WPAC: TEMBIN - Post-Tropical

[wxman57]

I see nothing that qualifies 97W as a depression. JMA has very loose criteria for calling a disturbance a depression. If it was really a depression then they would issue advisories.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

GFS back at it again.... 903 mb

[1900hurricane]

I no longer even really see a coherent disturbance along the monsoon trough with the latest ASCAT data.

[1900hurricane]

What is currently designated as 97W is no longer a threat to develop. The area to watch is on the eastern end of the monsoon trough, back at very low latitudes near 150ºE. I'm not sure if they'll relocate 97W back that way or designate a new invest (98W).

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

HWRF Data :Invest WP97

models hinting something will develop.Guess we will know what after 72hrs as per ukmet.

[cycloneye]

Models are now in consensus for a hit to Mindanao but differ on intensity.

[euro6208]

Remains MEDIUM.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 4.4N 146.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.1N 141.5E, APPROXIMATELY
406 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PALAU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 170014Z AMSU METOP-B IMAGE DEPICT AN ELONGATED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION. THE RECENT ASCAT
PASS SHOWS A DISORGANIZED TROUGH LOCATED IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
PERIPHERY PRODUCING 25-30 KNOT WINDS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
CONVECTION OF 97W. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS DEPICTS LOW TO MODERATE (10-
15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE OUTFLOW. 97W IS LOCATED
IN AN AREA OF FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30-31 CELSIUS)
THAT WILL AID FUTURE DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE MIXED SHOWING
VARYING DEGREES OF CONSOLIDATION OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS, AND NO
CONSENSUS ON THE TRACK MOTION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.

[euro6208]

Lots of uncertainty...

The models continue to struggle with Invest 97W. Invest 97W remains
a weak system to the south of Chuuk and Pohnpei. Latest ASCAT and
SCATSAT data show that 97W is an elongated system with 2 weak
centers, one near 4N149E, the other near 7N142E. Latest model
guidance now shows the system drifting westward, with slow
development over the next few days, before moving out to the
northwest over Palau. The previous model run showed no development
at all, with the system dissipating within the next couple days.
Based on model run to run inconsistencies, confidence remains very
low on this system.

[cycloneye]

What is currently designated as 97W is no longer a threat to develop. The area to watch is on the eastern end of the monsoon trough, back at very low latitudes near 150ºE. I'm not sure if they'll relocate 97W back that way or designate a new invest (98W).

At 12z they relocated it back in longitud from 142E to 146.3E.

As of 12:00 UTC Dec 17, 2017:

Location: 7.0°N 146.3°E
Maximum Winds: 20 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1007 mb

[euro6208]

I see nothing that qualifies 97W as a depression. JMA has very loose criteria for calling a disturbance a depression. If it was really a depression then they would issue advisories.

They upgrade anything for some reason. Just a TD on a map and a simple Best Track like text.

Being the RSMC is really a disappointment. It's like they don't care until one reaches TS and even that, they don't give any reasoning. It's like following a ghost.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

I see nothing that qualifies 97W as a depression. JMA has very loose criteria for calling a disturbance a depression. If it was really a depression then they would issue advisories.

They upgrade anything for some reason. Just a TD on a map and a simple Best Track like text.

Being the RSMC is really a disappointment. It's like they don't care until one reaches TS and even that, they don't give any reasoning. It's like following a ghost.

This is not a depression, based on satelite and wind estimates posted earlier.

....but.....

To be fair, the JMA was the one who flew planes into Lan. The JTWC is prone to mistakes, it isn't only the IMD and JMA who commit mistakes. The JMA is run by actual meteorologists, not to downplay the military running the JTWC.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Bullseye, Cebu!

[cycloneye]

12z GFS is less strong at landfall but gains steam at SCS.

[cycloneye]

12z ECMWF has nothing in 120 hours.

[euro6208]

[1900hurricane]

I'm not really expecting development anymore. I haven't done that blog post I thought I was going to do largely because of this. American guidance has been so bad recently that I'm pretty much throwing it out at this point. Much of the other guidance hasn't fared much better to be honest though.

 https://twitter.com/1900hurricane/status/942067433283686401

[doomhaMwx]

Heh, I find the latest(00Z) GFS output very interesting, track-wise.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

The ECMWF and GFS have a pretty strong Sulu Sea system.... Its track and intensity are subject to change though

[cycloneye]

JMA downgrades from TD to a Low Pressure.

LOW PRESSURE AREA 1006 HPA NEAR 05N 145E ALMOST STATIONARY.

[euro6208]

Another disappointment in the models...