ATL: FLORENCE - Models

[TheStormExpert]

12z Model Track Guidance. What a hot mess!

[SootyTern]

UKMET needs to stop with that track. it's got my street address plugged into it or something

[tomatkins]

It might not. The Euro and GFS both see a pretty sharp right hook - its just a matter of whether it will be off of NC or on NC. The last couple of data points of the UKMET could be pointing in that direction too.They certainly seem to be pointing to a recurve before Florida.

[Mouton]

It has been left biased, but that could change. Florence is rapidly weakening, and it is certainly nowhere near 100 kts. Probably down to 75-80 kts if not lower. That turn could occur sooner than what the GFS depicts.

I thought that higher intensity storms have a tendency to go pole wards. Others not so much. Looking at the 500mb all I see is high ridging above this storm. While the UKMET may be overdoing the southern trajectory, I don't see this doing an abrupt turn to the NNW or more anytime soon. I know that flies in the face of the GPS which has a OTS patern now but I just do not see it. Fortunately this storm is not huge, at this point. Are smaller storms more rifle shot oriented? I don't know but that ridge looks like a barrier to me regardless of storm size.

Meanwhile the ULL to its southwest could be a player. Unfortunately we don't have the detail we used to get from the Sat Feeds. Why they stopped them is aggravating because the current snap shots do not provide much ebb and flow detail about the surrounding atmosphere.

[edu2703]

 https://twitter.com/JackSillin/status/1037697861025234945

[tolakram]

Meanwhile the ULL to its southwest could be a player. Unfortunately we don't have the detail we used to get from the Sat Feeds. Why they stopped them is aggravating because the current snap shots do not provide much ebb and flow detail about the surrounding atmosphere.

What are you looking for? GOES16 imagery is much improved but hosted in different locations. Let me know if I misunderstand.

Here's the COD (College of DuPage) GOES16 viewer set to Upper level water vapor.

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=global-atlantic-08-48-0-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

[gatorcane]

When you loop the ECMWF 500MB heights, you can see that based on timing and where Florence is located when the huge ridge builds, could mean even a further south and west path as the ridge expands south and west into the Bahamas. So the UKMET, while an outlier, may not be completely out to lunch. Let's not forget these models can keep shifting and shifting as we have seen with storms like Irma and Matthew even in the short to medium range.

Also note ECMWF has a temporary WSW movement now that hasn't shown up before:

[chris_fit]

When you loop the ECMWF 500MB heights, you can see that based on timing and where Florence is located when the huge ridge builds, could mean even a further south and west path as the ridge expands south and west into the Bahamas. So the UKMET, while an outlier, may not be completely out to lunch. Let's not forget these models can keep shifting and shifting as we have seen with storms like Irma and Matthew even in the short to medium range.

Also note ECMWF has a temporary WSW movement now that hasn't shown up before:

Looks like that ridge just dives SW to FL - Should keep FL safe for now, according to that run

[tomatkins]

Meanwhile the ULL to its southwest could be a player. Unfortunately we don't have the detail we used to get from the Sat Feeds. Why they stopped them is aggravating because the current snap shots do not provide much ebb and flow detail about the surrounding atmosphere.

What are you looking for? GOES16 imagery is much improved but hosted in different locations. Let me know if I misunderstand.

Here's the COD (College of DuPage) GOES16 viewer set to Upper level water vapor.

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=global-atlantic-08-48-0-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

NOAA also hosts a GOES-16 (and soon 17) viewer at https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/index.php

[gatorcane]

When you loop the ECMWF 500MB heights, you can see that based on timing and where Florence is located when the huge ridge builds, could mean even a further south and west path as the ridge expands south and west into the Bahamas. So the UKMET, while an outlier, may not be completely out to lunch. Let's not forget these models can keep shifting and shifting as we have seen with storms like Irma and Matthew even in the short to medium range.

