ATL: MICHAEL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[GBPackMan]

Even the always too cold NAM (18z) does not show any 50s-60s, east of the Mississippi or south of TN.

https://i.imgur.com/kvtdA1S.png

Low pressure cannot push on a front to allow that much heat that far inland. the eastern edge of the jet stream is already pushing over the central plains as shown by the cooler air over KS, OK, and TX panhandle, and by tomorrow should be over MO and IL with the front running to the NE into New England.

[txwatcher91]

The Jet stream remains anchored to the southwestern US with the eastern edge pushing further SE across the central plains which is what guides the turn to the NE with this storm into Panama City or further east. This is also the cold front that has snow being dropped into the Rockies, so it has the colder outflow off the SE turn of the jet stream that many models are not accounting for.

https://imgur.com/7KqJT4E

Using the 18z models to say "look at prior model run with new info" instead of setting up a new run. Now they're pushing the narrative that there will be RI now into Cat 3 with 110+ mph at landfall, but they are not taking into account the cooler night time temps (50s-60s) across the southeastern US getting sucked in, nor the colder air coming off the jetstream. I am hoping the 0z or at least the 6z runs will take more of this into account.

Doesn't hurt to be prepared in case these models pan out, but NHC and TWC quickly jumped on the Cat 3 expectation without the extended data being included, which I do not agree with.

Dude there is NO temps that low, last night mins were pretty much exclusively above 70f across the whole of the south, inde d in places it was more like 75. There is no 50s within a 1000 miles of Michael at the moment.

Low 70s in my stretch of the western FL panhandle the last few nights, colder inland.

Low 70s is not 50s and 60s like you claimed. There’s nothing wrong with disagreeing with models and providing fact based reasoning but your claim of 50s and 60s for lows across the SE US is not true.

[caneman]

Am I smoking crack or is that front already off Texas? It looks like the wind flow there is now SW to NE in looking at water vapor.
Has the NOAA jet been out to sample upper air environment, if not, when? Thanks

The front is in Texas, but up in the northern Panhandle. Does this mean you are smoking crack?

Lol. So the sw to ne steering I see in the western gulf will not be steering this?

[chaser1]

Easy to do when it is just a gaggle of thunderstorms, but once it actually forms into something is when the models start to do their job properly. This is why some work great for hurricanes but can't predict a likely area of non-tropical thunderstorm formation. I still see way too much cooler air making its way in as it gets closer to the panhandle to have this intensify much beyond a weak Cat 2 24-36h out.

So where is this cool air coming from? The SE is still locked into a summer pattern at mid week

https://i.imgur.com/kgC5SmI.png

The Jet stream remains anchored to the southwestern US with the eastern edge pushing further SE across the central plains which is what guides the turn to the NE with this storm into Panama City or further east. This is also the cold front that has snow being dropped into the Rockies, so it has the colder outflow off the SE turn of the jet stream that many models are not accounting for.

Part of the problem I see is they're using the 18z models to say "look at prior model run with new info" so they see current model run + recent intensification, instead of setting up a new run. Now they're pushing the narrative that there will be RI now into Cat 3 with 110+ mph at landfall, but they are not taking into account the cooler night time temps (50s-60s) across the southeastern US getting sucked in, nor the colder air coming off the jetstream. I am hoping the 0z or at least the 6z runs will take more of this into account.

Doesn't hurt to be prepared in case these models pan out, but NHC and TWC quickly jumped on the Cat 3 expectation without the extended data being included, which I do not agree with.

The temperature of 200 mb upper level flow does not work it's way to the surface ahead of frontal boundary, nor is this an occluded front bleeding cool dry air in the wake of Michael..... wait, Ninel?! He's back!!

[txwatcher91]

Even the always too cold NAM (18z) does not show any 50s-60s, east of the Mississippi or south of TN.

https://i.imgur.com/kvtdA1S.png

Low pressure cannot push on a front to allow that much heat that far inland. the eastern edge of the jet stream is already pushing over the central plains as shown by the cooler air over KS, OK, and TX panhandle, and by tomorrow should be over MO and IL with the front running to the NE into New England.

With all due respect, I’m not sure you understand the dynamics in play behind the map xironman posted. The reason temps are so warm across all of the Southeastern US is because of the ridging in place and humid airmass. Cold air will NOT be a factor that weakens Michael, if anything does it’ll be shear and most models have this strengthening up until it’s over land. It doesn’t mean they are right but I can assure you temps in the 50s and 60s are nowhere near Michael and won’t be at the time of landfall either.

[chaser1]

Am I smoking crack or is that front already off Texas? It looks like the wind flow there is now SW to NE in looking at water vapor.
Has the NOAA jet been out to sample upper air environment, if not, when? Thanks

The front is in Texas, but up in the northern Panhandle. Does this mean you are smoking crack?

Lol. So the sw to ne steering I see in the western gulf will not be steering this?

Crack induced steering!

[meriland29]

With all due respect GBMan, it does seem as though you are putting all your faith into very specific aspects of very changeable models and continuously arguing against the plethora of responses and models indicating very strongly, otherwise. I understand that you do not want anything major to happen, as do I, but what you want should not correlate with what is actually happening and is predicted to happen.

[MississippiWx]

Michael is beginning to look very ominous. I believe we are about to enter a period of rapid intensification. The core is looking much better.

[Monsoonjr99]

Even the always too cold NAM (18z) does not show any 50s-60s, east of the Mississippi or south of TN.

https://i.imgur.com/kvtdA1S.png

Low pressure cannot push on a front to allow that much heat that far inland. the eastern edge of the jet stream is already pushing over the central plains as shown by the cooler air over KS, OK, and TX panhandle, and by tomorrow should be over MO and IL with the front running to the NE into New England.

