ATL: FLORENCE - Models

[hohnywx]

12z CMC is a NC landfall. UK looks like a NC landfall. GFS trending south in line with this path. Doesn't look good for NC right now and it's only 6-7 days out which is getting into the more reliable model range.

More reliable model range isn't till 3-4 days.

and more reliable than that is 1-2 days...but the point remains that we are getting into a window where the wild swings are going to be narrower and seen less often.

[Steve]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 612&fh=138

Yeah. Ridge in, escape route closed at 138 hours (5.75 days from 7:00am CDT this morning). It will be a landfall for the GFS unless there is a stall and loop for a few days yet to come.

[AxaltaRacing24]

This is a scary run following an increasing west trend.

[Steve]

Nevertheless, GFS turns the system right into the ridge and advances it north to where it's east of the VA Coast 18 hours later. Something's dreadfully wrong with this model and the physics it sometimes shows. It's a shame too, because if they can ever figure that out, maybe it becomes a better model. But for the better part of the last 20 years, GFS and its forerunners just can't handle ridging in the Atlantic. Year after year after year after year after year it suffers the same recurve bias and breaks down strong ridges too quick.

[plasticup]

Um, is this a major hurricane in Manhattan? 932 mb would typically be a Category 4.

[tolakram]

Same curve as the 6Z, just further west. Escape route open.

[Airboy]

Going for NY?

[AxaltaRacing24]

Um, is this a major hurricane in Manhattan? 932 mb would typically be a Category 4.

Yes. This is what is called a “doomsday” model run.

[dspguy]

Gordon remnants are going to be a major key player after day 4.

Do you mind elaborating on why this is the case? I'm usually just a board lurker and usually feel silly asking meteorological questions that other board members probably all know the answer to.

[Steve]

GFS = mostly useless at this time. This is absurd.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 612&fh=168

[hohnywx]

Um, is this a major hurricane in Manhattan? 932 mb would typically be a Category 4.

Manhattan? The storm is at the latitude of Delaware in that photo?

Thankfully, the storm recurves but it gets a little too close for comfort for the tri-state.

[chris_fit]

GFS = mostly useless at this time. This is absurd.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 612&fh=168

Take a look at 186 hours - Stalling off the coast NY/NJ

[Blown Away]

12z GFS @275 miles W of 06z at @186 hrs...

Ridging much stronger on this run... May be a trend as the models get closer in?

[FLpanhandle91]

GFS = mostly useless at this time. This is absurd.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 612&fh=168

Not entirely. Intensity? Maybe. But the angle of the ridge axis would allow an opening up the east coast like that.

[Steve]

How can the freakin' CMC understand that a ridge blocks an advancing storm and turns clockwise while the GFS can't? I mean how much money have we dumped into it going back to the MRF days. We should get our tax money back for this!

Canadian = reasonable
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 612&fh=144

GFS = ridiculous
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 612&fh=156

What I will say for the GFS's depiction is that if the system stalled out or advanced slowly northward, it would indeed intensify and probably be the strongest system to threaten the NJ/NY coasts in a long, long time (maybe decades even). We'll see how that plays out. But for now, the GFS is out to lunch.

[chris_fit]

Landfall

[plasticup]

GFS = mostly useless at this time. This is absurd.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 612&fh=168

Not entirely. Intensity? Maybe. But the angle of the ridge axis would allow an opening up the east coast like that.

The gulf stream is warmer off NYC than it is near Puerto Rico:

[Steve]

GFS = mostly useless at this time. This is absurd.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 612&fh=168

Not entirely. Intensity? Maybe. But the angle of the ridge axis would allow an opening up the east coast like that.

I gotta disagree 100% FLpanhandle91. If anything, it may have the intensity close to being right. The angle it depicts on the ridge won't be right anyway. But there's no way it barrels into it like that. The height lines are too tall, and it would have to retreat even though GFS shows it building in as the storm arrives. It would never make it north of the VA Capes to begin with the scenario it depicts. I'm not usually a big GFS basher, but when it's bad, it's bad.

[FLpanhandle91]

GFS = mostly useless at this time. This is absurd.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 612&fh=168

Not entirely. Intensity? Maybe. But the angle of the ridge axis would allow an opening up the east coast like that.

The gulf stream is warmer off NYC than it is near Puerto Rico:

Yes I am aware. I was more just emphasizing the fact that intensity is going to be less certain right now and that we need to focus on the steering currents. I know SST's up the east coast are up to 5 degrees above average right now.

[Blown Away]

Landfall NY/Long Island...