ATL: FLORENCE - Models

[tolakram]

0Z run, another US hit, further south than the 12Z, further north than the previous 0Z.

[northjaxpro]

by the way.. if the shear does not let up a little we might have a exposed circ by the morning.. then we really need to look at the UKMET and all the southern members ..

I was just getting ready to state that Florence is beginning to look more ragged early this morning. Definitely in a weakened state as shear has really impacted her the past several hours

[Blown Away]

06z GFS... Slightly NE through 102 hrs...

[plasticup]

GFS just has it in for Bermuda. Another hit as a major on the 00z run. 06z should be ready shortly.

[Kazmit]

GFS just has it in for Bermuda. Another hit as a major on the 00z run. 06z should be ready shortly.

Looks like another Bermuda hit for 06z as well.

[Nimbus]

We are down to the 5 day forecast for Bermuda and there is a ridge which will track Florence further west so they need to be prepared regardless. The timing of that first and hopefully only weakness will be critical.

[GCANE]

Synoptic Forecast appears to go from inhibitive to conducive once Florence hits a large pocket of increasing OHC water in about 100hrs.

Before the pocket:
Ahead of it an ULL to its west with relatively large 355K PV streamer keeping the vort column squeezed and non-aligned.

After the pocket:
A relatively close anticyclone appears to the west.
Florence is forecast to track into it which should expand the vort column and help to vertically align it.
Upper Levels forecast to be in the clear, all the way to the coast, at that time.

[GCANE]

Also, Euro is showing a strong mid-level low to Florence's east at +216 hrs.
GFS is not.
If this pans out, it will be ideally position to create a strong outflow channel for Florence.

[BobHarlem]

Hmm the 6z gfs nails Bermuda and Newfoundland, but no US hit (stalls forever se of cape code). Oh hi 92L as a landfalling hurricane in Tampa and then the OBX.

Looking at the model spread for Florence is crazy, Miami to Newfoundland to out to sea.

[tolakram]

Hmm the 6z gfs nails Bermuda and Newfoundland, but no US hit (stalls forever se of cape code). Oh hi 92L as a landfalling hurricane in Tampa and then the OBX.

Looking at the model spread for Florence is crazy, Miami to Newfoundland to out to sea.

120 hours is the high limit for any decent accuracy right now, IMO. Even that is stretching it a bit.

[Ken711]

Still don't understand why the UKMet continues to be so much farther south than the other models on a west track.

[NDG]

All I know is that the UKMET has been running left biased the last couple of days for today's forecasted position, could be because it was showing it to be weaker than what it is currently is.

[ronjon]

Think the UKMET is definitely showing more shear and much weaker system for the western track - its still a possibility as strength forecasting is still a guessing game at times. We also have a number of ECM and CMC ensemble members that take the more southern western route. Time will tell. Watch and wait mode the next few days till models come into better focus.

[GCANE]

 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1037649572808536064

[xtyphooncyclonex]

All I know is that the UKMET has been running left biased the last couple of days for today's forecasted position, could be because it was showing it to be weaker than what it is currently is.

It has been left biased, but that could change. Florence is rapidly weakening, and it is certainly nowhere near 100 kts. Probably down to 75-80 kts if not lower. That turn could occur sooner than what the GFS depicts.

[Highteeld]

Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.38 ARC in LT GRAY

Might not even be a hurricane

[chris_fit]

Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.38 ARC in LT GRAY

Might not even be a hurricane

If it is, that is one ugly hurricane. Beauty fades quickly - in this case <24 hours

[plasticup]

Bermuda catches the eye in this one. HWRF and HMON are almost identical. Other models go a little north or south. Surprisingly good consensus up to this point, and the recurve vs CONUS split happens after.

[SFLcane]

For those interested in seeing a few images from the very persistent UKMET here is last nights 00z run.

[plasticup]

Why is the UKMET so different from the other models? And it diverges really soon. The differences start at 36-48 hours or even less.