Also note ECMWF has a temporary WSW movement now that hasn't shown up before:

https://s8.postimg.cc/ggyqkms5x/ecmwf_z ... h0-240.gif

Looks like that ridge just dives SW to FL - Should keep FL safe for now, according to that run

But if Florence gets under the ridge a bit before it really builds instead of on the SW side of it after, the ridge could push her even further south and west as the ridge expands south and west.

[WeatherEmperor]

Looks like florence is already way north of where the UKMeT said it would be. Perhaps this solution will not verify??




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[edu2703]

From NHC Forecast Discussion

Florence's forward motion has slowed just a little to 9 kt toward the northwest (315 degrees). A mid-level ridge is building to the north, which is likely to cause the hurricane to turn westward by 36 hours, with that motion continuing through about day 3. After that time, there is still considerable uncertainty in the evolution of the steering pattern over the western Atlantic, especially on day 4. On one hand, the GFS and HWRF dig a strong shortwave trough over Atlantic Canada by Monday, creating a break in the ridge which would allow Florence to turn northwestward. On the other hand, the ECMWF and UKMET both have weaker troughs and maintain stronger ridging over the northwestern Atlantic, allowing Florence to maintain a westward or west-northwestward course. All the models show a mid-level high over the western Atlantic by Tuesday. Due to typical biases among these models in the part of the Atlantic, we prefer to be between the GFS and ECMWF solutions at this time, which places the official NHC track forecast close to the TVCN multi-modelconsensus and just north of HCCA.

[plasticup]

[im g]https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT06/refresh/AL062018_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind+png/144100_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png[/img]

Another small south and west shift in the NHC track.

[ava_ati]

Looks like florence is already way north of where the UKMeT said it would be. Perhaps this solution will not verify??

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I am watching 25N, UKMET says it pretty much rides that west right now it is about 24.5N and looking at microwave it sure looks like it is going WNW in the last few frames.

[otowntiger]

Looks like florence is already way north of where the UKMeT said it would be. Perhaps this solution will not verify??




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Agreed. I think UKMET is looking unrealistic to me at this point. But I suppose anything can happen but I would think if it were to have any real validity you'd think at least some other models starting to move in its direction. That graphic makes it look like a lone wolf by far.

[OuterBanker]

I was feeling a little better this am as seeing the latest GFS models taking Flo offshore.
Then I viewed the Euro.
Then I watched JB's video (public version).
https://www.weatherbell.com/premium/
Now I'm concerned again.

[Blown Away]

Looks like florence is already way north of where the UKMeT said it would be. Perhaps this solution will not verify??




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Agreed. I think UKMET is looking unrealistic to me at this point. But I suppose anything can happen but I would think if it were to have any real validity you'd think at least some other models starting to move in its direction. That graphic makes it look like a lone wolf by far.

Wow, look at the sharp NNW turn by TVCN, that gives some CONUS hope.

[Kazmit]

Looks like florence is already way north of where the UKMeT said it would be. Perhaps this solution will not verify??




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Agreed. I think UKMET is looking unrealistic to me at this point. But I suppose anything can happen but I would think if it were to have any real validity you'd think at least some other models starting to move in its direction. That graphic makes it look like a lone wolf by far.

Wow, look at the sharp NNW turn by TVCN, that gives some CONUS hope.

That turn will be very important in determining the fate of flo. If it goes northwest, Bermuda could be under the gun. If it continues west or west-northwest, that would be a greater threat to the US.

[Bocadude85]

The 0Z UKMET is most likely to far south atleast initially, what will be interesting to see is how much latitude Florence loses once or if the wsw motion starts as shown by the UKMET, Euro and to a lesser extent the GFS. Another factor is going to be how much Florence weakens in the next 24 hours, if she continues to weaken we may start to see some more of the models coming in-line with the UKMET.

[ronjon]

00z UKMET:

https://weathermodels.com/index.php?r=site%2Fpreview&mode=animator&set=UKMET%2017%20km&area=Tropical%20Atlantic&param=MSLP&offset=4

oops - this was Sept 4th version.