ATL: FLORENCE - Models

[hurricaneCW]

yeppers. NC landfall. a shift south and west. still a lot od ridging.

I know I’m probably overreacting but I’m starting to get vibes based on these latest model runs that this may turn out to be an Irma redux with the models shifting south and west..remember the models had Irma hitting mid-Atlantic/NE, then the Carolinas, then Georgia and then Florida

I hope I’m wrong

Actually there have been many cases where models have shown hits on the Carolinas and points north of there from this far out only to wind up much further south. Irma is one of many examples of that happening.

Florence is much further north than Irma was at this time.

[Cpv17]

I know I’m probably overreacting but I’m starting to get vibes based on these latest model runs that this may turn out to be an Irma redux with the models shifting south and west..remember the models had Irma hitting mid-Atlantic/NE, then the Carolinas, then Georgia and then Florida

I hope I’m wrong

Actually there have been many cases where models have shown hits on the Carolinas and points north of there from this far out only to wind up much further south. Irma is one of many examples of that happening.

Florence is much further north than Irma was at this time.

True, but like I said in an earlier post, models tend to have an east bias past 5 days and Florida and Georgia both need to have their guard up. They’re not out of the clear.

[LarryWx]

Fwiw, the UKMET (0Z) is still initializing too far SW with 22.7 N, 47.1 W vs the actual at 0Z of 23.1 N, 46.9 W. By the time Flo got to 47.1 W, it was already up near 23.3 N or 0.6 or 42 miles N of where the UKMET had her when it was at 47.1.
Maybe it will end up not mattering much but I'd still keep this in mind since it has by far the most southerly track.

[Aric Dunn]

Fwiw, the UKMET (0Z) is still initializing too far SW with 22.7 N, 47.1 W vs the actual at 0Z of 23.1 N, 46.9 W. By the time Flo got to 47.1 W, it was already up near 23.3 N or 0.6 or 42 miles N of where the UKMET had her when it was at 47.1

That is not enough to make a difference.

[LarryWx]

Fwiw, the UKMET (0Z) is still initializing too far SW with 22.7 N, 47.1 W vs the actual at 0Z of 23.1 N, 46.9 W. By the time Flo got to 47.1 W, it was already up near 23.3 N or 0.6 or 42 miles N of where the UKMET had her when it was at 47.1

That is not enough to make a difference.

I realize it may not be enough since it appears to about to turn. I even edited my post while you were replying to me to reflect that. But with its track so far south vs the others, I can't help but wonder if this 42 miles will have a domino effect down the road with its verifications.

[AutoPenalti]

Fwiw, the UKMET (0Z) is still initializing too far SW with 22.7 N, 47.1 W vs the actual at 0Z of 23.1 N, 46.9 W. By the time Flo got to 47.1 W, it was already up near 23.3 N or 0.6 or 42 miles N of where the UKMET had her when it was at 47.1.
Maybe it will end up not mattering much but I'd still keep this in mind since it has by far the most southerly track.

I’m not sure it will matter but considering every little change can affect the outcome of the models, maybe it will correct itself and finally cave in.

[Aric Dunn]

one thing that may happen is the shear pulling the center more north as it tries to stay stacked. that might make the UKMET adjust if that happens

[LarryWx]

Uh oh, the 0Z EPS is coming in somewhat like the beast of 2 runs ago. More details soon. Or maybe someone who can do it will post the map.

[AutoPenalti]

Uh oh, the 0Z EPS is coming in somewhat like the beast of 2 runs ago. More details soon. Or maybe someone who can do it will post the map.

Link?

[Aric Dunn]

Uh oh, the 0Z EPS is coming in somewhat like the beast of 2 runs ago. More details soon. Or maybe someone who can do it will post the map.

nothing i have is updating. sometime really late.

[LarryWx]

Uh oh, the 0Z EPS is coming in somewhat like the beast of 2 runs ago. More details soon. Or maybe someone who can do it will post the map.

Link?

I don't have a publically available link.

[AutoPenalti]

Uh oh, the 0Z EPS is coming in somewhat like the beast of 2 runs ago. More details soon. Or maybe someone who can do it will post the map.

Link?

I don't have a publically available link.

weather.us still has the 12Z up.

[Brent]

[Kingarabian]

00z UK-ENS:

[AutoPenalti]

Okay, welp, might as well put that the whole east coast is in play all the way from NY to FL...

[Brent]

Okay, welp, might as well put that the whole east coast is in play all the way from NY to FL...

I like the one headed for Texas

[Aric Dunn]

so a whole bunch have shifted back south west clustered around the carolinas..

[Brent]

yeah hardly any of the 12z hit at all... this is more like the 0z last night

[Cpv17]

Okay, welp, might as well put that the whole east coast is in play all the way from NY to FL...

I like the one headed for Texas

Look at the spread at hour 240 literally 2500 miles apart or more

[Aric Dunn]

by the way.. if the shear does not let up a little we might have a exposed circ by the morning.. then we really need to look at the UKMET and all the southern members ..