ATL: MICHAEL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Michele B]

Cooler air near a tropical cyclone does NOT necessarily indicate they can be wrapped into the circulation and weakens the storm. Wilma was swept by a late October front with temperatures in the 40s behind yet it still intensified into a major hurricane while approaching Florida. Tropical Meteorology does not work as simple as someone here keep saying, end of the story.

The only "good" thing about Wilma was that we were doing clean-up in nice, Fall-like weather, instead of OPPRESSIVE SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY!!!

Windows open at night it was nice and COOOOL!

[SFLcane]

Walton County is mandatory evacuation zones A,B and C, I live in a zone B should i try to ride it out?

Absolutely not! If you have been told to evacuate by local officials you must go. Material things can be replaced but not life.

[tolakram]

Walton County is mandatory evacuation zones A,B and C, I live in a zone B should i try to ride it out?

You should first follow the instructions of your local authorities who know the area best. You are in a mandatory evac zone, so go for crying out loud.

We are not here to tell you to stay or go, but when in doubt go and if mandatory go. You only die once.

[jlauderdal]

Walton County is mandatory evacuation zones A,B and C, I live in a zone B should i try to ride it out?

Absolutely not, this is a major surge event

[Michele B]

Walton County is mandatory evacuation zones A,B and C, I live in a zone B should i try to ride it out?

You'd probably better look up MANDATORY in the dictionary first.

[kthmcc7319]

Walton County is mandatory evacuation zones A,B and C, I live in a zone B should i try to ride it out?

We’re in zone C, far west edge of the county - Choctaw Beach - trying to make the same call. All of our neighbors, who have lived here for decades, are staying.

[jlauderdal]

Walton County is mandatory evacuation zones A,B and C, I live in a zone B should i try to ride it out?

You ever been in a surge situation? If not, do a you tube search and that will be enough to answer your question.

[Cuda]

Walton County is mandatory evacuation zones A,B and C, I live in a zone B should i try to ride it out?

Did you just say your zone has mandatory evacuations and then follow up by asking if you should stay?

[seahawkjd]

Walton County is mandatory evacuation zones A,B and C, I live in a zone B should i try to ride it out?

Absolutely not! If you have been told to evacuate by local officials you must go. Material things can be replaced but not life.

Leave. As I said earlier having just been through Florence literally EVERYONE I spoke to that stayed through it (we were all mandatory evacuation to the point that the county shelter was 150 miles inland) said they never would again. It could come in weaker than they think but Florence did that and it still will be months or years before we are back to normal (several counties have been out of school now going on a month due to damage).

Plus, you potentially put other's lives in danger by staying. If you (heaven forbid) end up in a life threatening flooding situation, you put the rescuers lives in danger being there (if they are even allowed to try).

[Steve]

Not storm chasing but I’m in Defuniak for the night. I just waited in a gas line. Been a while since I’ve seen one of those. I will be back on the road to New Orleans tomorrow. Stopped by Navarre Beach on the way in, and there were winds in the 20s and high surf along with red flags.

Lots of trees particularly in Tally so trees will come down and take out power lines and probably kill some people. Y’all be careful.

[SunnyThoughts]

Walton County is mandatory evacuation zones A,B and C, I live in a zone B should i try to ride it out?

Did you just say your zone has mandatory evacuations and then follow up by asking if you should stay?

If you decide to stay, and the sort of surge they say could happen does indeed happen, don't think you can call 911 and they will come save you. They aren't going to put themselves in danger. Your choice of course, but I sure wouldn't stay.

[meriland29]

Walton County is mandatory evacuation zones A,B and C, I live in a zone B should i try to ride it out?

We’re in zone C, far west edge of the county - Choctaw Beach - trying to make the same call. All of our neighbors, who have lived here for decades, are staying. I think it just depends on where you are and what risks you are willing to take. If you have doubts then it’s best to evacuate.