With all due respect, I’m not sure you understand the dynamics in play behind the map xironman posted. The reason temps are so warm across all of the Southeastern US is because of the ridging in place and humid airmass. Cold air will NOT be a factor that weakens Michael, if anything does it’ll be shear and most models have this strengthening up until it’s over land. It doesn’t mean they are right but I can assure you temps in the 50s and 60s are nowhere near Michael and won’t be at the time of landfall either.

Yes. Climo is a useful tool, but sometimes anomalous conditions warrant disregarding it.

[Hurricane Andrew]

Low pressure cannot push on a front to allow that much heat that far inland. the eastern edge of the jet stream is already pushing over the central plains as shown by the cooler air over KS, OK, and TX panhandle, and by tomorrow should be over MO and IL with the front running to the NE into New England.

With all due respect, I’m not sure you understand the dynamics in play behind the map xironman posted. The reason temps are so warm across all of the Southeastern US is because of the ridging in place and humid airmass. Cold air will NOT be a factor that weakens Michael, if anything does it’ll be shear and most models have this strengthening up until it’s over land. It doesn’t mean they are right but I can assure you temps in the 50s and 60s are nowhere near Michael and won’t be at the time of landfall either.

Yes. Climo is a useful tool, but sometimes anomalous conditions warrant disregarding it.

Climo can be very...overrated in TC prediction. Irma, Florence, the list goes on. Storms can and will buck the trend, and relying on climo to prevent a storm from hitting someone is a foolish strategy for them.

Prepare, anticipate, be proactive. Hope for the best. Prep for the opposite. Simple as that.

[GBPackMan]

Dude there is NO temps that low, last night mins were pretty much exclusively above 70f across the whole of the south, inde d in places it was more like 75. There is no 50s within a 1000 miles of Michael at the moment.

Low 70s in my stretch of the western FL panhandle the last few nights, colder inland.

Low 70s is not 50s and 60s like you claimed. There’s nothing wrong with disagreeing with models and providing fact based reasoning but your claim of 50s and 60s for lows across the SE US is not true.

Last night Oct 7-8 lows in the 60s across much of the southeast including in the 50s in the TN Appalachians not shown on this map, not all areas report this info. Oh you see that low of 65 in Crestview in the western FL panhandle (which is 15 minutes north of me)? Oh nope no 50s or 60s here.

With the front pushing further east across TX and central to eastern plains, along with the cold air in the 40s and 50s getting drawn into the storm means weakening, not strengthening as it gets closer to landfall. Few models take this cold air into account as it is not tropical in nature so it ignores that data.

[Kaseyweber]

Does anyone think that Michael has a chance to push more east? The models went from big bend landfall to more of the FL panhandle. Like wind-shield wiper effect. Wondering how it will affect Lake City area.

[kevin mathis]

Just to relieve a little stress for the folks up at FSU,

You had to deal with a Hurricane down in Miami this past Sat, unfortunately you will be dealing with another one later this week.

Burn

They may end up both being disasters!!! Not sure which one will be worse
Go Gators!...Good Luck Up there you guys.

[dhweather]

The 12Z HWRF has Michael landfalling with pressure of 942mb and max winds of 110kt (125MPH) , so if I were in the path of Michael, I'd plan for those conditions. The National Hurricane Center has the area under a hurricane warning and expects Michael to be a major hurricane at landfall. Hope for the best, but prepare for the worst.

[tolakram]

Last night Oct 7-8 lows in the 60s across much of the southeast including in the 50s in the TN Appalachians not shown on this map, not all areas report this info. Oh you see that low of 65 in Crestview in the western FL panhandle (which is 15 minutes north of me)? Oh nope no 50s or 60s here.

https://imgur.com/nrfhsHJ

With the front pushing further east across TX and central to eastern plains, along with the cold air in the 40s and 50s getting drawn into the storm means weakening, not strengthening as it gets closer to landfall. Few models take this cold air into account as it is not tropical in nature so it ignores that data.

No, I don't see any 50's in the western panhandle, I see mid and upper 60s and I'm betting dewpoints nearly that high as well. 50's show up in green, easy to tell apart from the 60's.

Models do not ignore data, and much of what you are saying does not make sense to me and apparently quite a few others here. You've said your piece, let's see what happens.

[Aric Dunn]

[Jag95]

Michael is beginning to look very ominous. I believe we are about to enter a period of rapid intensification. The core is looking much better.

I agree. It's looking a little more symmetrical on visible and any shear looks like it might have relaxed. NHC had the RI index at 50-60% earlier today so it wouldn't surprise me.

[SunnyThoughts]

Michael is beginning to look very ominous. I believe we are about to enter a period of rapid intensification. The core is looking much better.

I agree. It's looking a little more symmetrical on visible and any shear looks like it might have relaxed. NHC had the RI index at 50-60% earlier today so it wouldn't surprise me.

Luckily just in time we have 2 missions headed into the storm within the next couple hours...NOaa as well as AF

[dhweather]

Does anyone think that Michael has a chance to push more east? The models went from big bend landfall to more of the FL panhandle. Like wind-shield wiper effect. Wondering how it will affect Lake City area.

The models will continue to move a bit East/West, but as the NHC notes always, a hurricane is not a point, a large area will be impacted by the storm. That said, you are far enough inland and Eastward of the projected path, I do not believe it will be too bad for you. But as always, listen to local officials and the NWS/NHC for official guidance.

[KWT]

https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/tc18/ATL/14L.MICHAEL/gmi/89h/2degreeticks/20181008.2136.gpm.x.89h.14LMICHAEL.70kts-978mb-217N-851W.036pc.jpg

Oh dear, just as its starting to pull away from Cuba it starts to wrap that eyewall the who.e way round, may well be the next leg of strengthening about to start...