ATL: FLORENCE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[drewschmaltz]

There is still some mid level dry air around the system which is preventing sustained deep convection you would expect in a storm about yo RI. Structure is good though which is a good starting block.

Will you point me to a good resource to see the moisture at different level?

[Blown Away]

Anybody think we see any drastic model run changes with the recon data in the 00z models???

[tolakram]

[youtube]https://youtu.be/yzcLYPEbhJM[/youtube]

[Emmett_Brown]

Anybody think we see any drastic model run changes with the recon data in the 00z models???

In recent years, I can't think of many times when it made a big difference. But, as many have pointed out, this could be one of those times, since it is a situation where strong ridging has been persistent, and the models may not have a full idea of the extent of the ridge because of data voids. For a storm that is almost 6 days from landfall, the models are beginning to get surprisingly clustered.

[gatorcane]

IMO....having been born and raised South Florida since 1957 and still a resident, I WILL NOT put my guard down until Flo starts that turn WNW/NW. She's been insistent on this westward motion for quite a while now and that gives me a very uncomfortable feeling. The models, IMO, aren't completely reliable, as we've seen the trend over the past couple days gradually move further south and west of what was originally anticipated due to the building ridge. I could be entirely off base with my comment, but I'm speaking from the heart as someone who's been through Hurricanes Donna, Cleo, Betsy, Andrew, Katrina, Wilma, and Irma; and numerous tropical storms. But, particularly with regards to Hurricane Andrew and how that storm threw a monkey wrench into the forecasts, I'm not totally convinced Flo will make that turn as soon as forecasted/anticipated, as things can change pretty quickly. I certainly hope, based on the intensity forecast, that NO ONE will have to endure a direct hit, and I implore those who are even in the vicinity of a possible brush/hit, to please make preparations!

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

Yeah I get that but today’s models are light years ahead of the models that existed back then and not one model takes it into South Florida. I am confident we are good with this storm.

On another note, looked at some news sites from outer banks and don’t see much media hype on the storm there yet. Surprising because if that track was pointing at South Florida it would be crazy here right now.

[Blown Away]

Anybody think we see any drastic model run changes with the recon data in the 00z models???

In recent years, I can't think of many times when it made a big difference. But, as many have pointed out, this could be one of those times, since it is a situation where strong ridging has been persistent, and the models may not have a full idea of the extent of the ridge because of data voids. For a storm that is almost 6 days from landfall, the models are beginning to get surprisingly clustered.

I agree, Frances was the last storm I can recall where the data had a drastic immediate track change. NHC describing the HP as 'Exceptional" I was expecting something like Ike not a typical rounding the HP into the Carolinas track.

[J_J99]

Shes closing up an eye it looks like.

[Blown Away]

Better structure, convection is modest at best.

[otowntiger]

Anybody think we see any drastic model run changes with the recon data in the 00z models???

I don’t. No more big shifts from now on.

[NC_Cyclone]

Anybody think we see any drastic model run changes with the recon data in the 00z models???

I don’t. No more big shifts from now on.

That tight of a model consensus means big shifts are over.

[Emmett_Brown]

Anybody think we see any drastic model run changes with the recon data in the 00z models???

I don’t. No more big shifts from now on.

That tight of a model consensus means big shifts are over.

Maybe so, but I can't think of another storm that was 5 days and well over 1500 miles away that landed in the exact spot the models agreed on. But, perhaps this is the one!

[tolakram]

[txwatcher91]

I don’t. No more big shifts from now on.

That tight of a model consensus means big shifts are over.

Maybe so, but I can't think of another storm that was 6 days and well over 1500 miles away that landed in the exact spot the models agreed on. But, perhaps this is the one!

It’s 5 days out from landfall at best. The 5H setup on all the globals is remarkably similar and models do much better handling track under strong steering like we will see the next few days. There will be some shifts of 50-100 miles north and south but overall they are locking in imo.

[supercane4867]

Florence is in the process of mixing out dry air from its core. Expects quicker strengthening to begin tomorrow.

[TheDreamTraveler]

I don’t. No more big shifts from now on.

That tight of a model consensus means big shifts are over.

Maybe so, but I can't think of another storm that was 6 days and well over 1500 miles away that landed in the exact spot the models agreed on. But, perhaps this is the one!

It's not 6 days out lol. You said this in the models thread as well. Impacts are going to be felt in 5 days at the latest according to the NHC's graphics.

[LarryWx]

The chances of a hit CHS south have come down a good bit from yesterday. I had thought the chance for a significant hit (not necessarily direct hit from center, which obviously has low odds) here was at about 25% as of yesterday. I do feel the chances of a significant effect here have fallen to about half that (say 1 in 8 or so). Still high enough to be wary as it would still be 5-6 days away meaning unpredictability still there, especially with 15 of 51 12Z EPS members and ~8 of 21 12Z GEPS members CHS south, but certainly encouraging trends.

Meanwhile, wherever this does hit if it does, I hope for the best. Hopefully, she’ll stay OTS, which though not likely is a legit possibility imo, especially is she gets very strong and slows down near the coast.

Edit: As of now, the UKMET with its SW misses and GFS with its NE misses especially early on are looking to end up doing worst. Typical bias related errors. But the final results are obviously still not in since there is still a good bit of uncertainty 5-6 days out.

Edit: As of now (obviously subject to change quickly), I think highest chance is NC landfall followed by center staying offshore followed by upper SC landfall.

[Emmett_Brown]

That tight of a model consensus means big shifts are over.

Maybe so, but I can't think of another storm that was 6 days and well over 1500 miles away that landed in the exact spot the models agreed on. But, perhaps this is the one!

It's not 6 days out lol. You said this in the models thread as well. Impacts are going to be felt in 5 days at the latest according to the NHC's graphics.

Yup, my mistake, I edited the models post.

[wx98]

Getting her act together once more, looking likely that it regains hurricane status in the next 12 hours.

[LarryWx]

I think it will be very important what latitude the eye forms at. As long as it doesn’t form too close to 24.0N (like, say, 24.2N) I’ll maintain my feeling that CHS south is looking much better than they did yesterday. Now if it happened to form close to 24.0, I may have to rethink that. The UKMET and its ensembles had it down there or even further south on a number of runs thus leading to far south solutions.

[wx98]

I think it will be very important what latitude the eye forms at. As long as it doesn’t form too close to 24.0N (like, say, 24.2N) I’ll maintain my feeling that CHS south is looking much better than they did yesterday. Now if it happened to form close to 24.0, I may have to rethink that. The UKMET and its ensembles had it down there or even further south on a number of runs thus leading to far south solutions.

It has been moving due west the past 5 hours, eye appears to be forming right on 24.5N.