I would't base my answers on what others around me are doing. Yesterday morning, Michael wasnt even supposed to be a big threat, now, today, it is a imminent landfall and a peak intensity of 120 mph...who knows what tomorrow will bring. I personally would leave, sooner than later. The time frame between now and landfall is slim and if this is anticipated to be any worse, you can bet those roads will be full-stop backed up for hours and hours.

[meriland29]

Also you really don't want to be wading in at least waist deep nasty standing water.

[NDG]

A couple of hours ago in Key West during one those squalls rotating around, surprised that Key West was not placed under tropical storm warning.

Conditions at: KEYW observed 08 October 2018 20:24 UTC
Temperature: 26.1°C (79°F)
Dewpoint: 22.8°C (73°F) [RH = 82%]
Pressure (altimeter): 29.83 inches Hg (1010.2 mb)
Winds: from the SE (130 degrees) at 45 MPH (39 knots; 20.3 m/s)
gusting to 56 MPH (49 knots; 25.5 m/s)
Visibility: 1.00 miles (1.61 km)
Ceiling: 3000 feet AGL
Clouds: few clouds at 2200 feet AGL
broken clouds at 3000 feet AGL
broken clouds at 7500 feet AGL
Present Weather: RA (rain)
KEYW 082024Z 13039G49KT 1SM RA FEW022 BKN030 BKN075 26/23 A2983 RMK AO2 PK WND 12049/2024 RAB17 P0000 T02610228

[NDG]

83 knot flight level winds so far on the northern eyewall.

83 knots
(~ 95.5 mph)

[vbhoutex]

You can literally see Michael say "Pardon me Cuba, just gonna...sneak ...past you here..ahh thanks Cuba"

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimtc/2018_14L/web/last24hrs.gif

That is very telling!! I will be VERY INTERESTED IN THE NEXT RUNS OF THE MODELS AND RETURNS FROM THE PLANES FLYING MICHAEL! Obvious eyewall building as soon as passing the West tip of Cuba!

[meriland29]

83 knot flight level winds so far on the northern eyewall.

83 knots
(~ 95.5 mph)

What was it in that LOC. last recon pass? Out of curiosity...

[NDG]

He's definitely strengthening. 86 knot flight level winds.

231230 2300N 08509W 6951 03005 9832 +112 //// 118083 086 069 015 01
231300 2258N 08509W 6937 03014 9819 +117 //// 121080 082 070 017 05
231330 2257N 08509W 6951 02992 9811 +118 //// 122077 078 072 019 05
231400 2255N 08508W 6950 02992 9803 +118 //// 121069 073 072 015 01
231430 2253N 08508W 6951 02979 9791 +124 //// 116058 063 074 009 01
231500 2251N 08508W 6948 02984 9763 +144 +129 113051 052 074 007 00
231530 2249N 08509W 6950 02974 9751 +148 +127 110047 050 067 006 00
231600 2247N 08509W 6954 02961 9742 +149 +128 108042 043 056 003 00
231630 2245N 08510W 6953 02956 9731 +156 +116 106037 037 047 002 00
231700 2243N 08511W 6956 02948 9732 +152 +113 103032 033 036 001 03
231730 2241N 08511W 6957 02942 9719 +160 +107 103028 029 033 001 00
231800 2239N 08512W 6956 02938 9709 +165 +098 109022 024 030 000 00
231830 2237N 08512W 6955 02939 9701 +171 +094 110017 019 028 001 03
231900 2235N 08513W 6954 02936 9692 +179 +088 119011 013 025 000 00
231930 2233N 08514W 6953 02936 9682 +186 +095 270002 008 020 001 00
232000 2231N 08514W 6955 02937 9678 +193 +089 289013 015 021 000 00
232030 2229N 08514W 6956 02938 9683 +192 +075 291023 025 021 000 00

[Aric Dunn]

967.8 mb

winds probably bumped up to 90 mph

[ronjon]

Northern eyewall showing up on long range radar.

https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/current-weather-conditions