ATL: FLORENCE - Models

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Blown Away
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#1081 Postby Blown Away » Thu Sep 06, 2018 10:12 am

Image

Seems NHC not buying into GFS. The 06z GFS basically ran over Bermuda and the NHC track is a solid 150+ south of Bermuda. Just an observation.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#1082 Postby Mouton » Thu Sep 06, 2018 10:33 am

Here's the COD (College of DuPage) GOES16 viewer set to Upper level water vapor.

Thanks, a great help.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#1083 Postby Bocadude85 » Thu Sep 06, 2018 10:45 am

Am I crazy or is the GFS showing a WSW motion between 24 and 42 hours?
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#1084 Postby plasticup » Thu Sep 06, 2018 10:48 am

Bocadude85 wrote:Am I crazy or is the GFS showing a WSW motion between 24 and 42 hours?

Between 24 and 42 hours I measure the center as gaining 0.3 degrees of latitude while moving a full 2.0 degrees west. That is a little west of WNW. No southerly component that I can measure.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#1085 Postby gatorcane » Thu Sep 06, 2018 10:56 am

But the GFS is already a little south of the 06Z run out through 60 hours.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#1086 Postby Bocadude85 » Thu Sep 06, 2018 10:58 am

plasticup wrote:
Bocadude85 wrote:Am I crazy or is the GFS showing a WSW motion between 24 and 42 hours?

Between 24 and 42 hours I measure the center as gaining 0.3 degrees of latitude while moving a full 2.0 degrees west. That is a little west of WNW. No southerly component that I can measure.


Yea I think I was looking at the maps a little to closely
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#1087 Postby Siker » Thu Sep 06, 2018 11:09 am

12z UKMET shifts away from its Bahamas / Florida solution:

HURRICANE FLORENCE ANALYSED POSITION : 24.1N 48.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL062018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 06.09.2018 0 24.1N 48.6W 1001 57
0000UTC 07.09.2018 12 25.0N 49.9W 998 62
1200UTC 07.09.2018 24 25.2N 51.5W 994 64
0000UTC 08.09.2018 36 25.0N 52.7W 989 68
1200UTC 08.09.2018 48 24.8N 54.1W 984 61
0000UTC 09.09.2018 60 24.7N 55.1W 981 56
1200UTC 09.09.2018 72 24.8N 56.5W 980 55
0000UTC 10.09.2018 84 25.2N 58.0W 975 63
1200UTC 10.09.2018 96 26.0N 60.4W 973 63
0000UTC 11.09.2018 108 27.2N 63.5W 971 69
1200UTC 11.09.2018 120 28.3N 67.7W 965 71
0000UTC 12.09.2018 132 29.2N 71.3W 960 71
1200UTC 12.09.2018 144 30.6N 74.3W 957 81
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#1088 Postby chris_fit » Thu Sep 06, 2018 11:10 am

Weakness has filled in - Ridge all around to the N

Image
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#1089 Postby AutoPenalti » Thu Sep 06, 2018 11:10 am

Siker wrote:12z UKMET shifts away from its Bahamas / Florida solution:

HURRICANE FLORENCE ANALYSED POSITION : 24.1N 48.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL062018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 06.09.2018 0 24.1N 48.6W 1001 57
0000UTC 07.09.2018 12 25.0N 49.9W 998 62
1200UTC 07.09.2018 24 25.2N 51.5W 994 64
0000UTC 08.09.2018 36 25.0N 52.7W 989 68
1200UTC 08.09.2018 48 24.8N 54.1W 984 61
0000UTC 09.09.2018 60 24.7N 55.1W 981 56
1200UTC 09.09.2018 72 24.8N 56.5W 980 55
0000UTC 10.09.2018 84 25.2N 58.0W 975 63
1200UTC 10.09.2018 96 26.0N 60.4W 973 63
0000UTC 11.09.2018 108 27.2N 63.5W 971 69
1200UTC 11.09.2018 120 28.3N 67.7W 965 71
0000UTC 12.09.2018 132 29.2N 71.3W 960 71
1200UTC 12.09.2018 144 30.6N 74.3W 957 81


There it is, finally caving in.
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#1090 Postby Hurricane Andrew » Thu Sep 06, 2018 11:11 am

Going to be way west this run...stronger ridging cutting off the escape at HR 114, also a bit stronger at this point than 06z.

Just another line to the spaghetti, as it were.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#1091 Postby Blown Away » Thu Sep 06, 2018 11:14 am

12z GFS @120 miles S of 06z at @114 hours
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#1092 Postby Bocadude85 » Thu Sep 06, 2018 11:15 am

12Z Canadian with a NC landfall
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#1093 Postby txwatcher91 » Thu Sep 06, 2018 11:16 am

12z CMC is a NC landfall. UK looks like a NC landfall. GFS trending south in line with this path. Doesn't look good for NC right now and it's only 6-7 days out which is getting into the more reliable model range.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#1094 Postby AutoPenalti » Thu Sep 06, 2018 11:18 am

txwatcher91 wrote:12z CMC is a NC landfall. UK looks like a NC landfall. GFS trending south in line with this path. Doesn't look good for NC right now and it's only 6-7 days out which is getting into the more reliable model range.

The reliable range is 3 days out.
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#1095 Postby tolakram » Thu Sep 06, 2018 11:18 am

6 run trend. I prefer this plot because it shows the 500mb lines without the anomaly patches.

Image
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#1096 Postby Blown Away » Thu Sep 06, 2018 11:18 am

12z GFS @120 miles W of 06z at @144 hours
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#1097 Postby MacTavish » Thu Sep 06, 2018 11:19 am

Gordon remnants are going to be a major key player after day 4.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#1098 Postby stormlover2013 » Thu Sep 06, 2018 11:19 am

txwatcher91 wrote:12z CMC is a NC landfall. UK looks like a NC landfall. GFS trending south in line with this path. Doesn't look good for NC right now and it's only 6-7 days out which is getting into the more reliable model range.



More reliable model range isn't till 3-4 days.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#1099 Postby plasticup » Thu Sep 06, 2018 11:20 am

tolakram wrote:6 run trend. I prefer this plot because it shows the 500mb lines without the anomaly patches.

[im g]https://i.imgur.com/G4dp0if.gif[/img]

That is shockingly consistent for being so far out. GFS is sticking to its guns while the other models bounce all over.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#1100 Postby txwatcher91 » Thu Sep 06, 2018 11:21 am

AutoPenalti wrote:
txwatcher91 wrote:12z CMC is a NC landfall. UK looks like a NC landfall. GFS trending south in line with this path. Doesn't look good for NC right now and it's only 6-7 days out which is getting into the more reliable model range.

The reliable range is 3 days out.


Models can be fairly reliable in the 6-7 day range especially when there is a consensus. Obviously a lot can still change but I'd say the chances for an East Coast impact have gone up significantly with the CMC, UK and Euro consolidating on a threat and GFS shifting that way too.
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