ATL: FLORENCE - Models

[Hurricaneman]

looking at the position of the ridge at 120 hours and the streamlines. it should begin to turn more nw unless the ridge builds west.

Exactly as at 144 this is heading WNW

[Aric Dunn]

wnw through 144 hrs with ridge building west.. SC NC landfall ?

[northjaxpro]

The UKMET for me is a pretty solid model and a very good alternative to the GFS and EURO. It has performed quite well in recent years, especially with Matthew in 2016 and Irma just last year.. I definitely would keep paying close attention to what the UKMET is detailing for good advice for those out there model watching.

[Brent]

I don't see how its going OTS at 144, looks headed for the Carolinas a lot like last night?

[Cpv17]

I don’t see this turning ots on this run whatsoever. Might go pretty far inland.

[TheDreamTraveler]

[Aric Dunn]

yeppers. NC landfall. a shift south and west. still a lot od ridging.

[Bocadude85]

Maybe the UKMET is not as crazy afterall, the Euro definitely trended further south in the short term.

[Hammy]

Run looks very similar to Isabel (though probably stronger)

[Hurricaneman]

Is it possible the models have been underestimating the ridge and a UKMET situation could happen

[AxaltaRacing24]

Maybe the UKMET is not as crazy afterall, the Euro definitely trended further south in the short term.

Although I think it is too far south, it definitely sensed out the change before any mother model did. The part I find interesting is seeing the landfall location slowly shift south.

[AutoPenalti]

Is it possible the models have been underestimating the ridge and a UKMET situation could happen

Too soon to find out.

[Brent]

the UKMET being consistent definitely makes you wonder and now to see the euro closer to it... definitely can't rule it out

[caneseddy]

yeppers. NC landfall. a shift south and west. still a lot od ridging.

I know I’m probably overreacting but I’m starting to get vibes based on these latest model runs that this may turn out to be an Irma redux with the models shifting south and west..remember the models had Irma hitting mid-Atlantic/NE, then the Carolinas, then Georgia and then Florida

I hope I’m wrong

[northjaxpro]

Is it possible the models have been underestimating the ridge and a UKMET situation could happen

Yes. Remember the GFS has a tendency for underestimating or not handling the strength of ridges.

[Aric Dunn]

now the wait for the ensembles.. the 12z which was farther north still had a few members into south florida.. I wonder some of these members might be lol

[AutoPenalti]

I’m going to wait till Saturday to find out if UKMET verifies based on the post I made earlier.

[Bocadude85]

Is it possible the models have been underestimating the ridge and a UKMET situation could happen

If the UKMET is still showing a similar solution tomorrow during its 12Z run then one would have to really start paying attention to it, the ridge on the 0z Euro isn’t all that different from the UKMET..just a bit farther northeast.

[northjaxpro]

Also, we are having a pretty strong positive NAO right now, so High Pressure is anomalously stonger than usual over the Western Atlantic basin. This is why I feel the UKMET may be right and that the other models may fall in line with it as time progresses.

[Cpv17]

yeppers. NC landfall. a shift south and west. still a lot od ridging.

I know I’m probably overreacting but I’m starting to get vibes based on these latest model runs that this may turn out to be an Irma redux with the models shifting south and west..remember the models had Irma hitting mid-Atlantic/NE, then the Carolinas, then Georgia and then Florida

I hope I’m wrong

Actually there have been many cases where models have shown hits on the Carolinas and points north of there from this far out only to wind up much further south. Irma is one of many examples of that happening.