , BEST, 0, 113N, 735W, 20, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS039, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 039,
AL, 93, 2017102018, , BEST, 0, 113N, 745W, 20, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS039, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 039,
AL, 93, 2017102100, , BEST, 0, 113N, 755W, 20, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS039, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 039,
AL, 93, 2017102106, , BEST, 0, 113N, 765W, 20, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS039, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 039,
AL, 93, 2017102112, , BEST, 0, 113N, 775W, 20, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS039, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 039,
AL, 93, 2017102118, , BEST, 0, 113N, 785W, 20, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS039, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 039,
AL, 93, 2017102200, , BEST, 0, 113N, 795W, 20, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS039, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 039,
AL, 93, 2017102206, , BEST, 0, 113N, 805W, 20, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS039, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 039,
AL, 93, 2017102212, , BEST, 0, 113N, 815W, 25, 1008, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS039, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 039,
AL, 93, 2017102218, , BEST, 0, 116N, 822W, 25, 1008, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS039, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 039,
AL, 93, 2017102300, , BEST, 0, 120N, 826W, 25, 1008, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS039, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 039,
AL, 93, 2017102306, , BEST, 0, 125N, 827W, 25, 1007, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS039, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 039,
AL, 93, 2017102312, , BEST, 0, 130N, 828W, 25, 1007, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS039, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 039,
AL, 93, 2017102318, , BEST, 0, 135N, 829W, 30, 1009, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 180, 110, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS039, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 039,
AL, 93, 2017102400, , BEST, 0, 140N, 830W, 30, 1006, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 180, 30, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 039, SPAWNINVEST, al782017 to al932017,
0 likes   
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
weathaguyry
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1272
Age: 20
Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2016 5:16 am
Location: Long Island, NY

Re: ATL: Invest 93L - Discussion

#3 Postby weathaguyry » Mon Oct 23, 2017 7:56 pm

10/50

1. An elongated area of low pressure has formed near the northeastern
coast of Nicaragua. This broad disturbance is producing widespread
cloudiness and scattered thunderstorms over much of the northwestern
and southwestern Caribbean Sea, and the adjacent coastal areas of
northeastern Nicaragua and eastern Honduras. Further development,
if any, should be slow to occur for the next couple of days due to
interaction with the high terrain of Central America. Thereafter,
environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for some
development to occur over the northwestern Caribbean Sea while the
system moves slowly northward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
1 likes   
My posts are only my opinions and NOT official forecasts. For official forecasts, consult the National Hurricane Center or the National Weather Service.

Irene 11', Sandy 12', Fay 20’, Isaias 20’, Elsa 21’, Henri 21’, Ida 21’

User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23499
Age: 46
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

Re: ATL: Invest 93L - Discussion

#4 Postby gatorcane » Mon Oct 23, 2017 8:01 pm

Convection on the increase:

Image
1 likes   

User avatar
weathaguyry
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1272
Age: 20
Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2016 5:16 am
Location: Long Island, NY

Re: ATL: Invest 93L - Discussion

#5 Postby weathaguyry » Mon Oct 23, 2017 8:05 pm

:uarrow: Wow! Even some grey spots in there!
0 likes   
My posts are only my opinions and NOT official forecasts. For official forecasts, consult the National Hurricane Center or the National Weather Service.

Irene 11', Sandy 12', Fay 20’, Isaias 20’, Elsa 21’, Henri 21’, Ida 21’

User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23499
Age: 46
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

Re: ATL: Invest 93L - Discussion

#6 Postby gatorcane » Mon Oct 23, 2017 8:11 pm

0 likes   

User avatar
Ptarmigan
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5272
Joined: Wed Aug 16, 2006 9:06 pm

Re: ATL: Invest 93L - Discussion

#7 Postby Ptarmigan » Mon Oct 23, 2017 9:36 pm

It is over an area of very warm water. That area has been largely untouched. Hurricane Nate went over the Western Caribbean, but did not intensify quickly due to its fast movement.

Some of the most intense hurricanes in October have formed in that area like Janet (1955), Hattie (1961), Joan (1988), Mitch (1998), Lenny (1999), and Wilma (2005).

Not saying it will happen.
0 likes   

User avatar
Kosmo Kitty
Tropical Wave
Tropical Wave
Posts: 9
Joined: Wed Sep 20, 2017 4:32 pm
Location: South Florida

Re: ATL: Invest 93L - Discussion

#8 Postby Kosmo Kitty » Mon Oct 23, 2017 9:50 pm

If it happens, what kind of timeline are we looking at?
0 likes   

User avatar
TheStormExpert
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8487
Age: 30
Joined: Wed Feb 16, 2011 5:38 pm
Location: Palm Beach Gardens, FL

Re: ATL: Invest 93L - Discussion

#9 Postby TheStormExpert » Mon Oct 23, 2017 9:57 pm

Kosmo Kitty wrote:If it happens, what kind of timeline are we looking at?

2 weeks?

Certainly not 2 weeks. More like in 5-6 days this will be in the vicinity of the Bahamas and Florida.
1 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by storm2k.org.

