ATL: MICHAEL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Steve]

Reasonable shot at a major. Has any major hit the Panhandle since Dennis and Ivan in 05? I can’t seem to remember.

[SouthDadeFish]

The wind profile is much better defined. Keep in mind the strongest winds are likely in the NE quadrant due to the direction of motion. That will be sampled last of three center fixes, according to the flight plan. All signs point to continued intensification, and possibly further RI.

[Abdullah]

Last night I said

We could very well wake up to a rapidly intensifying hurricane on this, you know.

Tonight, I'll say "We could very well wake up to a major hurricane on this, you know.

[tolakram]

Long WV loop. Shear (winds) should change to out of the SW on the west side of the storm before long.

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=regional-gulf-08-200-1-10-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

[EquusStorm]

Official forecast calls for 85kt at 0600z, that might be right on the money

[eastcoastFL]

[NDG]

Reasonable shot at a major. Has any major hit the Panhandle since Dennis and Ivan in 05? I can’t seem to remember.

Ivan '04
Dennis '05
Were the last ones to hit the Panhandle. Ivan was devastating over Perdido Key, this one wooden 3 story high Condo unit we used to rent in the summers was completely destroyed.

[psyclone]

I may be partially responsible for Michael's latest round of intensification. it seems to have commenced right after I used the adjectives large, loose and sloppy in an earlier description of the system. The latter 2 no longer apply. It will be interesting to see if we can get a period of persistent organization and intensification or even RI. It appears we're in the hunt again..

[crimi481]

Looks like going mostly north. Are the s.w. winds mentioned, keeping it from going more n.w?

[Dean4Storms]

https://apps.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/noaaport/radar_flanim.gif

Can you give me a link to that radar???? Never mind, found it!

[TJRE]

Almost closed off an eye on microwave...still open in the SW side but looks like that is going to close off soon.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... npage.html

[NDG]

They are going with 970mb, still a nice drop.


7:00 PM CDT Mon Oct 8
Location: 22.7°N 85.2°W
Moving: N at 12 mph
Min pressure: 970 mb
Max sustained: 85 mph

[Abdullah]

INIT 08/2100Z 22.2N 85.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 09/0600Z 23.7N 85.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 09/1800Z 25.7N 86.4W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 10/0600Z 27.9N 86.6W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 10/1800Z 30.2N 85.8W 100 KT 115 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
72H 11/1800Z 34.5N 80.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
96H 12/1800Z 39.8N 68.8W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 13/1800Z 46.2N 50.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
from 8:00 P.M. Forecast Discussion


Easily could be 12 hours ahead and at Category 2 right now.

[Steve]

Reasonable shot at a major. Has any major hit the Panhandle since Dennis and Ivan in 05? I can’t seem to remember.

Ivan '04
Dennis '05
Were the last ones to hit the Panhandle. Ivan was devastating over Perdido Key, this one wooden 3 story high Condo unit we used to rent in the summers was completely destroyed.

That’s right. I knew Ivan was 04 but Dennis which I think hit Santa Rosa County would have been the last one. Seems crazy to have gone 13 years since a major hurricane landfall in the FL Panhandle. Not saying Michael will be a 3, but there is a reasonable shot.

[BobHarlem]

Reasonable shot at a major. Has any major hit the Panhandle since Dennis and Ivan in 05? I can’t seem to remember.

Ivan '04
Dennis '05
Were the last ones to hit the Panhandle. Ivan was devastating over Perdido Key, this one wooden 3 story high Condo unit we used to rent in the summers was completely destroyed.

That’s right. I knew Ivan was 04 but Dennis which I think hit Santa Rosa County would have been the last one. Seems crazy to have gone 13 years since a major hurricane landfall in the FL Panhandle. Not saying Michael will be a 3, but there is a reasonable shot.

Florida went 11 years without any hurricanes, so not too crazy.

[NDG]

Reasonable shot at a major. Has any major hit the Panhandle since Dennis and Ivan in 05? I can’t seem to remember.

Ivan '04
Dennis '05
Were the last ones to hit the Panhandle. Ivan was devastating over Perdido Key, this one wooden 3 story high Condo unit we used to rent in the summers was completely destroyed.

That’s right. I knew Ivan was 04 but Dennis which I think hit Santa Rosa County would have been the last one. Seems crazy to have gone 13 years since a major hurricane landfall in the FL Panhandle. Not saying Michael will be a 3, but there is a reasonable shot.

Dennis didn't do too much damage, I drove through Navarre Beach shortly after Dennis, there was minimal damage near Hwy 98 because it had such a small core and I believe it was weakening some before landfall.

[Dean4Storms]

https://apps.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/noaaport/radar_flanim.gif

Can you give me a link to that radar????

Never mind, I found it!

[psyclone]

Ivan '04
Dennis '05
Were the last ones to hit the Panhandle. Ivan was devastating over Perdido Key, this one wooden 3 story high Condo unit we used to rent in the summers was completely destroyed.

That’s right. I knew Ivan was 04 but Dennis which I think hit Santa Rosa County would have been the last one. Seems crazy to have gone 13 years since a major hurricane landfall in the FL Panhandle. Not saying Michael will be a 3, but there is a reasonable shot.

Florida went 11 years without any hurricanes, so not too crazy.

yeah and once the 11 year streak broke it looks like we're starting a new streak of consecutive years with hits. nature has a way of balancing things out over time

[NDG]

VDM, the extrap pressure was off by a good 3 mb

[URNT12 KWBC 082353
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL142018
A. 08/23:19:25Z
B. 22.57 deg N 085.24 deg W
C. 700 MB 2879 m
D. 971 mb
E. 080 deg 10 kt
F. OPEN SSW - SSE
G. C25
H. 75 kt
I. 017 deg 19 nm 23:14:55Z
J. 117 deg 86 kt
K. 010 deg 27 nm 23:12:32Z
L. 65 kt
M. 179 deg 23 nm 23:24:40Z
N. 283 deg 82 kt
O. 179 deg 20 nm 23:24:06Z
P. 11 C / 3071 m
Q. 19 C / 3062 m
R. 9 C / NA
S. 12345 / 7
T. 0.01 / 1 nm
U. NOAA2 0614A MICHAEL OB 08
MAX FL WIND 86 KT 010 / 27 NM 23:12:32Z

[otowntiger]

Ivan '04
Dennis '05
Were the last ones to hit the Panhandle. Ivan was devastating over Perdido Key, this one wooden 3 story high Condo unit we used to rent in the summers was completely destroyed.

That’s right. I knew Ivan was 04 but Dennis which I think hit Santa Rosa County would have been the last one. Seems crazy to have gone 13 years since a major hurricane landfall in the FL Panhandle. Not saying Michael will be a 3, but there is a reasonable shot.

Florida went 11 years without any hurricanes, so not too crazy.

. But the fact that Florida went 11 years without a hurricane at all is down right right crazy! I didn’t realize that! Is that a record? Was that the gap between Wilma and Matthew?