User avatar
TheStormExpert
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8487
Age: 30
Joined: Wed Feb 16, 2011 5:38 pm
Location: Palm Beach Gardens, FL

Re: ATL: Invest 93L - Discussion

#10 Postby TheStormExpert » Mon Oct 23, 2017 9:59 pm

Ptarmigan wrote:It is over an area of very warm water. That area has been largely untouched. Hurricane Nate went over the Western Caribbean, but did not intensify quickly due to its fast movement.

Some of the most intense hurricanes in October have formed in that area like Janet (1955), Hattie (1961), Joan (1988), Mitch (1998), Lenny (1999), and Wilma (2005).

Not saying it will happen.

Fortunately this one looks like it’ll be moving fast a lot like Nate. I currently see nothing other than those warm waters to suggest a hurricane coming out of this within the next 5 days at the moment.
1 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by storm2k.org.

User avatar
Nimbus
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4928
Joined: Mon Jul 19, 2004 10:54 am

Re: ATL: Invest 93L - Discussion

#11 Postby Nimbus » Mon Oct 23, 2017 10:00 pm

Well if this develops the next trough is almost sure to dig.
0 likes   

User avatar
Kosmo Kitty
Tropical Wave
Tropical Wave
Posts: 9
Joined: Wed Sep 20, 2017 4:32 pm
Location: South Florida

Re: ATL: Invest 93L - Discussion

#12 Postby Kosmo Kitty » Mon Oct 23, 2017 10:02 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:
Kosmo Kitty wrote:If it happens, what kind of timeline are we looking at?

2 weeks?

Certainly not 2 weeks. More like in 5-6 days this will be in the vicinity of the Bahamas and Florida.


Thank you.
Last edited by Kosmo Kitty on Tue Oct 24, 2017 12:07 am, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   

Frank2
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4061
Joined: Mon Jul 25, 2005 12:47 pm

Re: ATL: Invest 93L - Discussion

#13 Postby Frank2 » Mon Oct 23, 2017 10:07 pm

It should be well past 2 weeks from now. Just monitor the NHC page for updates at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov

Or of course media too, as long as they are not scaring viewers with bylines such as "trouble in the tropics" etc.
1 likes   

joey
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 133
Joined: Sun Aug 14, 2016 9:11 pm

Re: ATL: Invest 93L - Discussion

#14 Postby joey » Mon Oct 23, 2017 10:18 pm

this one may skip the td stats and go right to a ts imo :uarrow:
0 likes   

HurricaneRyan
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 712
Age: 30
Joined: Sun Dec 05, 2010 3:05 pm

Re: ATL: Invest 93L - Discussion

#15 Postby HurricaneRyan » Mon Oct 23, 2017 10:49 pm

If this moves too fast, does that mean all of this warm water ended up not producing a major October monster?
0 likes   
Kay '22 Hilary '23

User avatar
wxmann_91
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8013
Age: 32
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2005 2:49 pm
Location: Southern California
Contact:

Re: ATL: Invest 93L - Discussion

#16 Postby wxmann_91 » Mon Oct 23, 2017 11:01 pm

HurricaneRyan wrote:If this moves too fast, does that mean all of this warm water ended up not producing a major October monster?

Nope. And that should be a lesson on how warm water is overrated with regards to major hurricane potential.
3 likes   

Sanibel
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10348
Joined: Mon Aug 30, 2004 11:06 pm
Location: Offshore SW Florida

Re: ATL: Invest 93L - Discussion

#17 Postby Sanibel » Mon Oct 23, 2017 11:17 pm

It felt unusually tropical here tonight and sure enough...
0 likes   

psyclone
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4487
Joined: Wed Aug 24, 2005 9:04 pm
Location: palm harbor fl

Re: ATL: Invest 93L - Discussion

#18 Postby psyclone » Mon Oct 23, 2017 11:46 pm

Sanibel wrote:It felt unusually tropical here tonight and sure enough...


it won't for long. the tropical feel is moisture pooling ahead of a front that's going to leave us feeling decidedly non tropical for the first time in months.
1 likes   

BZSTORM
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 331
Age: 59
Joined: Tue Jul 15, 2008 5:47 pm
Location: Placencia, Belize

Re: ATL: Invest 93L - Discussion

#19 Postby BZSTORM » Tue Oct 24, 2017 12:52 am

Well this finally numbered invest of disturbed weather of Nicuagua/Honduras coast brought allot of rain this morning to Belize. With ground saturation at max, the rain came down hard and caused various degrees of localized flooding countrywide. A friends weather station recorded on the peninsula where I live 2.75" rain in one & half hours, most of that was from 11.30am - 12.30pm 2.12". All flood zones in South are also on flood watch tonight. Macal river residents in Cayo were put on flash flood watch for tonight along river banks as river was rising fast at 2pm, many other rivers in the South Belize had risen, receded and now are on rise again, all the mountain rain making its way downstream. . And Bz Met forecasts another day of rain again tomorrow. The frogs are happy as I'm sure the mosquitoes are too with the abundant flooded areas.
1 likes   

jlauderdal
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6771
Joined: Wed May 19, 2004 5:46 am
Location: NE Fort Lauderdale
Contact:

Re: ATL: Invest 93L - Discussion

#20 Postby jlauderdal » Tue Oct 24, 2017 6:54 am

sheared out slop, enjoy the fall weather florida
1 likes   


Return to “2017”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 30 guests